BitMart 연구소 주간 핫이슈: 글로벌 유동성, AI 테마에 집중되며 암호화폐 시장은 관망세
- 핵심 전망: 현재 글로벌 위험 자산은 AI 테마가 주도하고 있으며, 암호화폐 시장의 유동성은 흡수되어 주식 시장보다 약세를 보이고 있습니다. 중동 정세 완화로 단기적 꼬리 위험이 해소되었고, AI 기술주는 거품의 중후반부에 진입한 것으로 평가되지만 단기 추세는 여전히 강합니다. 반면, 암호화폐 시장은 독자적인 상승 동력이 부족하며, 진정한 기회는 AI 거품이 해소된 이후에 나타날 가능성이 있습니다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 중동 분쟁이 기본적인 합의에 도달하고 협상 시한을 연장하면서, 꼬리 위험이 일시적으로 해소되어 지정학적 리스크가 자산 시장에 미치는 영향은 줄어들 것으로 예상됩니다.
- AI 기술주는 퀀트 기관들이 거품의 중후반부라고 판단하며, 향후 3개월간 추가 상승 가능성은 있으나 1~3년 기준 위험-수익 비율은 악화되고 있습니다. 2000년과 달리 현재 AI 인프라는 뚜렷한 과잉 공급 상태는 아닙니다.
- SpaceX가 6월 대규모 IPO(기업가치 1.5~2조 달러)를 추진할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 유동성 흡수 효과를 일으켜 AI 기술주 조정을 촉발할 수 있습니다.
- 연준의 잠재적 정책 프레임워크 변화(예: 기존 QE/QT 반대, 사전 안내 약화)는 향후 시장 변동성(VIX)을 다시 상승시킬 수 있습니다.
- 암호화폐 시장은 전반적으로 AI 자산보다 약세를 보이며, BTC ETF는 이번 주 약 11.8억 달러 순유출을 기록했고, 옵션 시장 심리는 약세로 전환되었습니다(Deribit Skew가 16%로 상승).
- MicroStrategy는 BTC를 추가 매수한 것으로 추정되며(총 보유량 약 84만 BTC), ETH는 기술 스토리로 인해 여전히 기관 자금 유입을 받고 있습니다(예: BMNR이 약 7만 ETH 추가 매수).
I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets
1.1 Easing Tensions in the Middle East: Phased Removal of Tail Risk
Last week, the market was highly worried about the escalation of the US-Iran situation. Trump even canceled attending his child's wedding, the Pentagon's pizza index rose abnormally, and the market as a whole entered a pricing phase of "imminent war." Oil prices surged, and global risk assets came under significant pressure. However, the situation quickly showed signs of easing. The two sides eventually reached a preliminary framework agreement and agreed to extend the negotiation window by about 60 days. The tail risk of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East has been temporarily lifted.
As risk sentiment recovered, the US stock market regained strength, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hitting new cyclical highs. From the current perspective, geopolitics is gradually shifting from the previous "maximum pressure" to a "long-term deadlock." The market generally believes that large-scale military action is now a low-probability event. Subsequent discussions will more likely focus on the Strait of Hormuz, security arrangements, and sanctions. In the absence of new unexpected events, the disruption of geopolitics to risk assets is expected to gradually diminish.
1.2 AI Tech Stocks: Bubble in Mid-to-Late Stage, but Short-Term Trend Remains Strong
Currently, global risk assets are still driven by the AI theme. US, Japanese, and South Korean stock markets continue to strengthen. In particular, the South Korean market maintains a clear uptrend, driven by SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and other AI-related companies. Discussions within the market regarding the AI bubble stage are also heating up.
Some quantitative institutions, after evaluating based on multiple indicators from the Nasdaq bubble period in 2000, believe that AI tech stocks have now entered the mid-to-late stage of a bubble. Models suggest that over the next three months, AI tech stocks may still maintain a low-drawdown uptrend with relatively attractive average potential returns. However, the risk-reward ratio over the next 1-3 years is beginning to deteriorate, and the probability of high volatility and deep drawdowns is increasing.
Nevertheless, the biggest difference from the 2000 internet bubble is that the AI infrastructure itself has not yet shown significant overcapacity. Sectors like computing power, storage, bandwidth, and energy are still in a phase of continuous expansion. Therefore, the industry's fundamentals remain strong; the bubble exists more in the secondary market valuations. The current market has already priced in several years' worth of future earnings expectations. The valuations of many AI leaders already correspond to growth potential over the next 2-5 years. Once subsequent earnings fail to meet expectations, or if capital expenditure pressures exceed cash flow capabilities, market volatility could significantly increase.
