Prior to the nonfarm payrolls report, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 68.5%.
2026-07-02 12:24
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in July is 68.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 31.5%. By September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 49.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 15.1%. By October, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate is 27.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 46.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 22.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point hike is 3.3%.
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