Jefferies: ECB May Raise Rates Only Once

Odaily Planet Daily News Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar stated in a report that the market has fully anticipated the European Central Bank's 25 basis point rate hike tonight, which will also be the only rate hike by the ECB in this current tightening cycle. The next possible window for a rate hike is in September, when the new ECB staff projections will be released. In an optimistic scenario, the war might have ended by then, with oil prices near $80, which would reduce the necessity for another rate hike. Even in a pessimistic scenario—where the war continues, oil prices approach $100, and the European economy nears or falls into recession—the ECB would not hike rates consecutively against a backdrop of recession. (Jin Shi)