Key Takeaways
– After the Bitcoin halving, the supply has tightened (74% of on-chain assets are locked for a long time, and 75% have not moved for ≥ 6 months), and the floating amount has decreased significantly, which is further bullish.
– Trading activity remains strong (30-day average daily active addresses of approximately 735,000, and average daily transactions of 390,000-400,000), and NVT golden cross 1.51, indicating that BTC/USD valuation is supported by real usage.
– Coin holder indicators (realized market capitalization of more than $900 billion, SOPR ≈ 1.03, MVRV ≈ 2.3×) show strong confidence, moderate profit taking, and manageable selling pressure.
- Continuous net outflows from exchanges, high computing power, and multiple on-chain valuation models (S2F ~$248-369K, NVT) all indicate that Bitcoin may rise to the range of $150,000-200,000 in the 2025 bull market, but we still need to pay attention to macro and regulatory risks.
The halving in April 2024 will cut Bitcoin issuance to about 900 BTC per day, bringing a significant supply shock. Today, 74% of the Bitcoin in circulation has been locked up for more than two years, and about 75% has remained dormant for the past half a decade. Record hoarding has further tightened the tradable supply, creating a strong bull market atmosphere for the BTC/USD contract and BTC/USDT spot markets.
This article will deeply analyze all major on-chain indicators - from active addresses, NVT, SOPR, MVRV, to computing power, exchange flow, and valuation models (Stock-to-Flow, NVT signal) - to let you understand why most people expect Bitcoin to return to or even exceed its historical highs by the end of 2025, and how to position it through Bitcoin spot , Bitcoin contracts or Bitcoin staking .
2025 BTC on-chain data overview
BTC Supply Dynamics
Bitcoin’s supply landscape has changed dramatically after the halving:
Circulating vs. Illiquid Supply
– Daily new issuance is halved to approximately 900 BTC, and the rate of new coin issuance slows down.
– Only 14.6 million BTC out of 19.8 million in circulation have been transferred in the past two years — 74% are locked for a long time and rarely move.
HODL Wave and Sleeping Coins
– About 75% of all Bitcoin has had zero transactions in the past 6 months.
– 25% of the coins in circulation are 3-4 years old, showing a deep belief in holding coins.
Implications: Supply squeeze
The scarcity effect brought by the halving, coupled with the historically high hoarding behavior, has greatly compressed the floating amount of BTC available for sale. It can be seen that even a small-scale purchase of Bitcoin spot or inflow of funds into Bitcoin contracts will have a huge positive push on the price of Bitcoin .
Image Credit: Total Supply and New Supply (CryptoQuant)
BTC transaction activity
On-chain usage remains robust, not just a temporary hype:
Number of active addresses
– An average of approximately 735,000 unique addresses are active daily (30-day average), which is around the 60th percentile in history.
Trading Volume
– The number of on-chain transactions per day is approximately 390,000 to 400,000, with an average daily transfer value of approximately US$45 billion.
– There was a surge in agreements in 2024, after which volume returned to being driven by core financial demand.
Network Demand Tier (NVT)
– The NVT value golden cross is about 1.51 (rather than the “bubble” warning line of 2.2), indicating that the price of Bitcoin is supported by real value flows rather than pure speculation.
– Robust on-chain activity not only consolidates Bitcoin’s position as a trading asset, but also strengthens its “digital gold” attributes.
Image Credit: Total Bitcoin Transactions (CryptoQuant)
Bitcoin holder behavior
Investor confidence remains strong:
Realized market value
– Over $900 billion (all-time high), meaning a huge holding cost basis has been locked in.
Profitability Indicators (SOPR P/L Ratio)
– SOPR ≈ 1.03 : Tokens moved were just slightly profitable.
– Realized PL for short-term holders is close to cycle highs but still not reaching extreme profit taking areas.
MVRV Analysis
– Market value/realized market value ratio is about 2.3×; long-term holders have an average profit of +230%, and short-term holders have +13%.
