Bitget Dialogue with Lin Wanwan: Seizing the Kondratiev Wave of the Era, Understanding “Trump Trades”, and the Cross-Border Investment Logic of AI, Crypto, and US Stocks

Cryptocurrencies and US stocks may seem like two截然不同的 worlds, but they are increasingly converging in the portfolios of many investors. How can we use the research framework of traditional finance to understand the crypto market? How do we find our own asset allocation logic between these two markets?

Today, we have invited Lin Wanwan. She previously worked at a traditional financial research institute. Her life重心 moving to Singapore led her to the crypto industry, where she has since delved deep into AI agents, crypto research, and US stock investments. She is not the type of investor who relies on luck for quick gains, but a thinker who uses research frameworks and认知差异 to seek out opportunities with certainty.

From Traditional Finance to a Staunch Bitcoin Holder: The Long-term Conviction Behind Buying the Dip

Lin Wanwan’s entry into the crypto industry was driven by two key catalysts:

The first was a change in geographical location. After her family moved to Singapore, her life重心 followed. While rebuilding her social circle there, she discovered that many of her old friends were OGs in the crypto space. “After communicating with them, I realized this industry has immense appeal.”

She compared the ecosystems of traditional finance and crypto: “Honestly, traditional finance has somewhat lost its vitality. Many people say the crypto field is full of scams or shady dealings. But in this industry, I feel a sense of passion and勇往直前 in people doing what they love. This charm deeply moved me.”

The second was a book. She read “囤 Bitcoin” written by the author Jiushen. This book, written in 2018, accurately predicted that Bitcoin would rise to around $100,000 between 2024 and 2025. “I happened to come across this book right around the time Bitcoin hit $100,000. I thought, how could this person have made such an accurate prediction back in 2018?”

What resonated with her even more was a long-term forecast in the book – the author believed Bitcoin’s price could reach around $200,000 in 20 years. “I don’t know if it will come true, but it is indeed trending in that general direction. If you believe it can rival gold in 20 years, why not accumulate some as part of your asset allocation? It might offer better investment returns than gold.” She later looked up Michael Saylor’s speech at a Bitcoin conference and found a similar logic. Saylor mentioned that buying Bitcoin between 2022 and 2025 was like buying land in New York City in 1790.

“Although people think Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars is already expensive, in the grand sweep of history, it is still in its very early stages.”

These two catalysts combined led her to fully commit to the crypto industry and form her core holding strategy for Bitcoin: Hold the coin, forget the price. First, decide whether to hold, then how much to hold, regardless of the price.

Regarding Bitcoin’s short-term volatility, she has a very clear psychological framework. “I have a position management strategy for Bitcoin – buy the dip. This money is firstly not needed for the next few years, and secondly, the lower it goes, the happier I am, because I can buy more coins with the same capital.”

She even said something surprising to many: “I’m actually grateful for the dips. Personally, I think there’s still room for it to fall in the short term. That’s fine; I can just keep buying more.”

This mindset stems from a deep recognition of the asset’s long-term value, not a gambler’s luck in short-term bets.

AI, Crypto, US Stocks: One Answer – Why AI is the Most Important Investment Trend Now

Asked about the impact of her traditional finance background on her crypto investment career, Lin Wanwan’s answer started from the word “perspective”: “The biggest gain from finance is a matter of perspective. Artists have their perspective, philosophers have theirs, and investment is also a very important perspective.” She gave a vivid example: “Before adopting the investment perspective, looking at a cup of milk tea, I only cared if it tasted good. Using the investment perspective, you look at that milk tea and think about the rent cost, the labor cost. It gives you a completely different way of observing.”

Armed with this framework, facing the current market landscape, she formed a clear judgment: AI is the most important direction of this era, and it is not separate from crypto and US stocks.

Lin Wanwan’s Twitter bio features four key terms: AI Agent, Crypto Research, US Stocks, Prediction Markets. When asked which direction she is focusing on most this year, her answer was direct: AI has been moved to the top of her list this year. However, she stressed these four areas cannot be viewed in isolation. “Especially the first three; they complement and intersect with each other.”

She elaborated on her reasoning: During this bear market, the crypto industry is undergoing a narrative shift, increasingly becoming the underlying computing and accounting tool for AI, with its independence declining. Meanwhile, more and more crypto-related companies are listing on US stock exchanges, and Nasdaq is also promoting the tokenization of US stocks – the three directions are converging into one. “Therefore, the largest weight in my US stock portfolio is AI-related. My research into AI also serves my US stock investments.”

