Bitcoin model predicts year-end high of up to $255,000, long-term valuation range shifts to $308,000

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its historical high in October 2025, but long-term valuation models indicate significant upside potential remains. Based on the "Bitcoin Decay Channel's" calculation of long-term trends, the conservative year-end range for Bitcoin has been raised to $90,000–$255,000, with the high-end scenario potentially reaching $255,000.

By fitting the logarithmic decay trends of cycle highs and lows, the model shows that BTC's cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all approached the upper band, while bear market bottoms retreated near the lower band. Analyst Sminston stated that Bitcoin is still within a historic long-term upward channel and pointed out that the price range for 2027 could further expand to $128,000–$308,000.

Meanwhile, the on-chain "HODL Waves" indicator suggests a potential bottom range near $65,900–$70,500, implying limited downside if the market continues to weaken. Some institutions like Bernstein maintain a $150,000 target for 2026, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes BTC could still challenge levels above $126,000, driven by liquidity. (Cointelegraph)