SignalPlus Macro Research Report 20230606: Inflation soft landing, SEC launches charges against Binance

特邀专栏作者

2023-06-06 15:06 (UTC+8)

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The stock and bond markets reacted more stably. The cryptocurrency market fell due to the US SEC’s accusation against Binance and CZ. Bitcoin and other tokens with high market capitalization fell by 7-13%.

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Inflation data will be released at 8:30 on the evening of June 13th. Bosses who have shorted IV should remember to take profit in time before the 13th; those who want to be long IV can make arrangements.U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index falls sharplyTo 50.3, lower than the expected 52.4, the lowest level since December, almost all items fell, with the employment index slipping to the lowest point in 6 months, new orders, exports and imports also fell; howeverStocks initially rebounded instinctively as price paid fell from 59.6 to 56.2, the lowest level since May 2020, market trading remains largely on a soft landing of easing inflation as the underlying narrative;

There are two more data releases on prices ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with the Atlanta Fed wages indicator on Thursday and the CPI on Tuesday.Similarly, U.S. bond prices rose sharply as the ISM non-manufacturing index missed expectations, and the yield curve steepened by about 5-7 basis points, but the short-term remains relatively stable, and is consistent with the recent "skip interest rate hike" argument consistent,The market is pricing in a June FOMC rate hike of just 7 basis points, compared to 20 basis points in July

, but 13 corporate debt offerings totaling about $20 billion helped keep overall bond yields steady.In the currency market,， 1,Market Response to Treasury's First Wave of Expanded T-Bill Issues Has Been Good

The $23 billion 3- and 6-month Treasury issue was priced at about 3-5 basis points, with bid-to-covers high, and funding markets appear to be returning to normal soon after weeks of debt-ceiling angst .The stock market tried to extend its winning streak yesterday,Apple stock manages to break record high ahead of its closely-watched WWDC, with high expectations for its new $3,499 headset garnering most of the attention, but ironically,No mention of "AI" in product announcements, sending shares down about 4% from highs

, and dragged down the performance of the major indexes.While perhaps not an immediate concern to confront, theThe recent gains in stocks have created a large correlation between stocks and the U.S. 10-year real rate and the balance sheets of the four major central banks.disagreement

, with technicals and FOMO sentiment now in the driver's seat, professional managers are struggling to keep pace with the index's gains, though this may be a level at which bulls take profits as we head into the slower-paced summer break.Furthermore, according to Citi estimates,

Investors are building a large net long position in US stocks, especially the Nasdaq index. The bank's model shows that Nasdaq's position is at the highest level in 12 years, and the cumulative profit has reached 7-8%, which greatly increases the chance of profit taking.Finally, the cryptocurrency market is once again in the news in a negative way,US SEC (finally) formally charges Binance and CZ with operating unlicensed operations, mismanaging funds and what Gary Gensler calls an “extensive network of deception”

, the SEC's Twitter post and its wording made their intent very clear.In addition, the lawsuit makes some more aggressive allegations, pointing out that some tokens traded on Binance.com and Binance.US, including Solana, Cardano, Filecoin, Polygon, Cosmos, Sandbox, Decentraland, Algorand and Axie Infinity, etc. offered for trading as securities,

This implicates other exchanges that also offer these tokens for trading.Bitcoin and other coins with higher market caps fell 7-13%,BTC futures saw the largest liquidation of longs in months, and open interest in BTC and ETH futures also dropped significantly on the day, showing a large amount of liquidation, as this accusation may have a wider impact in the short term,

Realized volatility jumped and the volatility skew towards puts intensified.

Finally, a quick summary of the lawsuit's allegations and likely implications:
Allegations that Binance & CZ Fraudulently Presented Independence Between Binance US and International
Binance.US operates as an unregistered exchange and lists unregistered tokens
The platform offers products to ineligible U.S. citizens and fails to fulfill KYC responsibilities in relation to criminal and sanctioned entity proceedsThe tokens involved include Solana, Cardano, BNB,BUSD (stablecoin)
, Matic and Atom
SEC Claims BUSD Stablecoin Is a Security
Pledge schemes are securities
SEC calls for asset freeze

SEC has obtained and leaked internal chats between CZ and his team

It’s no surprise that the US SEC chairman considers everything about cryptocurrencies to be a “security,” though perhaps the most important part of the lawsuit is what it means to consider BUSD to be a security, and whether its requested Binance asset freeze is limited to Binance.US, Or it will expand into a larger international business.

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