Analysis: Bitcoin Recovery Still Hampered by ETF Outflows and Strategic Selling by Large Holders, Market Sentiment Remains Cautious

According to a Bitfinex report, the Bitcoin market has recently been fluctuating within the short-term range of $65,000–$70,000, but the long-term trend remains downward. Since hitting its all-time high last October, the significant correction has persisted for over 52%. Although it rebounded about 20% from the low on February 5th, this week's price still fell below the lower end of the range and tested new lows. Macroeconomic uncertainties have intensified, especially after the Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump administration's tariff increases, leading to a recovery in precious metals like gold and silver, while crypto market traders continue to pay premiums for downside protection. The Exchange Whale Ratio indicates that recent Bitcoin inflows into exchanges primarily originated from large holders. Such concentrated inflows typically signify strategic selling rather than short-term forced liquidations or retail investor sell-offs. Large holders may be selling at key structural levels or during fixed daily timeframes, reflecting intentional market positioning. Last week, the options market reduced downside protection for the first time, but influenced by tariff news, traders did not re-establish long positions, only adjusting for extreme tail risks. Short-term expiry contract trading data shows market sentiment leans towards caution rather than optimism.