The Dark Forest of Quantum Computers: Bitcoin Users, L1 Projects, and On-Chain Survival Guide

The task of the blockchain wallfacers is clear: to develop new weapons, establish new defense systems, and formulate survival strategies before the enemy arrives.

Introduction: Bitcoin's "Dark Forest" Crisis

In the world of blockchain, each node is like a star in the universe, independent yet interconnected, collectively building a decentralized financial world. Bitcoin, as the pioneer of this network, relies on strong cryptographic algorithms to protect its security. However, this security system is not invincible. A technology from the future—quantum computers—is quietly emerging. Like the Trisolaran fleet in "The Three-Body Problem," it possesses the ability to launch a "dimensional reduction attack," and once mature, it will launch a fatal attack on Bitcoin and the entire blockchain ecosystem.

So, what should we do if quantum computers crack Bitcoin in the near future? Is there any possibility of fighting back in this on-chain survival battle in the "dark forest"?

Chapter 1: Bitcoin Will Suffer a "Dimensional Reduction Attack" from Quantum Processes

The most terrifying weapon in the novel *The Three-Body Problem* isn't a laser cannon, but rather "dimensional reduction"—a higher-dimensional civilization doesn't fight you in the same dimension, but directly compresses three-dimensional space into two dimensions. All your defenses, all your fortresses, instantly collapse into a sheet of paper. And the mathematical "impossibility" that Bitcoin relies on becomes "easy" in the face of quantum computing.

IBM's Quantum System-1, located in Eningen, Germany. Source: Wikipedia

1.1 Bitcoin's "Technical Barriers" vs. Quantum Computers' "Waterdrop" Weapons

Bitcoin: The Crypto Standard of the 1980s

Bitcoin's core security relies on the ECDSA algorithm, a cryptographic standard first proposed in 1985. In this system, each user has a pair of keys: the private key is the user's "thought," known only to themselves; the public key is a publicly available "proof of identity" used to verify the legitimacy of transactions.

Generating a public key from a private key is easy using a one-way mathematical function, but deriving a private key from a public key is almost impossible with traditional computing power.

Because the Bitcoin network uses a 256-bit key, it means that even the most powerful conventional computer would need to brute-force it for a time longer than the age of the universe. It is this mathematical "impossibility" that protects the security of the Bitcoin network.

Quantum computers: A new "waterdrop" technology for cracking encryption

A quantum computer is a new type of computing device that is completely different from a traditional computer. It uses the properties of superposition and entanglement in quantum physics to perform calculations, and its theoretical computing power for certain problems can increase exponentially.

Its emergence is a game-changer—theoretically, using Shor's algorithm, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can directly derive the private key from the public key within a reasonable timeframe. This is similar to the Trisolarans' "droplet" probe, capable of easily penetrating humanity's strongest defenses. Its attack methods have the following characteristics:

1. Stealth : Once an attacker obtains the private key, they can legitimately sign forged transactions, which the entire network will perceive as normal operations by the asset owner. Like the surveillance by the Sophon in "The Three-Body Problem," it's completely silent and undetectable.
2. Selectivity : The most vulnerable targets are wallets whose public keys have been exposed, especially addresses used in early Bitcoin transactions. Kapil Dhiman, CEO of Quranium, warned: "Satoshi's coins will become vulnerable targets. If these coins are transferred, people's confidence in Bitcoin will completely collapse before the system crashes. "
3. "Steal first, decrypt later : Attackers can copy publicly available data on the blockchain now and decrypt it after quantum computing technology matures. Even if the existing network is upgraded to switch to a more secure algorithm, old addresses, long-dormant wallets, and some smart contract patterns may become vulnerable."

1.2 Trust Crisis and Timeline: Satoshi Nakamoto's More Than 1 Million Bitcoins

The UK's National Cyber Security Centre recommends that organizations identify a quantum-secure cryptographic upgrade path by 2028 and complete the migration around 2035. For blockchain systems, which are designed to last for decades, preparations must begin now.

Some early estimates suggest that quantum computers may not become truly functional until 2030. This means that time is running out for the blockchain industry.

In this scenario of a quantum computer attack, the blockchain itself will still function normally—blocks will continue to be mined, and the ledger will remain intact, but the ownership of assets will have quietly changed. This situation is more terrifying than a technical glitch because it destroys people's trust in the entire system.

Once Satoshi Nakamoto's more than one million Bitcoins begin to move, the market will panic. Even if the blockchain remains technically secure, prices could plummet, triggering a chain reaction that impacts traditional financial markets that have already adopted cryptocurrencies extensively.

"If Bitcoin fails to solve the quantum mechanics problem within the next year, gold will always outperform Bitcoin." This was stated in an article posted on X last month by the founder of Carpriole, a quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund.

Part Two: Layer 1's "Wallfacer" Project

There's a brilliant premise in *The Three-Body Problem*: when humanity discovers that an alien civilization is monitoring everything on Earth through "sophons," all defense plans will be detected in advance. What to do? The United Nations proposes the "Wallfacer Project"—selecting several "Wallfacers" and granting them the power to mobilize global resources to prepare for an impending invasion.

Facing the future disruptive impact of quantum computing, the blockchain world also needs "wallfacers." The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has played this role.

From 2022 to 2024, NIST selected and launched the first batch of post-quantum cryptographic algorithms for standardization. These new algorithms are like the interstellar weapons developed in "The Three-Body Problem". Although they come at the cost of larger signature size and increased complexity of use, they do provide a realistic and feasible solution for blockchain to resist quantum attacks.