Selling Pressure Risk
– Although selling pressure risks have increased, they are still below the peaks in 2017 and 2021, indicating that the pace of profit-taking is mild and has not triggered panic selling.
Overall, while coin holders selectively cashed out part of their profits, they still retained their core positions, effectively alleviating the downward pressure on Bitcoin prices .
Image Credit: Bitcoin MVRV Ratio (CryptoQuant)
Bitcoin Miner Dynamics
Mining economics directly affects BTC price trends:
Hashrate and Difficulty
– The global computing power has exceeded 1 ZH/s, and the difficulty of mining has reached new highs - this not only reflects the security of the network, but also compresses the profit space of miners.
Miners coin tossing and income
– On April 7, 2025, miners sold about 15,000 BTC (about 1.1 billion US dollars) and cashed out.
– Average daily miner revenue was approximately $39 million, down approximately 30% year-on-year.
The increase in difficulty and the decrease in block rewards forced some small mining farms to withdraw, bringing short-term selling pressure; but at the same time, it also optimized the distribution of network computing power, providing more solid support for the long-term BTC price.
Image Credit: Bitcoin Miner Outflow (CryptoQuant)
Exchange Fund Flow
Exchange flow metrics reveal market liquidity:
Net flow trend
– The depth of net outflow on the 7-day moving average is the highest in recent years and the most intense since the beginning of 2023.
Coins held by exchanges
– From April to May 2025, Binance’s holdings fell from approximately 595,000 BTC to 544,500 BTC, with a net withdrawal of more than 51,000 BTC.
Liquidity impact
– Withdrawals significantly exceed deposits → Market supply is tighter and short-term volatility risk increases.
Institutions and large investors have turned to cold wallets in large numbers, reducing the amount of BTC available for sale in the spot market. This means that a new wave of spot or contract buying will more easily push up the BTC/USD contract and BTC/USDT spot prices.
Image Credit: Bitcoin Exchange Reserve (CryptoQuant)
On-chain valuation model
Quantitative models provide reference for BTC pricing:
Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
– Model valuation is approximately $248k (463-day average) to $369k (10-day average).
– Limitations: The performance in recent years has been slightly lower, and the fit for the market after 2021 has declined.
Network Value to Transaction (NVT)
– The NVT value golden cross is about 1.51, confirming that the current valuation is supported by real trading volume rather than pure bubble.
Other signals
– Indicators such as Mayer Multiple (around 1.1 – 1.2), Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-score recovery, and Value Days Depleted (VDD) all point to a healthy bull market phase.
Overall, all major on-chain models agree that Bitcoin prices still have room to rise before the fundamentals become overheated.
Image Credit: Stock-to-Flow Ratio (CryptoQuant)
BTC Historical Cycles and Patterns
The bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin is about 4 years, and the halving is the driving force behind it:
Four-year cycle framework
– Post-halving bull market phase: 2013, 2017, 2021 (usually peaks 1-1.5 years after halving).
Mid-term revision 2025
– The MVRV Z-score fell to the cycle bottom of ~1.43; the Value Days Consumption (VDD) entered the “green zone”, suggesting that long-term holders are accumulating at low levels.
Next high point timing
– If history repeats itself, the third or fourth quarter of 2025 is very likely to be the peak of this cycle - but macroeconomic and regulatory developments may accelerate or delay the arrival of the top.
Past cycles suggest that the correction from around $100,000 to $75,000 in early 2025 was a healthy mid-term breather rather than the end of the cycle, setting the stage for the next upward wave.
On-chain expert and institutional predictions
Most on-chain experts and institutional strategists give a target range of $150,000 to $200,000 by 2025 based on tightening supply indicators and growing demand signals:
– Standard Chartered Bank relies on the “digital gold” theory and is optimistic about the continuous influx of spot ETFs, helping BTC/USD contracts and BTC/USDT spot markets to climb to $200,000 throughout the year.
