At present, it is still a rebound,not a reversal. It is necessary to recognize the current situation丨Market Analysis

BTC market analysis

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BTC market analysistext。”

Read two news first, and then dispel your illusions for everyone;(one)"”

June 28th, according to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the range of 0%-0.25% in September is 96.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 0.25%-0.50% is 3.3%; 11 The probability of maintaining interest rates in the range of 0%-0.25% is 0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 100-125 basis points is 0.6%, the probability of raising interest rates by 125-150 basis points is 96.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 150-175 basis points is 0%. The probability is 3.3%(two)"Bank of Communications International issued a report that LPR remained unchanged for 14 consecutive months. Since its quotation is directly linked to the MLF interest rate, the market regards the MLF interest rate as the weathervane of the LPR quotation. On the 15th, the central bank carried out an MLF operation of 200 billion yuan, and the winning bid rate remained unchanged at 2.95%, which was a continuation of the same amount at maturity. Therefore, the market generally has strong expectations for the stability of the LPR in June. Liquidity among banks was generally stable. Last week, the open market realized a net investment of 50 billion yuan. On the 24th, the central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation of 30 billion yuan in a single day, which was the first change in the amount of operations since March 1. Due to the disturbance of funds this month by factors such as local government special bonds, fiscal taxes, etc., the central bank has increased its investment to maintain stable liquidity in the middle of the year.

It is estimated that the interpretation of the two messages is somewhat difficult, and the translation of the first message is

Fed likely to start raising interest rates in November, This is what we reminded everyone to pay attention to the difference between the actions of the Federal Reserve's mouth and the actions of the body, and don't be confused by the enemy and make unclear operations.The second news is very simple "LPR's constant liquidity margin has tightened for 14 consecutive months." Both China and the United States have made the same move. Is the market rebound an opportunity or a risk in anticipation of monetary liquidity tightening? I think that's pretty clear.

At present, this trend can gain some rebound, but

To be clear this is a bounce, not a reversal, The market has no chance of reversal, and there will be no bull market in the short term. This is a structural bear market, and everyone must be clear about this.In the short term, it is still impossible for BTC to break through 40,000, and now 40,000 is still an important technical reference point for bull-bear conversion. At present, whether the bottom of 30,000 can be stabilized may be the most concerned issue of the market, because if the interval bottom of 30,000 cannot be held, the market will enter a truly pessimistic situation, and I personally judge that this is only a matter of time.Because of this pessimism, IGive up any small game rebound opportunities

. This is my response. Many friends said that you have been in the financial market for so many years, and you should easily earn more than a hundred times in this field. It is true that this market has a lot of excess alpha returns, just like the 1930s to 1970s. Just like the U.S. stock market in the 1900s, at that time there was a man named Livermore, who once became famous and died in poverty after a liquidation; at that time, there was another person named Buffett, although he also made some money at that time, But not many. More than 95% of Lao Ba’s real wealth was earned after he was 55 years old, that is, after the 1980s. I am very clear that what I personally earned is

Trend + Value Fundamentals + Currency Speculation + Sentiment FOMODon't think that I can step on any opportunity, and don't think that my analysis is sound, so I will operate and earn that profit.。

Spend some time by yourself to study the background, data and fundamentals of the project, and then lie in ambush before the trend rises

ETH market analysis

Fairy tales are fascinating, but you are not a cowherd, nor are you a seven fairies.first level titleETH market analysis

, before we analyzed the rebound configuration opportunities below 1800 to enter the market, but I did not enter, because I am pessimistic about the long-term trend, I still have to wait until the situation is clear before making an entry strategy.

other

I still have great confidence in this market, but it needs to be given time to grow.first level titleother