Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

By Wenser ( @wenser 2010 )

With the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data last night, the market once again welcomed expectations of a rate cut, but after a short-term rally, the broader market fell sharply again and is currently stabilizing above $110,000.

According to Coingecko data , the total market value of the cryptocurrency market fell to US$3.91 trillion, a drop of nearly US$0.3 trillion from the previous market value of over US$4.2 trillion; OKX market data showed that the BTC price was temporarily reported at around US$111,000, a 24-hour drop of 0.3%; the ETH price was temporarily reported at around US$4,318, a 24-hour increase of 0.1%.

Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze the future market trends in this article based on market views.

Analysis of the main reasons for the market volatility and decline: BTC buying is weak, and ETH reserve strategy remains to be verified.

According to SosoValue data, on September 4,the U.S. BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of US$227 million in a single day. Following the net inflow of over US$300 million in a single day on September 2 and 3, it turned to net outflow again, indicating that the market has turned bearish on the price trend of BTC again. At present, the total net inflow of BTC spot ETF is US$54.55 billion; the recent performanceof the U.S. ETH spot ETF data is even bleaker, with continuous net outflow from August 29 to September 4. The net outflow on September 4 alone reached US$167 million. At present, the total net inflow is US$13.04 billion.

Overall, the market has entered the "proof-of-concept" stage, with BTC buying somewhat scattered and weak. Whether listed companies' "ETH reserve strategies" can achieve the effect of "both cryptocurrency and stock prices rising together" is also entering a verification period. Coupled with the tightening of US regulatory policies on "listed companies establishing crypto reserves," the market is entering another dormant period.

BTC institutional buying has peaked: listed companies' holdings exceed 1 million BTC

On September 4, BitcoinTreasuries published a statement saying that the total amount of Bitcoin held by listed companies worldwide has exceeded 1 million, reaching 1,000,442. Among them, Strategy ranked first, holding 636,505 Bitcoins.

Even a strong company like Strategy still lacks buying power compared to the massive "BTC listed company reserve" and the even larger sell orders from the gradually awakening BTC OGs and ancient whales . It's worth noting that the latest news indicates that despite meeting the relevant requirements, Strategy failed to enter the S&P 500 index.

Many listed companies, however, view their BTC reserve strategy merely as a means to boost stock prices, lacking both the ability and the motivation to purchase more BTC. The resulting increase in buying is a drop in the bucket compared to selling. This suggests that institutional buying of BTC by listed companies has peaked and requires further positive stimulus to accelerate further.

ETH reserves enter the verification period, and related concept stocks are weak

According to data from the StrategyEthreserve website , the current ETH reserve listed companies hold 4.71 million ETH, worth US$20.34 billion, accounting for 3.89% of the total ETH supply. The number of participating companies has increased to 71, but in terms of the stock price performance of major listed companies, whether the ETH reserve strategy can continue to be effective remains to be verified.

Looking at the stock price performance of the top three listed companies with the largest ETH reserves (as of September 6):

Bitmine (BMNR) stock price is currently at $42.04, down nearly 75% from its historical high of $161 in July;

Sharplink (SBET) stock price is currently at $14.94, down nearly 90% from its all-time high of $124.12 in May;

The share price of ETH Machine (ETHM) is currently at $10.75, down nearly 30% from its historical high of $15.24 in July.

Although BitMine Chairman Tom Lee previously stated that Bitmine's cryptocurrency reserve funds reached nearly $9 billion in just a few months, compared to MicroStrategy's more than 1,200 days to achieve this milestone, in the long run, the ETH reserve strategy still needs time to be verified.

Tightening regulations: Nasdaq will increase scrutiny of cryptocurrency investments by listed companies

Nasdaq is increasing its scrutiny of cryptocurrency investment activities by its listed companies. Previously, some companies raised funds to purchase cryptocurrency assets to boost their stock performance. However, Nasdaq has expressed concerns about this behavior, believing it could potentially mislead investors and has decided to strengthen regulatory measures.

Nasdaq has not yet publicly disclosed specific regulatory actions, but it is expected to require companies to disclose detailed information about their cryptocurrency investments, including investment size, strategy, and potential risks. Furthermore, Nasdaq may conduct special scrutiny of companies that frequently trade cryptocurrency assets to ensure their activities comply with market regulations. This move reflects the growing regulatory focus on the cryptocurrency market.

Based on the above information, the downward and volatile trend in the crypto market may continue. Combined with the current economic policies of the United States, perhaps an interest rate cut will bring about a new round of positive stimulus.

The non-farm payroll data was in line with expectations, but the market reaction was flat.

According to Jinshi Data, the US unemployment rate was 4.3% in August, compared to 4.2% in the previous month and 4.30% expected. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in August were 75,000, compared to 79,000 in the previous month and 7.5 expected. Overall, this was in line with expectations.

It's worth noting that the latest revised data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that June's nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 27,000 from 14,000 to -13,000, while July's payrolls were revised up by 6,000 from 73,000 to 79,000. Overall, the combined employment figures for June and July were revised down by 21,000 from the previous figures. This suggests a certain optimism in the previous employment data. Just three days prior, on September 3rd , following the release of the U.S. employment data, the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve rose to 98%. This suggests that a rate cut is imminent.

Commerzbank: US non-farm payroll data may determine the motivation for rate cuts

Last night, before the release of the non-farm payroll data, Thu Lan Nguyen, head of foreign exchange and commodity research at Commerzbank, pointed out that regarding the non-farm payroll data, attention should be paid to the following: weak job growth will not only have an impact on US monetary policy, but will also reveal whether the "dismissal of the head of the department responsible for statistics" has affected data collection.

