"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Geopolitical Conflict May Drive Up Oil Prices and Market Volatility, Requires Preemptive Strategy Formulation

Odaily According to a post by Garrett Jin, the agent for the "1011 Insider Whale," on platform X, Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has clearly escalated. Jin summarized three key impacts of this move: First, diplomatic buffers have been broken. The previously low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan regarding ship-by-ship passage may be terminated. Second, the nature of the conflict has escalated. If strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as power facilities, it will strengthen Iran's stance and increase the probability of a prolonged war. Third, oil market volatility has surged, and market mismatches have intensified. The crude oil volatility index OVX has risen to 93, while the CBOE Volatility Index VIX is around 24, with a ratio close to 4 times, indicating that oil market risks far exceed those priced into the stock market. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may continue to rise, and expectations for the duration of the conflict are being extended.