Yesterday (15 APR), US retail data showed strong performance, with a monthly rate of 0.7% month-on-month growth, far exceeding expectations by 0.4%. The previous value was also revised up from 0.6% to 0.9%. The markets expectations for the Feds interest rate cut were further postponed. The probability of no interest rate cuts in June and August was 80% and 54% respectively. The US Treasury yield also gradually rose, with the two-year/ten-year yields reported at 4.946%/4.655%. US stocks were under downward pressure, with the Dow/SP/Nasdaq closing down 0.65%/1.2%/1.79% respectively.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
With the further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the repeated postponement of expectations for US interest rate cuts, digital currencies have also been fluctuating at low levels in a market filled with risk aversion. After a brief positive rebound brought about by the approval of ETFs in Hong Kong, BTC fell again and fell below the important support level of $62,000 several times.
Source: SignalPlus, BTC fell below the $62,000 support level several times
Judging from the data, this round of decline was mainly caused by the liquidation and stop-loss of futures longs, and the funding rate returned to a relatively neutral level (even reaching a negative value). On the bright side, this wave of deleveraging operations also allowed the overall BTC position (relative to early March) to enter a relatively healthy state.
Source: Coinglass, Funding rate returns to neutral, leverage market sentiment cools
On the other hand, the halving this week has a greater direct impact on the price of BTC. According to Bitfinex, a large number of BTC holders in centralized exchanges have chosen to leave recently, and the number of BTC in inactive addresses for more than one year has also dropped to a new low in the past 18 months. This reveals that long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their positions or moved their positions out of exchanges in recent times. At the same time, short-term holders (STHs) are observed to be constantly absorbing their sold positions. If the Flow of STHs can continue, the price of the currency may continue to gain upward space.
Source: Deribit (as of 16 APR 16:00 UTC+8)
In terms of options, the front-end Vol Skew fell to the lowest point in the past three months. A considerable number of Long Put positions appeared at multiple important strike prices of BTC and ETH in April. At the same time, under such a high and steep IV Surface, the selling pressure of BTC front-end call options remained strong; the only few sell put spreads in bulk were also traded at a relatively far price below 60,000. The markets bullish enthusiasm was completely suppressed by the tense risk aversion sentiment in the past two days.
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew is at an all-time low
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution
Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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