Commerzbank's US experts previously warned of the annual benchmark revisions due on September 9th— a revision that led to a significant downward revision to employment figures last year. They also found that actual employment dynamics could be weaker than previously reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. From this perspective, the US dollar faces significant headwinds, as (weak) data could inject new momentum into speculation about a rate cut. Conversely, given the current political pressures, any unexpectedly strong report should be viewed with caution.

Antje Praefcke, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, previously noted that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium emphasized downside risks to the economy and employment, significantly increasing the weight of the non-farm payroll data. This also means that if labor market data falls short of expectations, it could further significantly increase expectations of a Fed rate cut, potentially reigniting market expectations for one or more 50 basis point rate cuts.

The non-farm payroll data that is in line with expectations has increased the possibility of an interest rate cut to a certain extent, but the positive impact is mediocre, so the market has reacted indifferently to it, which is reflected in the price, which is the current slight fluctuation in the overall market performance.

Market outlook overview: BTC is on the defensive, while ETH still has the potential to rise

Currently, the mainstream market view is somewhat pessimistic about the upward trend of BTC prices; however, it is believed that ETH prices may fall first and then rise, and may even break new highs around November. The following are the main market views:

PlanC: Bitcoin no longer relies on the halving cycle, and the Q4 price peak is pure nonsense

Crypto analyst PlanC wrote that anyone who believes that Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of this year does not understand statistics or probability, because from a statistical and probabilistic perspective, this is equivalent to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, and then betting all your money that the fourth flip will be tails, but in fact relying on the first three halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data.

Today, with the rise of Bitcoin Funding and massive inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the halving cycle is no longer relevant for Bitcoin, and there is no fundamental reason other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy to explain Bitcoin’s peak in Q4 2025.

Greeks.live: The market is in a clear decline, and BTC's short-term IV has risen to 40%.

Greek.live macro researcher Adam wrote that the market is in a clear downturn, with BTC's short- and medium-term IV rising to 40% and ETH's short-term IV to 70%. This increase in short-term IV indicates rising market expectations for volatility this week. The decline in US crypto stocks, particularly those in the MicroStrategy series, is a contributing factor. September has historically been a weak month for capital, and the final quarter is expected to see more abundant capital. Today's put options block trading volume also rose rapidly, totaling $1.17 billion, accounting for 30% of the day's total trading volume, indicating a prevailing defensive mentality.

CryptoQuant: BTC monthly key support is $107,600, and the market is in a repair phase

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that BTC is currently trading at $110,700 on a monthly basis, slightly above the short-term holder realized price (STH Realized Price) of $107,600, considered a key monthly bull market support level. The current price is significantly higher than the overall realized price of $52,800 and the long-term holder realized price (LTH RP) of $35,600, confirming a structural uptrend.

Furthermore, the NUPL indicator, at 0.53, suggests broad profit-taking in the market, though not yet reaching the extreme levels of previous cycles. Higher timeframes remain bullish, but the market remains in a correction phase and sensitive to profit-taking . A key reference point is the STH realized price of $107,000; holding this area would support the continuation of the uptrend. Currently, the NUPL has shown no signs of a final frenzy, suggesting further upside potential after consolidation.

Analyst: ETH may pull back to the $3,350 support level in September and rebound in October to hit a new high

Crypto analyst Johnny Woo said : "ETH may be bearish at first, but if the trend develops as expected, this may be the biggest bear trap I have ever seen." He added that the chart shows that ETH may form a "head and shoulders top" pattern in September and then be broken during the "October rise". In this scenario, Ethereum may fall back to the support level of about $3,350 in September, then rebound in October and hit a new historical high in November.

A similar situation occurred in September 2021, when ETH fell 30% from $3,950 to $2,750, before rebounding to an all-time high in November.

Data View: Whales increasing their holdings of ETH may drive Ethereum's further rise

As whales increase their hoarding efforts during the recent crypto market correction, Ethereum is gradually turning bullish. Analysts say that with the continued inflow of institutional funds, ETH may rise further in the future.

According to data from the on-chain analysis platform Santiment, whale addresses holding 1,000 to 100,000 ETH have increased their holdings by 14% in the past five months.

According to Artemis data, the concentrated increase in holdings by whales is consistent with the net inflow of $9.9 billion on the Ethereum chain in the past three months, and there was also an inflow of $6.7 billion in stablecoins.

Traders vote with their feet: Long positions suffer heavy losses, open positions cautiously, and set stop-loss orders firmly

Whales lost $10.67 million on ETH after chasing the non-farm payroll data

According to crypto analyst Ember , a whale who had previously sold HYPE and switched to long ETH increased his long position at $4,446 after the 8:30 non-farm payroll data release. However, ETH subsequently fell rapidly, and he closed his entire 52,800 ETH position at approximately $4,265, resulting in a loss of approximately $10.67 million. Since July 25th, this whale has continued to long ETH and frequently stopped out, resulting in cumulative losses of $35.84 million.

Trader Eugene opened a long position in SOL, saying that BTC stabilized at $110,000 support

Trader Eugene posted that he has attempted to open a long position in Sol (SOL). He believes that with BTC reclaiming the $110,000 mark, Sol is the strongest asset among major crypto assets. Due to ETH's weakening momentum and the compression of its mNAV indicator (BMNR below 1.1 and SBET below 1), he expects the market to shift to more resilient emerging tokens. Eugene also noted that he would immediately stop losses if BTC falls below $110,000.