1.3 SpaceX IPO and Q4 AI Bubble Stress Test
The market is now beginning to focus on several potential key risk nodes, including the continued expansion of capital expenditure by tech giants, the future IPOs of high-valuation AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, and the massive IPO of SpaceX scheduled for June.
Among these, SpaceX could become one of the largest IPOs in history. The market estimates its valuation could reach $1.5-2 trillion, with a financing scale of approximately $75 billion. Although its long-term narratives like space data centers and Mars colonization have immense potential, the company is still operating at a loss, and xAI has a very high cash burn rate. Therefore, the market is essentially valuing it based on a "deep out-of-the-money call option" logic rather than a traditional cash flow model.
If SpaceX's listing creates a significant liquidity suction effect, it could trigger a phased correction in AI tech stocks ahead of schedule. The market generally believes that starting from the end of Q3, the risk-reward ratio for AI tech stocks will significantly worsen, and Q4 could enter a phase of high volatility and sharp fluctuations. However, in the current environment where global funds are highly concentrated on the AI theme, the AI industry chain remains the strongest consensus for capital allocation in the short term.
1.4 Potential Shift in the Fed's Framework: Volatility May Rise Again
The recent content of Kevin Warsh's hearing has also attracted market attention. Based on his statements, some of his views differ significantly from the Powell-era Fed framework, including opposition to the traditional QE/QT framework, downplaying forward guidance, and emphasizing the market's own punishment and reward mechanisms.
The market worries that if the Fed gradually weakens its proactive smoothing of market volatility, the volatility (VIX) that has been suppressed in recent years could rebound. Additionally, the market is starting to focus on whether the US might adjust its inflation statistical framework in the future. If real inflation rises again while the Fed's response lags, the bond market might start pricing in the risk of the "Fed falling behind the inflation curve."
Overall, the market's expectation of decreasing transparency in future Fed policy and increasing volatility is strengthening.
II. Crypto Market
2.1 BTC Weakly Oscillating, Market Funds Still Concentrated on AI Assets
Although easing geopolitical risks have driven a rebound in global risk assets, the overall performance of the Crypto market remains significantly weaker than AI tech stocks. Currently, the main flow of market funds is still concentrated in the AI industry chain, and there are no clear signs of "AI profit-taking spilling over into Crypto."
The recent strategic deployments by major exchanges also reflect this trend shift. Areas like Prediction Markets, US stock contracts, and AI-related assets are becoming new focal points, while the narrative appeal of traditional altcoins continues to decline. In this cycle, the fund relationship between Crypto and AI differs markedly from previous bull runs. The market has not formed an obvious liquidity spillover effect, leading to overall cautious sentiment towards small and mid-cap altcoin assets.
2.2 ETF and Derivatives Data: Market Sentiment Turns Weaker
ETF flows continued to weaken. This week, BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.18 billion, with overall trading volume declining simultaneously, indicating a decrease in institutional risk appetite.
Regarding on-chain and derivatives data, BTC Open Interest has fallen in tandem with the price decline. The Funding Rate, which was significantly negative, has turned positive again as some short positions began to exit. However, the spot CVD remains weak, and the recovery in proactive buying is limited.
Sentiment in the options market has turned bearish again. The Deribit Skew has rebounded to around 16%, and Put option premiums have returned to relatively extreme levels, indicating a significant increase in market hedging demand. Overall, the current Crypto market still lacks new incremental capital drivers.
2.3 MicroStrategy Continues Accumulation, ETH Retains Tech Narrative
This week, MicroStrategy is suspected of adding approximately 30,000 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total holdings to nearly 840,000 BTC. Its buying pace has significantly intensified compared to earlier periods. Some market views suggest this is essentially a continuous bet on the long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit.
Although ETH's price performance has been weaker than BTC recently, it still retains some "tech asset" characteristics, including the potential for synergy between its on-chain ecosystem and innovations in AI and smart contracts. Consequently, some institutional funds continue to allocate to it. For instance, BMNR increased its ETH holdings by approximately 70,000 this week.
In comparison, BTC currently leans more towards being a macro asset, while ETH still carries some tech-growth narrative.
2.4 Long-Term Perspective: After the AI Bubble Unwinds, Crypto May See a Real Opportunity
The most prominent characteristic of the current market remains that "AI stands alone." Traditional stocks, altcoins, and most risk assets are continuously having their liquidity drained by the AI sector.
Some market participants believe that the truly suitable time for large-scale allocation to Crypto might be after AI tech stocks undergo a systemic "valuation correction." If the AI bubble experiences a phased clearance, BTC could also see a significant decline simultaneously. However, that point might precisely form an important bottom area for a new Crypto cycle.
Overall, we are still in a phase where AI dominates global liquidity, and the Crypto market temporarily lacks an independent bullish narrative.
This article is solely market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.
