Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: BTC dominates the market, ARB ecology generally rises
Market View:
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Monetary liquidity improved. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March as expected by the market, but the hawkish speech believes that it will not cut interest rates this year. Panic has gripped the U.S. stock market for weeks. Just a fortnight ago, markets were pricing in a 50 basis point hike as inflation and economic data remained strong. But the Fed created $300 billion in new liquidity last week to address the banking crisis after concerns intensified at small banks such as Silicon Valley Bank, and market interest rates forecast only one 25 basis point hike this year. BTC outperformed US stocks and perfectly responded to the turmoil in the global banking industry.
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
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2. The whole market
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
The market has rallied this week, with BTC dominance rising and approaching June highs last year. ETH underperformed BTC and most altcoins failed to outperform BTC. The main line of market hotspots is concentrated on BTC, the concept of Hong Kong, and the ecology of the Arbitrum chain.
ARB: The Arbitrum chain is the L2 head public chain of ETH, and the total lock-up volume has been increasing in the past few months. ARB and OP adopt a similar Optimism Rollup technology route, and the ecology has recently developed benignly. With the launch of ARB tokens next week, it will bring more attention and funds, and promote the development of the protocol.
ZZ: Zigzag is the head order book dx of zkSync of the ZK public chain, and it is one of the few protocols that zkSync can interact with. With the support of Lumao Party recently, the daily trading volume of ZZ has exploded. ZZ can be used for handling fees, governance and IDO renewal in the future.
IMX: The IMX upgraded economic model of the ZK route, 20% of the platform fee is paid by IMX, and the game chain is cooperated with Polygon, but some organizations take advantage of the favorable conditions to ship.
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3. BTC market
3.1 Data on the chain
Transactions on the BTC chain hit a peak in recent years. The average monthly number of BTC transactions this week reached 310,000 per day, the highest level since April 2021, and a significant breakthrough in the annual average. The number of new users on-chain is approaching levels seen during the 2017 peak and 2021 bull run, which is a healthy sign. Miners are the main beneficiaries, with miner revenue rising this week to its highest level since June 2022.
Funds are basically flat, and the market is still a game of stock funds. The dominance of stablecoins has shifted back to USDT, and the market share has increased to nearly 60%.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1 and holders were overall in the red. The current indicator is 0.61, out of the green bottom-buying range.
3.2 Futures Quotes
Futures funding rate: The rate is lower this week. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures long-short ratio: 0.8. Market sentiment is bearish. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
The past week has seen one of the best weeks in history for BTC prices. A strong rally led by BTC is usually a healthy indicator of the start of a sustained uptrend, and broad market spillovers usually ignite altcoin season. In the long run, the tightening credit environment in the United States squeezes economic growth, which instead represents the beginning of the end of the bear market.
market data:
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2. Proportion of TVL of each public chain
TVL continued to rise this week, rising ~3.2b. Ethereum ecology and layer 2 rollup are rising with the market. From the data of the past seven days, Arbitrum has the largest increase, reaching 30.88%. Among other layer 2 public chains, Polygon rose 6.26%, Optimism rose 13.17%, and Avalanche rose 10.51%.
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3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol
3.1 ETH lock-up volume
3.2 BSC lock-up volume
3.3 Tron lock-up volume
3.5 Polygon Lockup Amount
3.6 Arbitrum lock-up volume
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4. History of ETH Gas fee
Current on-chain transfer fees are about $1.61, Uniswap transaction fees are about $14.49, and Opensea transaction fees are about $5.63. Affected by hot events, the current on-chain gas has risen, but the average level is still in a downward trend. In recent weeks, the gas fee has remained in the bottom range, and the market still lacks hot spots. From the perspective of gas consumption, Arbitrum sequencer occupies the head position, followed by Uniswap.
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5. Changes in NFT market data
5.1 Market value of NFT index:
5.3 Overview of NFT transactions
5.4 Analysis of NFT buying addresses
According to recent data, Blur's market share has surpassed Opensea by a large margin. From the perspective of volume, it can occupy ~81% of the market, an increase of 10% from last week. There are no obvious hotspots in the NFT market this week. Combining the data of this week and last week, it can be seen that the floor price of the top blue-chip NFT projects has been falling for two consecutive weeks. Cryptopunck fell by 11%, BAYC's floor price fell by 14%, and MAYC fell by 14%. %, Doodles fell 8.52%. At the same time, it can be seen that the number of buyers entering the market has increased, mainly due to returning buyers, but in the long run it is still in a bottom range, and both the market and users need to be driven by hot spots.
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Disclaimer: All Foresight Ventures articles are not intended as investment advice. Investment is risky, please assess your personal risk tolerance and make investment decisions prudently.
