K33: Current market trends differ from past bear market rallies; Bitcoin's $60,000 may mark the cycle bottom

Odaily Planet Daily reports that crypto research firm K33 stated that although Bitcoin has fallen about 6% after retesting its 200-day moving average near $82,000 this month, the low of around $60,000 in February this year is still likely to be the maximum drawdown of this cycle. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rallies of 2014, 2018, and 2022, the current market experienced a slow 189-day recovery after breaking below the 200-day moving average, and market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend appears more like a moderate correction rather than a precursor to another significant downturn.

K33 also noted that institutional capital flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F data shows that institutional investors reduced their holdings by a net total of approximately 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC. Neutral strategy institutions such as Jane Street and Millennium contributed the majority of the reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded their 9th largest five-day capital outflow since the launch of US spot ETFs. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC is near the cost basis of ETF holdings, reflecting investors' tendency to stop losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing significant drawdowns. (The Block)