Original Author: Biteye Core Contributor Louis Wang
Original Editor: Biteye Core Contributor Crush
Original Source: @BiteyeCN
01 What is Arkham?
On July 10th, Binance announced that the on-chain data analysis platform Arkham's token $ARKM will be listed on Launchpad, pioneering the issuance and listing of tool-based products on Binance.
In fact, as early as the beginning of this year, we introduced Arkham in the article "Seven Next-Generation Web3 Data Tools", but at that time it was not well-known, unlike now appearing in the repentant Tweets of various KOLs.
Arkham currently has two business segments, one is the data analysis platform similar to Nansen and 0x scope, and the other is Intel Exchange, an on-chain intelligence trading platform.
Below, we will introduce them one by one, and finally present Biteye's valuation analysis of Arkham.
02 On-Chain Data Analysis Platform and Practical Tips
As a powerful on-chain data analysis platform, Arkham's feature is the correspondence between on-chain addresses and entities behind them. Compared with projects in the same field, Arkham's advantages are:
1. Providing extensive support for public chains, including Bitcoin and various mainstream EVM-compatible public chains.
2. Rich address labels
By using Arkham's features and advantages, it is very helpful for mining Alpha. Due to its support for multiple chains, detailed label system, and broad statistical coverage, the asset and behavior statistics of each entity are more comprehensive and accurate.
Next, we will take trading guru Andrew Kang as an example to see how to analyze the behavior of various entities and how to uncover the Alpha within them.
Using trading guru Andrew Kang as an example, simply enter Andrew Kang in the search bar to bring up his Entity tag. After opening it, there will be four major analysis sections:
Historical Asset Net Worth, P&L
Recent On-chain Interactions
For top-level on-chain traders like Andrew Kang, observing their positions is of great reference value. Currently, AK has earned over $1.7 million through on-chain transactions. His largest current position is RDNT, worth about $840,000.
Through the Portfolio Archive feature, you can view the changes in token holdings and corresponding values within a specified time period, thereby deducing the trading process. For example, AK has already started selling some RDNT gradually in the past week.
Top Counterparties section shows the recent rankings of the entity's interactions, including the number of interactions and the transaction amounts. Within a week, AK has interacted with MUX Protocol 165 times, with a total transaction amount of 3.19 million dollars.
Most of us are familiar with AK's activities starting from his orders on GMX, but from his recent interactions, it is evident that he has found a new interest in MUX.
MUX is a competitor of GMX, another on-chain derivatives exchange. A platform that top traders switch to must have unique features. Users who are interested in on-chain derivatives trading can follow AK's actions to learn more about MUX.
AK's daily interactions mainly involve various spot and derivatives trading. Odos is also an aggregator that is more suitable for professional traders.
The Top Counterparties feature can be useful for tracking professional traders and discovering hidden opportunities, as well.
This is just a summary, and specific actions can be viewed in the Transactions section. Compared to blockchain explorers, this platform aggregates all chain transactions, eliminating the need to switch between different browsers, which is very convenient.
Link to the above dashboard:
Another feature that is very helpful for trading is the token dashboard, which allows you to view the top holders of a specified token.
This feature can also be achieved through browsers like Etherscan, but it only displays wallet addresses without revealing the identity of the holders. Arkham, on the other hand, utilizes their powerful entity tagging system to directly disclose the entities holding the tokens.
Each token has a cap table showing token distribution at the time of issuance, but as time goes on, the entire token distribution also changes, and this change is often opaque. By comparing the current token holdings with the initial distribution chart through Arkham's token dashboard, you can determine which teams are long-term oriented and which teams are secretly selling, adding an extra layer of security to value investments.
In addition to the above analysis functions, Arkham also features an alert function. If you are a follower trader or highly concerned about the whale's holdings of a particular token, you can use the Alert function to set threshold amounts, observe specific objects or even specific accounts, and receive direct email notifications when anomalies occur.
