The Shanghai upgrade is coming soon, and OKLink will launch the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade special page, including the countdown page, Pos pledge, verifier, supply destruction, Gas and other on-chain data. On April 10th, in response to the market's concerns about the Shanghai upgrade, OKLink held a Twitter Space with the theme of "Talk about the Shanghai upgrade of Ethereum! Is there a lot of selling pressure? What opportunities will it bring?"

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1. Guests and self-introduction:

Moderator: Meeint Co-founder Tina

Chain Research Institute: data sent traders

0x Todd：Partner of Nothing Research

Rainy Days and Coins: Early Project Gold Diggers

Haibo: Director of Research, PANews

Tsai：OKLink Explorer PM

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2. What is the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade?

Lianyanshe: The Shanghai upgrade of Ethereum is a technical upgrade of Ethereum, and it is a relatively critical upgrade. Last September we went through the Ethereum merger. This upgrade actually allows Ethereum on the Beacon Chain to withdraw funds, and then for this withdrawal, it does not directly open all withdrawals, it follows the order of nodes or they will withdraw according to the node, according to the fixed Nodes are unlocked, and 55,000 Ethereum are unlocked every day.

Rainy days and coins: In addition to the EIP-4895 protocol just mentioned, there are also EIP-3540 and EIP-3670, which mainly reduce the gas costs related to Layer-2 running on Ethereum;

0x Todd: The official name of the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade is actually the Ethereum Shapella upgrade, which consists of two words: Shanghai + Capella.

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3. Will the upcoming Shanghai upgrade bring a lot of selling pressure on Ethereum?

Lianyanshe: There are still about 2 days left for the Shanghai upgrade, and 50,000 ETH will be unlocked every day, and all nodes will exit in accordance with the order of application in a fair manner. I think there will be selling pressure, but after unlocking, there will also be new nodes for pledge. When the unlocked Ethereum and the newly pledged Ethereum are balanced, the price of Ethereum will actually be relatively stable. After the upgrade of Ethereum, the most serious period of selling pressure is within one month after the upgrade. However, as the pledge rate increases, relatively speaking, the circulation decreases, which is definitely positive for Ethereum in the long run.

From the perspective of options data, the biggest pain point at the end of April was around 1700. The proportion of put options is very large, which means that all investors have put their assets into a hedge, so that the buying in the market will be relatively large. Thin, this is also the reason that may lead to the decline.

0x Todd: Everyone has different opinions on the selling pressure of the Shanghai upgrade. My point of view is that the 1-2 months after the Shanghai upgrade is the period when the core of Ethereum is under pressure. After two months, the whole situation will change. become more optimistic. The reasons are as follows:

ETH has been pledged for 2-3 years, and the pledger will receive the pledged income, which is about 1 million. These 1 million ETH will be under important pressure within 3-4 days after the upgrade in Shanghai ; There are also 57,000 ETHs that can be withdrawn every day. I speculate that it may last for 1-2 months, and a large part of it is to bring selling pressure to the market;

In the past 2 years, there have been three small climaxes in ETH pledge. The corresponding cost ranges are $400-600, the second range is $1200, and the third range is $1600-1700. The three most concentrated ranges are lower than the current cost price. In addition, in the past two years, many thunderstorm institutions are likely to withdraw their pledged ETH.

Rainy day and currency: My conclusion is that the main selling pressure comes from the next one to two months, that is, the most important thing is the first three days when the withdrawal is just started. Let me add that 46% of the currently pledged addresses are profitable, and 54% are at a loss. Judging from their cost prices, most of the selling pressure may come from 46% of the profitable address.

Haibo: I also think that there will be selling pressure in the early stage, and the selling pressure in the past few days will be more concentrated, and because the withdrawals in the past are mainly pledge rewards, the pledger can treat this part of the proceeds as profit, so Very likely to sell off. There are also some derivatives such as Lido and Coinbase, which can be withdrawn now, so this part may account for more than half, and I think this part will weaken its selling pressure. Overall, I think the selling pressure will be heavier in the first few days.

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4. How will the upgrade of Ethereum Shanghai affect the entire Ethereum ecosystem?

Lianyanshe: I think the biggest impact is that large households who did not participate in the pledge before will pledge more ETH. This is a relatively big change in my opinion. Now the pledge rate of ETH is only 15%. This part of the upgrade affects both the LSD and LSDFi sectors, which can lead to more diverse gameplay.

0x Todd: After the upgrade of Ethereum Shanghai, ETH can freely enter and exit Staking, which will increase the financing cost on the Ethereum chain and bring more confidence to the market. The interest rate of ETH pledge will slowly rise, and of course it may also affect Ethereum. The development of Fang ecology.

Yutian and Bi: I also think that after the successful upgrade of Ethereum Shanghai, the security concerns of the pledgers will be dispelled, and the pledged ETH will also generate more LSDFi gameplay. You can mainly focus on the new projects and new gameplay of the LSDFi version.

Haibo: I think it will benefit some projects that use ETH and LSD as assets, the most typical ones are mortgage lending projects.

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5. What are the investment opportunities and participation methods brought about by the upgrade of Shanghai?

Lianyanshe: On the one hand, after the upgrade in Shanghai, the price has dropped, we can build positions like an institution, and hedging multiple positions is a good entry position. The selling pressure of this upgrade in Shanghai will be greater than that of the previous upgrade, and it will be an opportunity to build a position. In addition, as the ETH pledge ratio increases, some LSDFi projects are still in the early stage of development, and there will be many opportunities. I recommend everyone to pay attention to this field.

0x Todd: The Shanghai upgrade includes many upgrades, but the core upgrade is that ETH can be withdrawn. This will allow more people to participate in staking with confidence. This is also an opportunity for everyone. Participating in ETH staking can get stable Annualized 6% -8% return.

Rainy days and coins: The Shanghai upgrade has brought the certainty of pledge, and everyone pays attention to LSD projects and LSD-related projects. The second is the lending agreement. You can pay attention to the various lending agreements for the pledge sector.

Haibo: I also think that when ETH falls, you can increase your holdings of some ETH. At the same time, you can also consider using ETH for cyclical pledges, which can achieve a 20% annualized return.

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6. In addition to the Shanghai upgrade in April, what are the narrative prospects for the encryption industry?

Lianyanshe: I think that Sui, which is expected to be on the mainnet in Q2, will have a public chain narrative; Amazon’s NFT at the end of April and the US CPI announcement on April 12 are expected to be greatly reduced at the conference. For the short-term market For the time being, I think there will be an upswing.

Also, I suggest that even if you are optimistic about this narrative, don’t rush to build a position. The more important thing is to wait for the Shanghai upgrade to unlock and see how the funds are hyped.

Rainy days and coins: I don’t think there are big narratives, but more small and medium narratives. The first one can pay attention to the projects on the zk chain, and the second is the RWA project, which can be kept concerned;

Haibo: Let me share a phenomenon. The market capitalization of BTC has reached a high point since April and May 2021, about 40%. Later, it started to fall after reaching an upper edge of this range. Then we also saw that ETH may rise even more later. You can pay more attention to ETH or other projects. This is a phenomenon I want to share.

Tsai: Let me add that it is the power of Asia. The first one is the current Hong Kong Web3 Conference. In addition, Sui, who is expected to launch the chain in Q2, let me first let you know some of our OKLink product plans in the future. At present, we have several chains in preparation, including Sui of the Move series, StarkNet of L2, and Cosmos hub of the Cosmos series. etc. In addition to new links, we are also preparing the next line halving countdown special page, such as LTC, DASH halving countdown, and welcome the next round of halving cycle with everyone.