研究称预测市场价格发现主要由3%知情交易者驱动

A recent paper by researchers from London Business School and Yale University points out that the accuracy of prediction markets does not stem primarily from the "wisdom of the crowd," but is instead driven by a small number of informed traders. The study shows that only about 3% of accounts contribute to the majority of price discovery, and these traders are more effective at predicting outcomes, responding to news, and enhancing the accuracy of market pricing.

The paper also notes that while the remaining majority of participants account for most of the trading volume, the informational content of their trades is limited, and their trading losses often flow to the informed traders. The research concludes that the accuracy of prediction markets better reflects the "wisdom of the informed minority."