Prediction markets price roughly 74% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady in September
2026-08-17 21:27
Odaily News: Multiple prediction markets are converging on their pricing for the Federal Reserve's September meeting outcome: roughly 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point hike, and close to 1% probability of a cut.
Polymarket's related contract volume reached $33.9 million; Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, shows roughly a 71% probability for that option.
At the Fed's July meeting, the committee voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members supporting a hike. The FOMC will meet on September 15-16, with a statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026. (Decrypt)
Polymarket's related contract volume reached $33.9 million; Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, shows roughly a 71% probability for that option.
At the Fed's July meeting, the committee voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members supporting a hike. The FOMC will meet on September 15-16, with a statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026. (Decrypt)
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