Osasuna denies involvement in Kalshi relegation prediction rumors, regulatory attention on prediction market "insurance-like" mechanism

Odaily Planet Daily News Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently been embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Previously, market sources indicated that the trading volume of a Kalshi contract related to the club rapidly increased, reaching approximately $591,600. The market predicted the club's potential relegation from La Liga in the 2025–2026 season, sparking speculation that the club might be "betting against itself" to hedge against the revenue risk of relegation.

In response, Osasuna publicly denied any direct participation in prediction market transactions, emphasizing that it "has never placed bets on Kalshi or any similar platform." The club also confirmed that it purchased approximately €1.2 million in relegation risk insurance through insurance broker Howden. Kalshi, on its part, stated that the event is more akin to the redistribution of traditional insurance risks within the prediction market: with the insurance broker assuming the risk hedge rather than the club directly engaging in trades, and described the structure as functionally similar to a reinsurance mechanism.

Notably, despite Osasuna losing a crucial match, the club ultimately managed to avoid relegation as its competitors failed to surpass them in points.

This incident has also sparked discussions on the boundaries of prediction market usage: it is evolving from a speculative tool to a real-world risk hedging instrument and may play an "insurance-like" role in sports finance.

Meanwhile, Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs has launched regulatory investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding the temporary blocking of the relevant platforms on grounds of operating without a license. However, officials emphasized that this action is not directly related to the Osasuna incident. (Fortune)