In the second half of the bull market, how do investors plan?
Yesterday I shared with you some of my views on the latest resolution of the Federal Reserve. There are many readers leaving messages at the end of the article. It can be seen that everyone is very concerned about this macro policy. It is probably because everyone agrees that this policy has a great impact on the digital currency market. big.
How much impact will this policy have? In my opinion, we only need to pay attention to whether it lasts until the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
Because my previous forecast for this round of bull market is probably at the beginning of next year at the latest. As long as the macro environment remains unchanged during this period of time, the biggest factor affecting the bull market can be determined, and the remaining factors that may determine the market trend are the ecological changes in the circle and the flow of funds outside the circle.
Regarding the ecology in the circle, I have already shared it in the previous article. I think that the only thing that can continue to generate hot spots is NFT. The climax of DeFi in this round of bull market has passed; Ethereum 1559 can bring a wave of hot spots for a short time, but it will take a long time to truly show its effect. It directly stimulates emotions at the user level. So after all the calculations, there are not many hot spots that can continue to ferment.
Regarding the flow of funds outside the circle, what I have seen so far is that MicroStrategy continues to sell stocks to buy Bitcoin, which means that MicroStrategy believes that the future trend of digital currency is better than that of US stocks; in addition, the company is also preparing to Issuing junk bonds to raise funds to buy Bitcoin is a typical use of cheap interest rates to borrow money to buy assets.
Borrowing cheap money as heavily as MicroStrategy is an opportunity that many institutional investors can't pass up right now. Therefore, I believe that there must be more than one institutional investor like MicroStrategy in the market, and they will enter the market later, but everyone is still watching from the sidelines, waiting for hot spots to detonate.
In addition, judging from the trend in the first half, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum showed the kind of excitement accumulated during the usual bull market climax. In my opinion, not only in the digital currency market, but also in all traditional markets. Both are rare in the investment market.
So I still believe in the second half. But for the second half, it is difficult to estimate how far the market will go and how much room there is. This will play a greater role in detonating the hot spots in the market and the off-market emotions that the hot spots can drive.
At the current price of the market, if investors still want to enter the market, then invest their limited funds in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Buying Bitcoin and Ethereum is relatively the least risky and most profitable at this stage. Guaranteed.
At present, there are still new projects emerging in the market, and many of them are related to DeFi. But in my opinion, this does not indicate that the popularity of DeFi is still there, because most of these new projects are imitations of existing head projects, and they do not even have micro-innovations.
This is mainly because there are already mature open source codes for reference in the DeFi field, so it is not difficult to copy a project, so some speculative teams will use marketing methods to promote these imitation tokens. However, these imitation disks are only temporarily popular, and it is difficult to have long-term sustainability. In the second half of the bull market, there may be a short-term climax brought about by the atmosphere, but it is more likely that there will not even be a short-term climax but only a short-term climax. Fleeting.
It is recommended that ordinary investors should not pay too much attention to these imitations.