Faced with the same threat, different L1 blockchains have chosen different survival strategies.

2.1 Strategy 1: Multi-path exploration (Wallfacer experiment)

In *The Three-Body Problem*, the Wallfacers can experiment in multiple directions simultaneously without needing to explain themselves to anyone, because no one knows which path will succeed. Some mainstream blockchain projects have adopted a similar strategy: trying multiple technical solutions simultaneously and finding the optimal solution through practice.

Ethereum: A Comprehensive Technical Exploration

The Ethereum research team is developing a list of post-quantum migration tasks, including new transaction types, rollup experiments, and zero-knowledge-based wrappers. Instead of betting on a single solution, they are simultaneously advancing in multiple directions to see which path is most feasible and efficient.

Source: github.io

Solana: An optional safe haven

Solana has introduced an optional quantum-resistant vault, specifically the "Solana Winternitz Vault" solution, which achieves this by implementing a sophisticated hash-based signature system that generates a new key for each transaction.

Source: @deanmlittle

Sui: A gradual upgrade path

Sui's research team has published a dedicated quantum-safe upgrade path , proposing with academic partners an upgrade route that avoids destructive hard forks. This is a gradual strategy—not a one-off revolution, but a step-by-step transition to quantum security, minimizing the impact on existing users.

Source: @kostascrypto

The core of this strategy is "choice": instead of forcing everyone to upgrade, it provides multiple options, allowing the market and users to decide for themselves.

2.2 Strategy Two: Transforming the Old World (Bunker Project)

The "Shelter Project" in *The Three-Body Problem* is not about demolition and reconstruction, but about building a refuge behind a giant planet—the old world continues to function while a new defense system is gradually established. Some blockchain projects have adopted a similar strategy: adding a quantum security layer to the existing system, allowing the old and new systems to coexist, and enabling users to migrate gradually.

Algorand: Add defenses to critical nodes

Algorand is a prime example of post-quantum technology being applied in a production environment. In 2022, it introduced "State Proofs," using FALCON, a lattice-based signature scheme standardized by NIST. These proofs verify the state of the Algorand ledger every few hundred blocks, providing quantum-safe verification services for other chains. Recently, Algorand also demonstrated a complete post-quantum transaction on its mainnet, showcasing Falcon-based logical signatures.

Source: Algorand

Cardano: A Long-Term Plan with Two Tracks Running in Parallel

While Cardano currently still uses Ed25519 signatures, its team sees quantum readiness as a long-term differentiating advantage. Founder Charles Hoskinson outlined a plan that combines an independent proof-of-concept chain, Mithril certificates, and NIST-compliant post-quantum signatures.

Source: @IOHK_Charles

2.3 Strategy Three: Establishing a New World (Star Ring City)

In the final stages of *The Three-Body Problem*, humanity no longer attempts to defend Earth, but instead builds a completely new civilization in space—free from historical baggage and compromises, designed from the very first brick for the new environment. Some new blockchain projects have chosen this path: building fully quantum-resistant systems from scratch.

Naoris Protocol : Mentioned in a proposal submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, focusing on post-quantum infrastructure.

Quranium : Uses the NIST-approved stateless hash-based digital signature algorithm (SPHINCS+), and is designed for the quantum age from the protocol level.

Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) : Launched in 2018, it is built on hash-based XMSS signatures and is one of the earliest quantum-resistant blockchains.

These projects don't need to consider backward compatibility, migrate existing users, or make a difficult balance between performance and security. They establish colonies directly in the "new universe," awaiting the arrival of the quantum age.

Part Three: The Dark Forest Theory – Everyone Must Make Choices

3.1 Coping Strategies for Individual Users

Avoid prolonged inactivity : Regularly check and update your wallet to avoid becoming a "preferred" target for quantum attacks.

Preparing for Key Upgrades : In the coming years, new account types, hybrid signature options, and wallet tips are expected to encourage users to upgrade the keys for high-value assets.

Focus on cryptographic agility : Choose ecosystems that can add and rotate cryptographic primitives without making destructive hard forks.

3.2 Due Diligence on Investors

Roadmap Transparency : Does the project have a clearly documented post-quantum roadmap?

Actual implementation : Is there a prototype or actual functionality, or is it just marketing hype?

Timeline : Has the project already begun preparing for the quantum threat of the 2030s?

Conclusion: Giving Time On-Chain Evolution

In *The Three-Body Problem*, the "Swordholder" can decide the fate of humanity single-handedly, but there is no such figure in the blockchain world. Each project is exploring its own path; whose solution will work? Nobody knows. But this is precisely the resilience of decentralization—no single point of failure, and no single answer.

The threat of quantum computing is not the end, but the beginning. Blockchain may not be able to preserve all of the past, but as long as the core principles remain—decentralization, censorship resistance, and trustlessness—civilization will continue.

Give civilization to the ages, and give time an on-chain evolution —only a prepared civilization can enter the next dimension.

"Forward! Forward!"

Note: The core facts in this article are derived from public reports by media outlets such as Cointelegraph and public knowledge bases such as Wikipedia. The author independently completed the information integration, analytical framework construction, and visualization presentation. The entire article originally utilizes metaphors from "The Three-Body Problem" to reclassify and deeply interpret post-quantum strategies in the blockchain space.