Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance Level, Market Waits as ETF Outflows Continue and Fed Divergence Deepens Uncertainty
Odaily News Bitcoin hovered around $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.
Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more concerned about the policy uncertainty stemming from internal "division" within the Fed, rather than the inaction itself. This is especially true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh taking over, leading to a lack of clear transition in the policy path.
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support between $65,000 and $70,000. Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to sustain an upward breakout.
On the macro front, the Fed's unusually significant internal division is interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Analysis from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares indicates that expectations of "higher interest rates for longer" are suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.
Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although some individual products still saw capital inflows, the overall trend suggests institutional demand is cooling down.
Meanwhile, while CME open interest and ETF Assets Under Management (AUM) have stabilized, there are no strong signs of capital returning. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historic highs. An improvement in sentiment could trigger a squeeze, but the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.
Overall, Bitcoin is in a tug-of-war between improving support structures and weak demand. The continuous ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
