Data Interpretation: Does the Binance Ecosystem, the former "bull market perpetual motion machine" have the ability to fight?
Original Author: Nancy, PANews
Original Author: Nancy, PANews"Recently, Binance"Enemy
, On the one hand, the U.S. regulators are pressing harder and harder, and on the other hand, the crypto community has erupted disputes around the standards and benefits of Binance’s currency listing. In addition to expressing dissatisfaction with the rate of return, they have also questioned the new listing standards. The entanglement with US regulation is bound to be another protracted legal battle, and the outside world generally believes that it will not until the two parties settle.
Standing at the center of the storm of public opinion, as a former "bull market perpetual motion machine", does the Binance ecosystem have the ability to resist? Can Binance’s value capture still surprise? Is the "traffic effect" of this leading encryption company still there? PANews tried to find out from the data.
Both market share and on-chain ecology have accelerated recovery
Compared with the sluggish market of mainstream currencies, in the past period of time, BRC 20, Meme, etc. stole the market limelight by relying on the myth of getting rich by thousands of times and tens of thousands of times. The active CEX (centralized exchange) traffic of these concept currency transactions has been DEX and Bitcoin trading market share. According to data from The Block, at the end of May this year, the ratio of DEX to CEX spot trading volume exceeded 21% for the first time. The trading volume of CEX was once at the lowest level in this year's history, and has now dropped sharply to 13.9%.
However, behind the seemingly prosperous scene of these popular concept coins is a large number of survivors’ deviations. Except for a very small number of “smart money” who successfully bet, more investors are facing risks such as insider trading, being buried in front-runners, and projects running away. . Cases that successfully earn high profits are more likely to be disseminated by the community. In fact, the current popularity of these altcoins continues to decline, market funds have also begun to flee, and the market heat has returned to CEX.
According to The Block data, as of June 7, the market share of Binance’s monthly transaction volume peaked at 62.01% in February 2023, and then continued to decline to 48.58% in March and April. It's time for the Meme and BRC 20 craze. However, after April, the market share of Binance’s trading volume began to rise significantly to the current 52.9%.
Not only that, but the BNB Chain ecology has also begun to recover. According to the Q1 market performance of 15 L1 public chains counted by Messari, BNB Chain’s first-quarter financial revenue and market capitalization annual and quarterly cumulative percentage changes both ranked second on the list, second only to Ethereum. At the same time, BNB and ETH are still No. 1 The only deflationary token in Q1.
The BNB Chain browser data shows that in recent months, transactions on the BNB Chain have continued to be active. As of June 8, the total number of transactions on BNB Chain has rebounded to 4.064 million, an increase of 80.2% from the beginning of the year. At the same time, from the perspective of the number of addresses, since 2023, the number has increased by more than 110 million, an increase of about 47.8%.
In addition, the daily gas fee consumption of BNB Chain has also continued to increase, an increase of 53.1% from the beginning of the year, which confirms that its ecology is active. Recently, Binance also launched a new Gas Grant program, which will provide a gas fee incentive of US$200,000 per month to qualified projects, which may attract more projects to join.
It is worth mentioning that in April this year, the BNB Chain development team launched the decentralized storage infrastructure BNB Greenfield and has launched the test network "Congo", and will launch the main network in Q3 this year. As the data and storage layer of the BNB Chain ecosystem, the launch of BNB Greenfield will further stimulate the growth and prosperity of the BNB Chain ecosystem. In addition, BNB Chain is expected to upgrade the "Luban" hard fork (BEP-126, BEP-174 and BEP-221) on June 12, which will create a faster and safer network for users, and the optimization of user experience means This will feed back the ecosystem of BNB Chain.
Of course, the most direct relationship with ordinary users is whether the assets listed on Binance can really bring value. "BRC 20, Meme, etc. are soaring, but all kinds of value coins are no longer interested." Under the crypto bear market, altcoins with dozens of times the rate of return are sought after by funds, which also makes many believe in value investing. "Classical players" were anxious for a while. The main reason behind the "retail investor revolution" is that assets are greatly discounted in a bear market environment, and investors urgently need more stable and generous returns.
Low-priced coins are easier to capture high gains
For players such as Meme, the high multiples of small funds are the main motivation to participate. In addition to high-net-worth or institutional users, small and medium-sized investors are also the main participants in the market, which also makes low-priced coins their favorite sector, and the data also confirms this.
