10,129 players lost an average of 47% in the bloody fund market FairWin

DappReview

特邀专栏作者

2019-10-07 02:32

This article is about 3692 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

An in-depth analysis of FairWin.

Editor's Note: This article comes fromDappReviewEditor's Note: This article comes from

(ID: dappreview), author: DR buddy, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Guide: The motivation of most users to participate in the fund market/Ponzi Dapp is to speculate to make money, and most of these products also seize the greed of human nature when they are promoted, amplifying the space and possibility of income to attract funds to enter the market. In fact, after the first round of the FairWin game, which is famous for its gas consumption, crashed recently, DappReview did a deep mining of the data and found that the truth is crueler than imagined, and the biggest winner is none other than the FairWin trader. This article will analyze the income and distribution of the players in the first round of FairWin, and take a player with 62 times the income as an example to explore the factors that increase the probability of profit.Since early September, an unknown contract has attracted the attention of ETH ecosystem developers and communities. The daily Gas consumption of this contract has increased at an astonishing rate, and the daily Gas consumption has gradually accounted for 30-40% of the entire ETH network, with a single-day peak exceeding 500 ETH, topping the Gas consumption list for nearly a month in a row.

As of October 1st, the accumulated Gas consumption totaled as high as 8691 ETH, worth more than 10 million RMB.

The purpose of users pouring into the plate is nothing more than four words: speculation and making money.

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So does FairWin really allow users to make money?

The first round of FairWin started on June 18, and a new contract was replaced at the end of July due to the risk of contract loopholes. Finally, it crashed on the evening of September 30 UTC (morning of October 1, Beijing time), and the contract balance returned to zero. .

DappReview has counted all the data in the old and new contracts. In the first round of FairWin, the inflow totaled more than 690,000 ETH, and a total of 19,208 addresses participated in this round of games. Among them:
10,129 addresses have negative returns, with an average return of -47.59%
763 addresses have no loss and no profit, just to recover the principal

763 addresses have no loss and no profit, just to recover the principal

As a zero-sum game, there are only two types of players in the end, winners and losers.
Winner: 8,316 addresses returned 69,234 ETH on paper, earning an average of 8.32 ETH per address

Losers: 10,129 addresses lost 97,019 ETH on paper, with an average loss of 9.57 ETH per address

The book figures do not match the numbers?Oh, and there is another type of player - the dealer.They hid behind the scenes and took 4% of the handling fee from each "investment", with a total income of 27,785 ETH (about 34 million RMB).

0x854d359a586244c9e02b57a37c70a4dc21ffcaa8d

All the money flowed into the official account of FairWin:

This is the "real big winner" behind FairWin.

Let's take a look at the income of ordinary users. In the figure above, among the top ten income rankings, only 3 addresses have an income of more than 300%, and all of them have earned more than 700 ETH. This is really the "king". Level winners too. In addition, there are 2 other addresses with a return rate of more than 300%, but they are not included in the list due to the low return of ETH.

According to the overall statistics, there are a total of 76 addresses with a rate of return exceeding 100%, which means that among the 8316 winners, less than 1% of them have doubled or higher returns. Looking at the income of ETH, a total of 96 addresses have earned more than 100 ETH, and about 1.1% of users have obtained very considerable ETH income.

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What about the benefits for most of the rest of the population?

From a percentage yield perspective:

After excluding 76 king winners, it can be seen that the rate of return of the vast majority of winners (profitable users) is within the range of 1-20%. The loss ratio of loss-making users is either in the range of -50% to 0%, or in the range of -90% to all losses.

From the perspective of ETH earnings:

To sum up, if you participate in FairWin, you have a 40% chance of being lucky enough to be among the 8316 winners. If nothing else, your final income is likely to be within 0 - 8 ETH. However, you still have a probability of more than 55% to enter the army of loss-making leeks. As a leek, this knife will either cut you in half or uproot you. There is still less than 5% probability that you just become a passerby, tossing around for a long time, but did not make any money, but burned a lot of Gas Fee.

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How to have a greater chance of becoming part of the 8316 winners?

The above figure reflects the final income status of new users every day after the first round of crash. It is not difficult to see that among the new users who entered the market before September, the vast majority of the final status is profitable, and since September, The later you enter the market, the greater the proportion of loss-making users, and the new users who entered the market after September 26 are basically wiped out.

