Shooting, Polls, and the Ballroom: Trump’s New Midterm Chess Game

It was a typical but harrowing night at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.

Approximately 2,600 people attended, with Vice President Vance, FBI Director Patel, and key cabinet officials all present. Trump himself sat at the head table, and the evening's entertainer was magician Oz Pearlman. In fact, this was the first time Trump attended the annual gala as a sitting president. He had refused to attend for his entire first term, as his relationship with the media has been at an all-time low.

Secret Service agents shielding Trump

When the shooting occurred, it was just minutes before the dinner was set to formally begin. The Trumps had barely settled at the head table when gunfire erupted from the direction of the security checkpoint. 31-year-old Allen had checked into the hotel as a guest the day before, quietly smuggling a disassembled shotgun into his room. After a night of preparation, he rushed past metal detectors, armed with a shotgun, a handgun, and several knives.

CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer, standing just a few feet from the gunman, described witnessing the shooter fire at least six times, wielding "a very deadly weapon." One Secret Service agent was hit, but his bulletproof vest saved his life. Allen was subsequently subdued and taken down.

The Attacker Previously Donated to Harris

Investigations into attacker Allen by Western media reveal a typical elite California STEM graduate based on his educational background.

Caltech has an acceptance rate of just 2.3% to 3.8%, enrolling only 220 to 250 students annually, with an average SAT score range of 1530 to 1580. Allen graduated with a Bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering from there in 2017, and earned a Master's in Computer Science from California State University, Dominguez Hills in 2025. A computer science professor who taught him told the Associated Press that Allen always sat in the front row, frequently emailed questions about coursework, was gentle, and was a good person.

Attacker Allen

After graduating, Allen worked part-time as a tutor at a tutoring center called C2 Education, being named "Tutor of the Month" in December 2024, helping students prepare for college entrance exams. He also developed his own independent video games, selling them on the Steam platform for $1.99.

To outsiders, he seemed completely unremarkable. A 17-year-old high school student he tutored told NPR: "He was just a bit of a nerdy smart guy."

Allen embodied human complexity and duality.

In recent years, Allen gradually became involved in left-wing activism in Los Angeles, while also purchasing firearms and regularly practicing at shooting ranges. His social media was filled with anti-Trump and anti-Christian content. He participated in "No Kings" protests in California and joined a social justice organization called "The Wide Awakes," a name derived from the 1860s abolitionist youth movement dedicated to electing Lincoln.

'No Kings' protest targeting Trump

In October 2024, he donated $25 to the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue, earmarked for the Harris presidential campaign. However, voter registration records show he was registered to vote as "No Party Preference" in Los Angeles County.

This background is not difficult to understand. The educational environment of an elite California tech school, the deep-blue political ecosystem of the California area, and the political climate of Trump's second term reflected by the "No Kings" protests collectively formed the soil for his ideological radicalization.

His sister told agents and investigators that Allen was accustomed to making radical statements, constantly mentioning doing "something" to fix the world's problems. In recent years, he frequently trained at shooting ranges, storing his firearms at his parents' house without their knowledge.

About ten minutes before the attack, he texted his family a document resembling a final statement. Content obtained by CNN showed he apologized to "parents, coworkers, students, bystanders," stating his targets were "administration officials, from highest to lowest, prioritized."

How Will This Shooting Impact the Midterm Elections?

This is at least the third attack targeting Trump in the past two years.

In the summer of 2024, it formed one of the most dramatic arcs in Trump's political narrative. At the Butler rally, the wounded Trump raised his fist high, ear bleeding, with the American flag as a backdrop, creating one of the most iconic political images in recent years, which was widely believed to have directly boosted his subsequent election prospects.

But today's political climate is vastly different from 2024. About six months before the midterm elections, Trump's approval rating has fallen into the mid-30% range. In several polls by Reuters, the Associated Press, and others, Trump receives low marks for his handling of the economy, immigration, and the war with Iran. Political scientist Nolan Higdon directly pointed out that the shooting is "unlikely to reverse the president's declining approval ratings" because criticism mainly stems from issues Trump cannot change quickly: the Iran situation and economic pressures, all of which will persist before the midterms.

Nevertheless, the incident provides Trump with significant political capital that shouldn't be underestimated.