She quoted the late Chinese chief economist Zhou Jintao to support this view: “Life’s wealth depends on the Kondratiev wave. Whether you can make money essentially doesn’t depend on how hard you try, but on whether you can seize the trend the era presents you. You might encounter three to five such opportunities in your life, and that’s more than enough.”

In her view, AI is the window opening in this era, similar to Beijing’s 2nd Ring Road property 20 years ago, or Apple stock 20 years ago. “It wasn’t important to buy an Apple phone 20 years ago, but it was crucial to buy Apple stock 20 years ago. What we need to think about now is, in this AI era, what is the equivalent of Apple 20 years ago?”

Finding the answer to this question is precisely what she, using her traditional financial research perspective, continuously seeks at the intersection of crypto and US stocks.

Understanding “Trump Trades”: Finding Buying Opportunities in Others’ Fear

Asked about her most profitable investments recently, Lin Wanwan mentioned she bottom-fished during last year’s tariff shocks and this year’s war-related market lows, notably buying Nvidia around $93 last year.

The logic supporting these two trades stemmed from her research on Trump before his inauguration and the tariff war:

First, she reviewed the market reactions during Trump’s previous term. “Trump has the nickname ‘The King of Understanding.’ Essentially, he has a very high认知 of the US stock market. I reviewed how the market reacted to his policies during his last term – tariffs caused market crashes, followed by very strong reversals.”

Second, she read Trump’s autobiography. She discovered two notable traits: first, he has a penchant for deliberate exaggeration, using “reasonable lies” as a negotiation tactic; second, he is extremely skilled at using language to achieve the same effect as actual policies. “When he engages in this kind of language manipulation of the market, he is actually handing you an opportunity to get in.”

Around March or April last year, there were talks in the market about a “once-in-a-century depression like 1929.” Lin Wanwan says she completely disagrees with this view. “I think this is the opportunity Trump gives you. Both short-term traders and medium-term investors should thank Trump – the volatility he intentionally creates provides traders with many opportunities for upside profit.”

She summarized her operational logic: Buy the rumor, sell the news, sell into certainty. The uncertainty Trump creates is, paradoxically, a signal to enter.

Crypto is Zero-Sum, US Stocks are Win-Win – Q&A with Lin Wanwan

What is your single most favored asset right now?

Nvidia. I think it has the potential to be the Apple of 20 years ago. So for me, it’s a long-term hold, my core position. I have some conviction in it.

But Nvidia’s performance this year hasn’t been particularly stellar; it’s been consolidating. Does that shake your conviction?

Indeed, it has been range-bound and consolidating between $170 and $200 for quite a while. It tests your patience. But precisely because of this, my attitude towards Nvidia differs from other hot sectors – with others, I might be more flexible and sell high, but with Nvidia, I keep a portion of my position for long-term holding and don’t easily trade it. A core position is a core position; you can’t lose faith just because of short-term consolidation.

If you were given $1 million US dollars right now, how would you allocate it?

First, I would ask myself three questions: What are the liquidity requirements for this money? Will I need it in the next few years? Is my overall allocation framework already established? Does the current market offer more opportunities, or can my personal alpha outperform the market?

Based on this thinking framework, my actual current allocation is roughly: 40% in crypto, primarily a core Bitcoin position; 30% in US stocks; 30% held as cash.

Keeping this much cash is because I believe there is still significant potential for market volatility, including the US market being at relatively high levels. Holding cash means keeping dry powder – when a real downturn comes, you won’t be fully invested and helpless in the face of a true opportunity. With dry powder in hand, you can act decisively when others are panicking.

What cognitive advice do you have for investors looking to move from crypto to US stocks?

I asked a friend why he doesn’t buy US stocks. He replied, “My counterparties in the US stock market are Buffett and Duan Yongping; I feel I can’t win.” This answer made me realize the massive difference between crypto thinking and US stock thinking.

Crypto is a zero-sum game mindset; when you win, you take someone else’s money. But US stocks are different – it’s a more long-term investment logic. If Buffett makes money, I can make money too. We can learn their methodology and make money together. The capital capacity in US stocks is huge; institutional players don’t even notice our small capital. As long as your methodology is sound enough and you’re patient enough, ordinary investors can achieve steady results in this market.

How should one specifically get started with US stocks?

I suggest a two-step approach.

Step one: Spend time learning the overall investment framework. Understand what determines stock prices – the macro environment, company financials, industry fundamentals. This is the foundation and cannot be skipped.

Step two: Learn about the CFD instrument and understand its role in amplifying leverage in US stocks. It’s very suitable for event-driven short-term trading, such as the short-term rallies following confirmed peace talks. Using small capital with leverage to capture these defined opportunities offers good risk-reward. I believe platforms like Bitget that offer CFDs could very well produce star traders specializing in news-driven events in the future.