03 Intelligence Exchange
Traders, investors, researchers, project teams, and others have an increasing demand for on-chain data analysis, but they lack the time and expertise for in-depth on-chain analysis;
Many researchers with on-chain data analysis capabilities also desire a platform that allows them to monetize their skills. Therefore, Arkham has launched The Arkham Intel Exchange, the first transaction platform that supports a reward economy for on-chain intelligence, connecting people who want to buy or sell any cryptocurrency wallet address intelligence.
Buyers can gather any intelligence they want by posting bounties. Bounty hunters can claim rewards by submitting the required intelligence.
At the same time, anyone with valuable information about wallets or their owners can offer this information to other users through a fixed price or auction.
This creates a fluid information market, enabling on-chain detectives to convert their work into income on a large scale - intel-to-earn.
The intelligence that can be traded on the intel exchange is not limited to physical tags. For example, a vulnerability victim can concentrate resources to obtain intelligence about exploiters; a trading company may want to purchase intelligence about its own wallet before competitors discover it.
In addition, users who submit intelligence for training Ultra (Arkham's AI anonymization engine) can also receive rewards.
In order to prevent a large amount of spam information, all bounty hunters need to pledge a small amount of funds to the smart contract when submitting intelligence. If their application is not approved, this part of the funds will be confiscated.
04 $ARKM Valuation
Arkham has raised more than $10 million through two rounds of equity financing, accounting for 20% of the total supply of ARKM tokens. The latest round of equity financing values it at approximately $150 million.
Investors include Tim Draper, Bedrock Capital, Wintermute Trading, GSR Markets, as well as co-founders of Palantir and OpenAI.
Arkham's token $ARKM was announced to be listed on Binance Launchpad on July 10th, pioneering the issuance of coins for data analysis platforms.
Total token supply is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 15%. The sale price on the Binance Launchpad is $0.05, with a distribution of 50 million tokens, accounting for 5% of the total supply.
The token allocation and token release of $ARKM are as follows:
Arkham is the first project in the data platform/chain data tools track to launch its token, making it difficult to find suitable benchmarks. The Graph may be somewhat relevant.
However, since The Arkham Intel Exchange has not yet gone live, there is no actual business data to compare with The Graph. Therefore, only an approximate estimation can be made based on the historical return rate of Binance Launchpad.
According to @CapitalismLab's statistics, taking the median value of all Launcpad projects since 2021, the first-day increase is 12.6 times, and the highest historical increase is 25.7 times. The first-day return rate of BNB is 0.015, and the highest historical return rate based on BNB is 0.031.
And since the launch of HOOK, the three tokens have all performed at an above-average level. The median first-day increase is 24.4 times, which is 1.9 times the historical median, and the maximum historical increase is 1.4 times the historical median. BNB, on a first-day basis, has a return rate of 1.5 times, and the maximum historical return rate of BNB is 1.3 times.
Based on the recent three IEO data, we can estimate the price range of $ARKM as shown in the following table. The range on the first day is between $0.77 and $1.32.
At the same time, if we compare Arkham's valuation to the financing valuation, we can see that the circulating tokens at the time of listing are 150 million. If the circulating market value is equal to the financing valuation, then the token price should be around $1. We roughly speculate that the market's expected valuation will not differ too much from the financing valuation, so we can temporarily conclude that the final price of $ARKM in the short term should not exceed $1 by much.
When the token price is $1, the total market value of the project reaches 1 billion US dollars, which is approximately 7 times higher than the valuation of the equity financing.
(Because the previous project OpenCampus on Binance Launchpad had a total market value under the financing valuation, which was 7 times higher, and the circulating market value did not differ much from the valuation, we believe that such multiples are possible.)
It should be noted that as the tokens are gradually unlocked (7% of the ecosystem will be unlocked for incentives at the time of listing), the circulating market value will increase, and there may be some downward risk to the subsequent token price. At the same time, Binance Launchpad will implement a limit price mechanism within the first five minutes of opening.
During this period, the maximum price increase limit will be set at ten times the offering price (taking $ARKM as an example, the maximum price increase limit will be set at ten times $0.05, which is $0.5). The limit price mechanism will be lifted after five minutes, and trading will proceed normally based on market conditions.
The introduction of this mechanism may also have a certain impact on the volatility of $ARKM during the opening period, limiting the significant fluctuations in the first five minutes after opening.