Weekly Editor's Picks (0411-0417)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-04-18 02:51

This article is about 3928 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

In-depth quality analysis and a catch-up on the week's hot topics.

AI Summary

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Core Viewpoints: This week's information reveals the profound impact of macro geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve personnel deadlock on the market, while also providing in-depth analysis of key industry dynamics such as "pump and dump" manipulation in the crypto market, AI trading agents, the institutionalization process of prediction markets, and Hong Kong's stablecoin licensing strategy.
Key Elements:
1. Increasingly Complex Macro Situation: The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz heightens the risk of prolonged US-Iran conflict, while the deadlock in the nomination for Federal Reserve Chair (the Powell vs. Warsh debate) introduces unprecedented uncertainty for monetary policy.
2. Analysis of Crypto Market Manipulation: "Pump and dump" schemes typically feature extremely high concentration of holdings, reliance on contract trading, and violent price pumps and dumps. Their manipulation logic is difficult for retail investors to simply replicate. Identification requires focusing on data such as token concentration and the authenticity of trading volume.
3. Integration of AI and Trading: Advanced AI trading agents (such as "Lana") can achieve automated trend trading by constructing stable trading logic and decision-making pathways, demonstrating the application potential of AI in complex markets.
4. Development Bottlenecks in Prediction Markets: Prediction markets (like Kalshi) are being accessed by institutions, but the requirement for full margin is the main obstacle preventing them from entering the actual trading phase.
5. Deep Strategic Implications of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Strategy: Hong Kong's strict stablecoin licensing system has attracted traditional financial institutions like HSBC and Standard Chartered to invest. Its strategic goal may be to leverage the popularity of stablecoins to promote the e-HKD and seize the initiative in the next-generation financial system.
6. Industry Trends and Data: The assets under management (AUM) of top crypto VCs have shrunk significantly, indicating a tightening financing environment. Kraken's confidential IPO filing, with an estimated valuation of around $13.3 billion, shows traditional capital markets' interest in crypto exchanges.

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column rescues these judgment-worthy pieces from the sea of information, filtering out the noise for you, leaving insights, and bringing inspiration.

Macro Landscape

The Most Dangerous Move: Why Is War Harder to End After Blocking the Strait of Hormuz?

On April 12, after the 21-hour US-Iran talks broke down, Trump announced that the US Navy would block all vessels entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. The world's most critical energy chokepoint underwent a transfer of power.

Tactically, this is a "smart" operation: without needing to occupy or destroy, the US directly seized Iran's most effective tool over the past six weeks—control over Hormuz. However, the conflict is now more likely to escalate.

When the "gatekeeper" weaponizes the shipping lane, the risk-pricing logic for markets and nations also changes. Therefore, the blockade might alter short-term gains but struggles to address the fundamental constraints of the conflict. A more likely outcome is a prolonged war of attrition and accumulating tail risks.

'The Market Has Declared Victory': S&P Up 10%, Nasdaq 10-Day Rally: US Stocks 'No Longer Care' About Hormuz

A clear divergence has emerged between the stock and oil markets: stocks are "looking forward," while oil is still waiting.

The Richest Fed Chair in History, Blocked by an Absurd Political Farce

Kevin Warsh, with a net worth exceeding $200 million and an investor in Polymarket, is 30 days and one crucial vote away from steering the Federal Reserve. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis's opposing vote is based on an unfinished investigation into the "Fed's $250 million renovation case." On the other end of the investigation, prosecutor Pirro shows no sign of backing down.

Powell's term as Chair expires on May 15. This is a hard deadline. However, his term as a Fed Governor doesn't end until January 2028. This means that even after his Chair term ends, he legally remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board. Powell has made it clear: if Warsh is not confirmed by May 15, he will continue to lead the Fed as "Acting Chair."

This creates an unprecedented situation: Trump has nominated a new Chair, but the old Chair refuses to leave, with both sides claiming the right to sit in that chair. The market now faces a classic binary game.

Path A: Pirro withdraws the investigation, Tillis switches to a yes vote, and Warsh takes office in mid-May. Path B: Pirro insists on appeal, Tillis doesn't budge, and Powell continues to lead as Acting Chair—meaning sustained uncertainty.

Who sits in the Fed Chair's seat 30 days from now will redefine the rules of the game for global capital markets in the second half of 2026. For those in the crypto market, every variable points directly to asset prices.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Is There a Secret to Finding 'Pump-and-Dump' Coins That Surge Dozens of Times in Days?

Jia Mi Wei Tuo's definition of a "pump-and-dump" coin is: spot control rate basically above 96%; has Binance futures contracts (whether it has a spot listing is less important); typically uses over-the-counter leveraged financing to violently pump and dump in short bursts, gathering massive liquidity and counterparties; the manipulators profit by triggering long/short liquidations and collecting funding rates, ultimately completing the spot sell-off to finish the entire harvesting process.

Although we can find clues of manipulation from many angles and even win in the "pump-and-dump" game through such data analysis, each "pump-and-dump" coin's situation is difficult to generalize through analysis and replicate in every game.

The manipulators behind "pump-and-dump" coins are the ones holding the script. They can manipulate data to confuse retail players and have multiple ways to harvest them for profit.

How Can an Average Person Identify if a Token Has a Manipulator Behind It in 10 Minutes?

Calculate token concentration by merging related wallets; focus on the authenticity of trading volume—Vol / Holder (OI) ratio; monitor DEX liquidity pools; focus on turnover rationality—24h Vol / Market Cap; trade count vs. volume—large order proportion; address/account/oi growth rate vs. price change rate—determine which stage the manipulator is in.