– Goldman Sachs Bernstein also pointed out that the large-scale entry of institutions and the improvement of contract and spot liquidity will drive the deep consolidation of the Bitcoin market.
– Michael Sigel of VanEck, with his bimodal cycle model, predicts a cycle peak of around $180,000 in 2025.
– PlanB’s S 2 F model continues to serve as a benchmark, with prices expected to hit around $160,000 by the end of the year.
– On the derivatives platform, Kalshi’s market implied probability shows that there is a 43% chance that BTC will exceed $150,000.
– GLBX of CryptoQuant emphasizes that the continued accumulation of long-term coin holders is a key bullish signal that locks in liquidity and supports prices.
This range of forecasts (ranging from $150,000 to $200,000) reflects the fact that increased on-chain scarcity, growing spot and futures liquidity, and new income opportunities like BTC staking are driving the next bull run.
Competitive Landscape
As the momentum of Bitcoins surge in 2025 becomes increasingly apparent, investors are beginning to weigh the pros and cons of various assets:
– Bitcoin vs. altcoins: Ethereum, Solana and other altcoins provide smart contract applications, but the protocol risks are higher. Bitcoin remains the leading “digital gold” value storage with its huge market value, solid security and long market record.
– Bitcoin vs. Gold and Precious Metals: Gold and silver have low yields and are not easy to carry. Bitcoin’s programmable scarcity, portability, and high liquidity—both spot and contract—provide a more mobile hedging option.
– Bitcoin vs. Stocks and Bonds: Stocks and bonds are greatly affected by economic cycles and have limited room for growth. Bitcoin has low correlation with traditional assets and high growth potential. Through spot ETFs or futures contracts, it can become an attractive portfolio diversification tool.
– Crypto-yield products: Liquidity staking derivatives bring additional income, but are accompanied by smart contract risks; centralized platforms such as XT Earn provide regulated BTC or USDT fixed/floating interest.
– Futures and derivatives: Futures contracts support leverage and hedging, but have rollover costs and margin risks - for long-term holders, spot or pledged returns are usually more stable.
Summary and Outlook
The historic lock-up wave and record illiquid supply after the halving make Bitcoin an unprecedented scarce asset. Robust on-chain usage, strong holder metrics, and declining exchange reserves all indicate that the bull run will continue until the end of 2025. Although macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory changes may bring volatility, the forces of tightening supply and rising demand will drive Bitcoin prices back to or even beyond historical highs. Whether through BTC spot , BTC contracts , or BTC staking , market participants have multiple paths to capture the next round of gains.
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin
1. What drives the price of Bitcoin after the halving?
The halving mechanism reduces the supply of new coins, which amplifies the scarcity effect when demand is stable or rising. On-chain indicators (illiquid supply, HODL fluctuations) can intuitively reflect this tightening.
2. How do on-chain models such as Stock-to-Flow predict BTC prices?
Stock-to-Flow ties scarcity to value, predicting prices in the mid- to high-six figures after the halving. It provides a useful frame of reference, but its accuracy has fluctuated since 2021.
3. What is the NVT ratio? Why is it important?
NVT (Network Value to Transaction Volume Ratio) measures the relationship between market capitalization and on-chain transaction volume. A lower NVT (such as 1.51) means that the price is driven by real usage rather than pure speculation.
4. How to get income from Bitcoin assets?
Options include: liquidity staking token staking, DeFi lending, and centralized interest products such as XT Earn , which offer flexible or fixed-term income plans.
5. Should I trade spot or Bitcoin futures?
Spot trading allows you to directly own assets, which is safer and more stable; futures contracts support leverage and hedging, which is more suitable for short-term strategies. Long-term holders can give priority to spot or pledge profits.
6. When might Bitcoin hit $200,000?
The mainstream view is that the peak of the post-halving cycle is likely to occur in the third or fourth quarter of 2025, but macro and regulatory factors may also accelerate or delay the arrival of the peak.
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