The current market is stuck in the dilemma of "disordered expectations": tariff policies repeatedly disturb market pricing, and the split between soft and hard economic data exacerbates the concerns of stagflation. The Fed's neutral and hawkish stance resonates with fiscal pressure, and the structural mismatch of the interest rate curve may trigger a double kill of credit assets. It is recommended to maintain a defensive position, focus on volatility repricing opportunities, and be wary of fundamental risk exposure under false data.

The U.S. market suffered a triple blow in stocks, bonds and currencies. The U.S. Treasury yield soared to 4.47%, the U.S. dollar index fell below 100, and gold broke through $3,200. The risk of stagflation emerged, the liquidity crisis and the spiral of selling U.S. Treasury bonds intensified, and the pressure of nearly 9 trillion debt maturing in 2025 was added. The market turned to defensive logic and safe-haven assets diverged.

This week, the Trump administration launched an unexpected reciprocal tariff policy, triggering violent fluctuations in global markets. U.S. stocks suffered the worst sell-off since 2020, with the S&P 500 plummeting 10% in two days. Commodities also collapsed, with crude oil and copper prices falling more than 10% in a single week, and safe-haven assets diverging significantly. The increase in tariffs this time was far beyond expectations, with a focus on Asian economies, and a clear political intention, which may trigger countermeasures from China and Europe to prolong the game cycle.

The risk of stagflation in the United States is increasing, with GDP expected to fall by 1.8% in Q1, unemployment rates rising in 290 of the 387 metropolitan areas, and PCE inflation stickiness becoming more prominent. Market risk aversion is dominant, gold is rising/US stocks and cryptocurrencies are under pressure, and the widening of credit spreads has exacerbated recession concerns. The April 2 reciprocal tariff decision may become a short-term trend. It is recommended to allocate gold and US bonds to hedge against volatility, and sell off technology and crypto assets at highs.

Funding rate arbitrage strategy is one of the more stable income strategies in the crypto market and is favored by institutions. However, for ordinary investors, this strategy is extremely difficult to implement and is often "visible but not achievable". This article will deeply analyze the basic principles and specific methods of funding rate arbitrage, as well as the core competitiveness of institutions in this field, to help readers fully understand its essence and application.

The Fed's "data dependence" stabilizes expectations, and gold breaks through $3,000! Next week, reciprocal tariffs may cause trade turmoil, and the market is cautiously defensive and waiting for opportunities to deploy. Inflation game + liquidity improvement, pay attention to core PCE data, and the strategy should be "both defensive and offensive".

Market adjustment continues, defensive assets become safe havens! Gold breaks new highs, BTC still has value in the long term, and the widening credit spreads sound the alarm. Next week, focus on the Fed meeting, interest rate cut expectations and QT suspension may become key signals of turning points!

The breakout of US stocks triggered a systematic sell-off, and the differentiation of non-farm employment showed pressure on the demand side. The Fed reiterated its inflation anchor target, and the policy balance tilted towards interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs and economic resilience still need to be verified by data. It is recommended to flexibly position in response to CPI/PPI guidance and capture the recession/recovery trading switching window.

The market is caught in a game of recession expectations: the U.S. Treasury yield inversion warns, funds are pouring into Treasury bonds for risk aversion, U.S. stocks and crypto assets are under pressure, next week's non-farm data may set the tone for the intensity of the "recession trade", defense is the main approach amid volatility, and the long-term outlook for innovation in the crypto track remains positive, and short-term volatility will not change the upward trend.

Bybit and Infini, two major platforms, have been attacked by hackers one after another. The isolation mechanism of cold and hot wallets and the loopholes in permission management have become fatal shortcomings. Although the market has seen a panic withdrawal of coins, the entry of $4 billion of institutional funds against the trend has confirmed the resilience of the industry. Investors urgently need to build an anti-fragile system, while paying attention to regulatory variables such as the EU Digital Asset Framework and the US FBI's anti-money laundering enforcement, and capture the opportunities of high-quality assets that have been wrongly killed during the reconstruction of security standards.

Most veterans with more than five years of trading experience can deeply understand that they often rely on intuition to trade in the early stage, but frequent losses make them realize that intuition is far less stable than the system. Intuition will magnify people's weaknesses, and the weaknesses in human nature are something we cannot completely overcome. We can only regulate them through the system. If you are a novice and still rely on inspiration to trade, then now is the time to start building your own trading system!

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