Long-term planning for investing in digital currency

In recent days, two heavyweight figures in high-level supervision have expressed clear views on some current phenomena in the financial field: one is Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People's Bank of China, and the other is Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.

Let's take a look at what they said first:

Zhou Xiaochuan: "When it comes to the innovation of cryptocurrencies, China's attitude also focuses on how you serve the real economy in many analyzes and discussions. If you can make important services for the real economy, then you may pay more attention to it. , and are willing to invest more resources in research and development and trials in this area. On the contrary, it will be weaker.”

Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that China puts a lot of emphasis on financial services for the real economy, and financial services and financial markets must be closely connected with the real economy. Therefore, many people may think that many other countries have similar concepts, but this is not the case. Many countries in the world do not mention financial services to the real economy, nor do they particularly emphasize the close relationship between finance and the real economy.

Guo Shuqing: "Those who speculate on foreign exchange, gold and other commodity futures will hardly have the chance to make a fortune, just as those who bet that housing prices will never fall will eventually pay a heavy price."

At first glance, the remarks of the two seem to have little connection: one talks about digital currency, the other talks about traditional finance. In fact, if we think further, we will find that the remarks of both of them are of great significance to digital currency investors --- we must prepare and plan for a long-term protracted war.

I think Zhou Xiaochuan’s remarks pointed out the core basis for the formulation of my country’s digital currency policy: that is, financial technology must be able to serve the real industry. If it cannot, it will be difficult to support it from the policy side.

Since the birth of Bitcoin, all digital currencies and the various ecologies in the public chain formed today, such as DeFi, etc., seem to me to be happening in another parallel world, and they have nothing to do with the real economy. .

If you insist on finding a related one, I am afraid that only NFT can be related to the real economy in all subdivided fields. At present, this connection means that we bought an NFT token on Ethereum, and then this token corresponds to a rare or valuable item in real life. This relationship cannot be said to be meaningless, but in my opinion, it is actually rather far-fetched and has limited meaning. Whether there will be subversive changes in the future remains to be observed.

But in general, I think that for a period of time in the future or even for a long time (5 years or even longer), digital currency is still just another ecology that occurs in a parallel world, and the possibility of it having a relationship with the real economy is still uncertain. will be too big.

In addition, Zhou Xiaochuan specifically mentioned that my country's policy that the financial sector must serve entities does not exist in other countries. This is the first time that I have been reminded of the major differences between my country's policies and other countries' policies.

Now let’s review the policies of the United States, Japan and other countries to supervise digital currencies, and we will find that these policies are generally related to anti-money laundering and anti-illegal activities, so the focus of supervision is mainly on real-name, KYC, etc. These policies are mainly to ensure access to The funds are legal. As for whether digital currency can serve the real economy of those countries, it has never appeared in media reports and their regulatory statements.

So from this perspective, we can predict that in the future, my country's continuous supervision and strict prevention of digital currencies will be certain. The market fluctuations caused by these policies seem to be inevitable.

Therefore, every digital currency investor should think carefully about whether he can bear the above risks, and whether he can accept the problems faced by investing in digital currency in our country. If you enter without preparation, you may not only gain nothing, but you may also be upset by various regulations and market fluctuations, and you will be out of the game helplessly.

If we are mentally prepared to fight a protracted war, then we must think about the way out and the countermeasures.

This brings us to the significance of Guo Shuqing's speech.

I have always emphasized that since we need to prepare for a protracted war when investing in digital currency, we must ensure that our lives will not be disturbed, and we must ensure that we have stable legal currency income and investment income in legal currency.

In Guo Shuqing's speech, when it came to risks, he mentioned almost all areas of the traditional market: foreign exchange, precious metals, commodities, and especially housing. This shows that everyone in these fields should not have a fluke mentality. The country will definitely crack down on speculation and maintain a high-pressure state. So the benefits in these areas are probably quite limited.

But there was one area Guo's speech didn't mention: the stock market.

We carefully looked at the country's policy announcements in recent years, and every time we mentioned risk prevention, we didn't mention the stock market much. Therefore, under such a policy market in our country, I think that only the stock market is the only one that the country will not introduce high-pressure policies in terms of supervision, and there may be a lot of room for it in the future.

For ordinary people, I think the best way to invest in A shares is to buy an index, such as the CSI 300 Index.

We can only cope with the protracted battle of digital currency investment if we are prepared with both hands and make a long-term plan.