Trump himself embraced this "honor" in his characteristic way. He stated he views surviving multiple assassination attempts as proof of his historical significance, expressing determination not to let danger alter his public schedule. He said at a press conference: "When you look at people who have experienced assassination attempts—successful or not—they are big figures. Just look at those names. I have to say, I feel honored by it."

He transforms threats into a narrative of legend and escapes into signs of divine mandate.

However, this time, the Trump administration chose not to direct the blame towards the Democratic Party. This is noteworthy. After the 2024 assassination attempt, the Trump camp's first reaction was to blame the Democrats' "inflammatory rhetoric," shifting responsibility for the climate of hatred onto their opponents. This time, facing a shooter who donated to Harris and participated in "No Kings" protests, Trump chose the "lone wolf" framework.

The reason is not hard to deduce: Attacker Allen's political profile is complex enough, but the chain of evidence is fragile. A $25 donation to Democrats and a 'no party preference' registration together cannot withstand a true partisan battle.

Therefore, the Trump administration steered the shooting incident towards two policy issues that have long troubled Trump: constructing a White House ballroom and allocating a budget for the Department of Homeland Security, which remains partially shut down.

Trump's 'Calculations': The Chess Game After the Gunfire

The day after the shooting, Trump posted on Truth Social: "This would never have happened in the military-grade, top-secret ballroom being built at the White House. It's not being built fast enough."

Trump believes the attack occurred at the Hilton Hotel, rather than the White House itself, partly because the White House Correspondents' Dinner has always been held at the Hilton. Notably, the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan in 1981 also occurred at a Washington Hilton Hotel.

Scene of the 1981 Reagan assassination attempt

In July 2025, Trump announced the construction of a 90,000-square-foot "White House State Ballroom" on the original site of the East Wing, capable of holding 999 people. The cost has escalated from an initial $200 million to $400 million.

White House Ballroom Construction

This $400 million project had previously been mired in difficulties due to "excessive cost" and "damage to historical artifacts." But overnight, the situation reversed. Brett Shumate, Assistant Attorney General for the Civil Division, directly wrote to the National Trust for Historic Preservation, demanding they withdraw their lawsuit blocking construction by Monday morning. His tone was blunt: "Your lawsuit places the lives of the President, his family, and his staff at serious risk... I hope yesterday's close call will finally make you realize the absurdity of this lawsuit."

Senator Lindsey Graham announced he would introduce legislation to authorize and fund the ballroom, stating: "Some thought this was a vanity project. I no longer think that. I just spoke to the President; his first words were: 'We must build that ballroom, not for me, but for future presidents.'" Senators Tim Sheehy and Representative Lauren Boebert also announced similar legislative efforts. Even Democratic Senator Fetterman wrote on X that people should "put aside TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) and get the White House ballroom built."

This is precisely what Trump anticipated. Trump's other "calculation" targets the Department of Homeland Security's budget.

Many are unaware that the U.S. government remains partially shut down. The Department of Homeland Security partially shut down on February 14th due to a funding lapse and has now been closed for 73 days.

According to the Polymarket market asking "How long will the DHS shutdown last?", there is a high probability it will continue for at least another 20 days.

The backstory of the DHS shutdown is: In January, immigration enforcement agents fatally shot two U.S. citizens during an operation. In response, Democrats refused to approve normal funding for DHS, using it as leverage to demand restrictions on immigration enforcement powers. This has left the department closed for nearly two months, with agents working without pay.

Trump specifically highlighted this detail in his post-shooting press conference: "These are tough, reliable people who deserve their pay. You know, they aren't getting paid right now. It's the Democrats delaying their salaries." Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters was more direct, characterizing the shooting as "the inevitable result of the radical left normalizing political violence," stating that Democrats "repeatedly obstructed funding for the Department of Homeland Security, blocking funds for the very law enforcement agencies entrusted with protecting Americans."

Trump is no longer the 2024 challenger but an incumbent wielding executive resources, so his strategy this time is entirely different from 2024.

Attacker Allen is scheduled to appear in federal court on Monday, facing two charges: using a firearm to commit a violent crime and assaulting a federal officer. Prosecutor Pirro stated that further charges may be added as the investigation deepens. As expected, Acting Attorney General Blanche said Allen is being very uncooperative with the investigation. It appears the political aftershocks of this case will continue.