Judging from the 11 projects (including two IEOs) that Binance will launch in 2023, projects with lower issue prices will have relatively higher growth rates, such as ID and EDU, which also explains to a certain extent that projects with low unit prices have called for Stronger and more attractive to investors.
Of course, on the whole, these new projects have shown a good market rate of return. Judging from the closing price increase on the first day, the average growth rate of these projects reached 383.9%, among which EDU, SUI and ARB performed the best; from the perspective of the highest return rate in history, the average growth rate was as high as 823.4%, especially the ID and EDU highest doubled respectively 41 times and 32.8 times, and 83.3% of the project yields are ahead of Bitcoin in the same period; from the perspective of the time required for the highest profit, users can obtain the highest return on average for 17 days, and the projects with a new high within a few days account for 58.3% overall.
From this point of view, compared with high-risk assets such as Meme, while acting as the "gatekeeper" of high-quality investment targets, Binance also generally brings considerable benefits to users. Although there has been no project with a similar 100-fold effect since GMT in December 2022, Binance’s currency-listing project has a very bright return rate under the downturn of the bear market, and tends to provide users with more stable returns .
"The underlying logic of listing on Binance is to try to list projects that can live longer and bring returns to users. This is actually the gap between investment research capabilities and aesthetic differences. Which platform can identify suitable listings for a long time? Project and timing, which platform users can live longer, this is the core competitiveness of the platform. (For) the Launchpad project, what price we get to the user is the lowest we can talk about, so users IEO grab Basically, everyone can make a profit. But the price in the secondary market is not under our control. As for who buys cheap chips and who sells them early, Binance does not control, but the project party must unlock according to the public notice, and Binance will supervise. " Binance co-founder He Yi recently said in the community.
Dozens of times the bear market returns still exist
Looking back on Binance’s performance in new markets in the past, with its excellent marketing and the liquidity of leading trading platforms, whether it is the empowerment of project parties or the return on investment for users, Binance’s previous “coin listing effect” has It is obvious to all. So, in the current bear market environment, let’s see if Binance’s money-making effect is still there from the launchpad projects and the return rate of BNB held over the years.
According to PANews statistics (denominated in USDT), Binance Launchpad has launched a total of 17 projects so far, most of which have achieved dozens of times the rate of return. From the perspective of holding costs, the number of projects with low prices and high gains is relatively large, including TKO, C 98, BETA, GMT, ID and other projects that are more likely to attract most investors; Looking at it, the average increase of 17 projects reached 1458.2%, among which EDU, ID, HOOK, LAZIO, BETA and TKO performed best; In particular, GMT has the highest rate of return as high as 416.8 times; from the perspective of the highest profit time, the average holding time for users to obtain the highest profit is 34 days, and projects that hit new highs within a few days account for 52.9% of the total. However, in terms of yield, projects with a longer holding time dimension have relatively higher returns.
According to the annual division, from the perspective of the first-day return rate, there is a large difference in the number of new listings in Binance in 2021 and 2022, but the average return rate is basically the same, both exceeding 1371%. In 2023, although there are only 2 new IEOs projects, but the average increase is in the lead, reaching 2092%. In addition, from the perspective of the highest increase in history, the average income in 2022 far exceeds that of the other two years, exceeding 153.5 times, mainly due to the 100-times project GMT, followed by 3690% in 2023, and the time and cost required are relatively low. The number of new listings on Binance Launchpad is also in line with the popularity of the market. Under the bear market, although new projects emerge in an endless stream, there are still few high-quality projects, and the frequency of new listings has also decreased significantly, and the number has not been gathered for new listings.
In addition, according to the participation requirements of Binance Launchpad, the user input amount is determined based on the average holdings of BNB, so what is the market return of BNB? From the data point of view, in 2021, BNB has doubled by more than 11.6 times throughout the year, and Bitcoin’s return in the same period is only 64.4%. After the market began to bearish in 2022, BNB fell by about 52.5% for the whole year, while Bitcoin fell by more than 65.3% , in contrast, BNB is more resilient; since 2023, BNB has only risen by about 12.2%, which is 62.3% behind Bitcoin. , BNB as a platform currency is more or less affected.
