Last week (July 2-July 8), stimulated by macroeconomics and geopolitics, BTC broke through $110,000, up more than 5%, and then fluctuated at a high level, and ETH rose simultaneously. Affected by the release of non-agricultural data, pressure on the US dollar, and the expectation of increased interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, BTC has attracted the attention of funds. On July 3, the price broke through $109,000, reaching a high of $110,529.18, and then fluctuated in the range of $108,500-$109,500, with the largest increase of 5.16% during the week. On July 6, stimulated by Musks establishment of the American Party and public support for BTC, the price of BTC rose rapidly, once approaching $110,000, with a single-day increase of more than 5%. However, the upward pressure is strong, and BTC fell back to around $108,000 in the short term. The current price is stable at around $108,387. Last week, the price trend of ETH was basically the same as that of BTC, with the largest increase of 11.06% during the week. The current price is stable at around $2,605 (Binance spot, July 9, 13:29).
After the National Day holiday, US stocks fell sharply from their highs. As of the close of July 8, the Dow Jones Index fell more than 600 points during the session and closed down more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Index fell nearly 1%. US President Trump announced that he would impose tariffs of up to 40% on Japan, South Korea and other countries, and trade frictions re-emerged, dragging down the performance of the stock and bond markets.
Market Interpretation
Musks American Party sparked heated discussions on Web3 politics, and BTC market sentiment heated up
Musk announced the establishment of the American Party on X on July 6, publicly opposed the Big, Beautiful Act, emphasized the need to give you back your freedom, and clearly supported BTC, saying that fiat currency has no hope. As soon as the news came out, Teslas US stock fell by more than 7% in the night trading. The incident quickly resonated with the crypto community and was seen as an innovative experiment in Web3 politics and decentralized mobilization.
BTC was boosted by Musks statement, and its price once soared to nearly $110,000. The US party uses blockchain and digital assets as the basis of political consensus, following the macro trend of pressure on the credit of the US dollar and loosening of global regulation. Market analysis points out that BTC, as an asset that hedges against inflation and institutional risks, is gaining a new round of political endorsement.
In the short term, BTC is consolidating at a high level, and the market is paying attention to the subsequent policy direction and high selling pressure. In the long term, Web3 technology and global financial governance are accelerating integration, and BTC consensus is expected to continue to strengthen, driving a new pattern of digital asset ecology.
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, expectations for rate cuts cooled, BTC fluctuated at high levels
The non-farm data released last week showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 147,000 in June, higher than the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This shows that the job market is still resilient and the risk of a US recession has eased in the short term. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July has risen to 76.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 21.8%.
BTC continued to strengthen before the release of non-farm data, breaking through $109,000 and entering a high-level fluctuation range. Affected by the unexpected employment data, BTC once pulled back during the day, and the 24-hour price fluctuated around $108,000-$110,000. Overall, the strong employment data suppressed the Feds aggressive interest rate cut space in the short term, the US dollar and US Treasury yields stabilized, the volatility of risky assets converged, and market sentiment tended to be rational. In the future, we need to pay attention to macro data such as the US CPI and the Feds statement to determine whether the crypto market can gain new upward momentum.
RWA market users and assets both grow, and ecological expansion enters a new cycle
As of July 8, the total market value of the RWA chain reached $24.52 billion, which was flat month-on-month, but the number of asset holders and issuers increased by 25% and 27% respectively, and the ecological expansion trend was prominent. In terms of capital allocation, private credit fell slightly to $14.1 billion, and U.S. debt increased to $7.5 billion, indicating that funds prefer stable assets. The scale of stablecoins and users increased slightly at the same time, providing support for market liquidity. Overall, the market value is sideways but the innovation on the chain is active. It is expected that the RWA market will usher in a new round of growth cycle of user and asset resonance.
It is worth mentioning that Matrixport’s Chief Operating Officer Cynthia recently revealed at an offline event that Matrixport has established a XAUm strategic reserve to enhance its ability to cope with cyclical fluctuations, and will continue to promote the on-chainization of value cornerstone assets such as gold, creating a new channel for investors to reach high-quality RWA. This move not only enhances financial robustness, but also reflects that leading institutions are actively expanding the application depth of commodities such as gold in the on-chain ecology, bringing more possibilities for on-chain RWA asset allocation.
Market Hotspots
US policy combination stimulates US stocks to record highs, while tariff escalation brings uncertainty
In early July, the US President signed the Big and Beautiful Act, which boosted the economy with large-scale tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, and the SP 500 index hit a new high. At the same time, Trump announced that tariffs on 12 countries would be raised to 10%-70%, which is expected to be implemented in August, and global trade and inflation risks will increase. In the short term, US stocks benefit from favorable policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, and the overall trend is optimistic, but valuations are high, and we need to be vigilant about potential fluctuations caused by tariffs and earnings changes.
BTC whale activated, 80,000 BTC transfer attracted market attention
Last week, eight early wallets transferred a total of 80,000 BTC, worth about $8.69 billion, setting a record for the largest single transfer in the Satoshi era. The transferred BTC were all mined before 2011, with an original cost as low as $0.78-$3.37, and a book profit of more than 100,000 times. At present, these BTC have not yet flowed into the exchange, but the holding scale accounts for as high as 13.4% of MicroStrategy, which exceeds the total of many listed institutions. The huge transfer is regarded by the market as a potential selling signal, which may aggravate BTC volatility and wait-and-see sentiment in the short term, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the subsequent fund flow.
Institutions buy ETH in large quantities, SharpLink drives the ETH treasury boom
SharpLink Gaming, a Nasdaq-listed company, spent $463 million to purchase 176,000 ETH, more than 95% of which have been pledged, becoming the largest listed company holding ETH. The news pushed the stock price up 400%, and companies such as Bitmine Immersion followed suit, accelerating the trend of institutional treasuryization.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