The reason is simple, if you enter the market early, you will not lose

The above figure reflects the distribution of the final return rate of new users every day. Most of the users who entered the market in June and July had positive returns, and they were generally high (most of the winners with 200% + returns were users who entered the market at this time). Since mid-August, there have been more and more users with negative returns, and the range of negative returns has moved down significantly.

From the perspective of the final ETH income, the winners who earned excess income (300+ETH) had entered the market before August.

The reason is simple, enter the market early, earn more

The trigger point at the end of each round of FairWin is that the contract balance returns to zero. Under the mechanism of the game, once the outflow of funds starts to exceed the inflow of funds, the collapse is not far away. In the first round of the game, the amount of capital inflow was greater than the amount of capital outflow every week before mid-September, which also made the balance in the contract continue to rise, reaching a peak of 49,000 ETH.

We must know that with the acceleration of the process, more capital inflows will be needed to support the profits of all players in the early stage. Starting from September 27th, the outflow of funds is greater than the inflow of funds for 4 consecutive days, and the difference is getting bigger and bigger, only 4 days Over time, the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds will consume the balance accumulated in the contract for nearly 100 days.

It can be seen that until the last few days, loyal players have been practicing reinvestment. Even though the contract balance has been falling precipitously, there are still some old players (more than 4 reinvestments) who invest on the eve of the crash on the last day.

Returning to the topic, let’s continue to discuss how to increase the probability of making profits in FairWin. Let’s study and learn from 0xb8b54e81, which earned 872 ETHs and earned 872 ETH. Below we refer to it as Brother B for short. First, let’s take a look at the investment records of Brother B’s account:

Brother B’s case is a good illustration of how to make money in the fund game:
Entered the market early, invested for the first time on June 26, and was regarded as the first batch of users
Using the game mechanism, Brother B withdraws the principal every five days and reinvests immediately

From the first day of investment, Brother B has also started the road of evangelism (CX). There have always been users recommended by Brother B to recharge. The recommended users of Brother B have invested a total of 1211 ETH

In the above, we mentioned that the calculation method of the rate of return does not reflect the real situation. Brother B is a typical example. If you follow the calculation logic of the rate of return above:

(total amount of received ETH/total input amount of ETH) - 1

Brother B’s total investment, that is, the red histogram in the picture above, has accumulated 256 ETH, and the total income is the green histogram in the above picture, with a total of 1128.52 ETH, and the rate of return of Brother B can be calculated at 340%.

But in fact, we can see that Brother B invested a total of 14 ETH twice before June 26 and June 27. After the funds were unfrozen for five days, Brother B just used the unfrozen funds to continue reinvesting. This time, the reinvestment totaled 15ETH , reached the upper limit of VIP3. Since then, withdraw the principal of 15ETH every 5 days and reinvest immediately.

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Summarize

SummarizeFocus on answering the opening questions:

How to have a greater chance of becoming part of the 8316 winners?
early entry
Get back the principal and reinvest (also pay attention to the trend of the contract balance)

Send your own referral link around

But with so much tossing, it is really rare to be able to become a person like Brother B. The ending of the first round of FairWin can be described as tragic, with an average loss of 47% for more than 10,000 addresses. Among the winners, ordinary users only earned a few hundred to a few thousand dollars, but took the risk of being cut with a high probability. For the big profits, only FairWIn's traders count the money happily behind the scenes, and a few veterans like Brother B make money like breathing with their ability and execution ability.

For this type of game, DappReview aims to let everyone see its real risks and actual profit distribution through this in-depth data analysis. If you just want to participate in a game to earn excess returns, you will most likely become one of the above One of the little red dots on the chart. We advise all currency holders to invest cautiously, stay away from such funds, and don't lick blood.

If you are a long-term ETH holder and want to earn more ETH with low risk, instead of participating in high-risk funds, you might as well go to Binance to have a look at Binance Bao, which has an annualized ETH of 6% (participate every half a month, lie down Earn coins and be happy):

Or other DeFi lending platforms (ETH interest rates are relatively low) and trusted centralized platforms.

After the first round of FairWin ended, the second round of the game started 3 days later. Even affected by the tragic ending of the first round, in less than 2 days, 351 users still invested 4296 ETH, of which:

There are 206 addresses who participated in the first round of the game, 148 addresses were profitable users in the first round, and 58 were loss-making users.

Other imitation disks such as ETH Magician started on September 28 and attracted 2,541 user investments within a week, of which 304 users came from FairWin, of which 261 addresses made profits in the first round of FairWin, and 43 lost money.

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