No manipulator, no market movement; manipulators are the underlying structure of this game.

The only opportunity for retail lies in shorting, but shorting doesn't guarantee a win and still requires extremely high skill and effort.

Web3 & AI

Even Facing Gunshots and Jail, Why Do Small-Town Americans Oppose AI Data Centers?

Data centers are becoming targets for anti-tech, anti-government extremists. The bottleneck for AI capacity expansion has, for the first time, jumped outside the negotiating table of power contracts and appeared on the recall ballots cast by 13,200 people.

A Collection of Chaos in Token Relay Stations: After Research, I Don't Dare Use Them at All

Using unofficial AI model API relay stations poses serious security risks, not just service quality fraud, but potentially becoming a channel for man-in-the-middle attacks, leading to theft of user code, privacy data, and even system control.

If you must use one, you can choose official native direct connections, or only use reputable gateways like OpenRouter with high credibility endorsements. Implement extreme physical isolation and turn off all unsupervised autonomous execution modes.

AI Agent Trading Is Really Profitable: Turning $100 into $200k in 8 Days

The author deconstructs the recently popular AI Agent trading system "Lana." It's not just a simple automated trading script but an operating system with its own trading logic.

Strict selection of targets, only trend trading, clear stop-loss, and dynamic take-profit. From initially feeding data to build the skeleton, making it understand what's happening in the market; to forming structure through continuous correction and constraints, giving it stable judgment boundaries; to behavioral distillation filling in the details, allowing it to gradually possess decision-making paths and preferences close to humans.

The final result is no longer just an execution tool, but a "Lana" capable of making consistent choices in complex markets. It doesn't rely on emotion or pursue predictions, but uses a repeatedly verified method to participate in the market and amplify results.

Prediction Markets

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets is Stuck at Stage Three

Prediction markets are moving from niche to mainstream. The change prediction markets bring to finance is that almost any future event can have a real-time, liquid price benchmark.

Institutional adoption of Kalshi occurs in three stages: data access, system integration, and actual trading. Currently, most institutions are still in the first stage, some have entered the second, and only a few are in the third. An important obstacle preventing institutions from entering the third stage is that current prediction market trading requires full margin—a $100 position requires depositing $100.

Can You Make Stable Profits by Blindly Following Polymarket Pre-Game Win Probability to Trade NBA?

The author backtested 1,096 games from the NBA 2025-26 regular season and found that pre-game probabilities are already fully priced. Blindly following the market won't make you money, but you won't lose much either (ROI -1.87%).

Policy & Stablecoins

The White House Did the Math: How Much More Can Banks Lend if Stablecoin Interest is Banned?

The GENIUS Act does not explicitly restrict third-party platforms from offering interest-like yields. Parts of the currently proposed CLARITY Act attempt to close this loophole.

The latest CEA research report attempts to prove that banning stablecoin interest payments has minimal effect on protecting bank loans—if stablecoins could pay interest, bank loans might evaporate by $2.1 billion, not the $1.5 trillion economist Andrew Nigrinis mentioned last summer.

Hong Kong's 'Open Scheme' Real Target Was Never Stablecoins

The author makes a bold speculation.

Stablecoins provide Hong Kong with something it could never create on its own: free demand-side momentum. Hype, media, KOLs, VCs, global narratives. Hong Kong's real aim is to use the stablecoin regulations to push e-HKD.

Major currency zones are all doing the same thing: extracting their currency's clearing sovereignty from the SWIFT-era correspondent banking architecture and placing it into their own CBDC or stablecoin architecture. Hong Kong's core asset—access to the USD clearing system—is depreciating. Hong Kong never needed Web3—Hong Kong needs a ticket to the next-generation financial center. And the first batch of licensed stablecoin issuers are paying for this ticket.

Hong Kong Stablecoin Licensing: An 'Old Money' Entry Ceremony, a Mid-Game Break for Web3 People

HSBC and Standard Chartered proactively applied, proactively invested tens of millions of dollars, and proactively took on user education and scenario development costs. This is not the result of administrative orders but a natural outcome of rule design.

The regulatory shackles Hong Kong places on stablecoin issuers are arguably the strictest globally, meaning HSBC and Standard Chartered are voluntarily footing the bill to build "free" infrastructure for Hong Kong's Web3 ecosystem. HSM rooms, KYC/AML systems, on-chain monitoring, user education, merchant integration, cross-border B2B scenario implementation—these were originally the biggest pain points for ecosystem development, now borne by two note-issuing banks in the name of "commercial stablecoins."

They are road pavers, not toll booths.

Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides

Is Kraken Also Issuing a Token? A Guide to Ink's Season 1 Points Program

Weekly Hot Topics Recap

Policy & Macro Markets

Iran says negotiations have ended, no agreement reached with the US;

South Korea's Central Bank suggests introducing a circuit breaker mechanism to the crypto market, following Bithumb's erroneous operation incident;

The suspect who attacked the OpenAI founder's home has been charged with attempted murder, stating in confession to warn "humanity will go extinct due to AI";

X launches Cashtags feature in US and Canada, supporting crypto and stock data viewing and piloting embedded trading;

Opinions & Voices

Fed Chair nominee Warsh discloses cryptocurrency holdings;

Institutions, Large Companies & Top Projects

Goldman Sachs filed an application with the SEC for the Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (Analysis);

Kraken has confidentially filed for a US IPO, latest valuation around $13.3 billion;

Allbirds to sell its footwear business, transforming into an AI computing infrastructure company, stock price surges (Analysis);

WLFI unlock proposal sparks controversy, Justin Sun: condemns the ongoing token scandals created by bad actors within WLFI, criticizes WLFI unlock proposal (Analysis);