Are you a "beneficiary" or a "victim" in the era of flooding?

In my article yesterday, I wrote about the new budget proposed by the President of the United States. This budget has once again become the focus of discussion in all financial media.

This budget is only a proposal now, it still needs to be approved, and we will continue to observe whether it can be approved in the end and whether it will be greatly discounted in the end, but I believe that even if it is discounted, it will be approved in the end, that is, it will be released. Trends are hard to change.

The president who came to power this term and the party that controls Congress are both Democrats. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, advocates big government, and its preferred fiscal policy is basically to tax the rich and large companies, and to distribute benefits to ordinary people.

Moreover, under the current circumstances, what the United States is facing is not only the problem of economic recovery, but also the strategy of comprehensively suppressing China, accelerating the return of manufacturing, and increasing investment in science and technology. Biden recently mentioned in public that the United States must be number one in the world and must lead the world. These views of his are not only the ideas of the Democrats, but also the ideas of the Republicans. It can be said that containing China, returning manufacturing industries, and increasing investment in various fields in the United States have become the consensus of the two parties and even the basic strategy of the country.

Starting from these two points, the United States needs a huge investment anyway, and it is a long-term investment, and the US government must see the effect of this investment before it stops.

To achieve this goal, borrowing and printing money has almost become the only way. From the perspective of the Democratic Party, this is just an excuse to throw off its arms and do it boldly; and the Republican Party will at most only impose some restrictions on certain aspects, and it is impossible to refute it at all, otherwise the Republican Party will face huge losses in terms of interests and public opinion. pressure.

In a video released recently, during his speech, Biden took out a list and told the public that the Republican congressmen on this list are those who oppose our plan. Publicly putting pressure on opponents in this way reminds me of the McCarthy era.

This further makes me believe that the United States has been tied to the chariot of releasing water.

I even think that in the future, even if the monetary and fiscal policies of the United States will be tightened, it will only be a temporary tightening. If at that time, the U.S. economy does not see a recovery momentum, and the U.S. investment in the manufacturing industry and technology field does not see results, the U.S. will return to the old path of releasing water.

Since the water is released, there are only two ways: one is to provide benefits to ordinary people, and the other is to increase investment in various fields and give money to enterprises directly or indirectly. This 6 trillion plan is the latter.

I believe that if the recovery of the U.S. economy is not satisfactory, and the return of manufacturing and investment in technology and other fields have no obvious effect, the U.S. will use these two ways of releasing water alternately.

Some readers asked if it continues in this way, will there be an eternal bull market? I don't think so. The laws of nature cannot be resisted by anyone or any country. After releasing water in this way and finally reaching a certain critical point, all the contradictions must erupt at the same time, and then the whole system collapses.

It's just that we have no historical precedent for this kind of collapse and the path leading to this kind of collapse, and we have no experience to test.

When the sensational economic crises in history broke out, the world was still on the gold standard. Due to the constraints of gold, the government could not rush to print money and could only wait for the system to collapse and start repairing itself. Those who took risks and printed money could only go to war in the end. solve conflicts.

Now that the gold standard is gone, there are no constraints on printing money. And the U.S. dollar is the world's currency. It can obtain benefits directly through financial means without resorting to war. This is a temptation that no US government can resist. So while I think an eternal bull market is impossible, only time will tell when and how this game will end.

For us ordinary investors, under such a big change, although we can't find any experience to refer to in history, we can still logically infer the approximate possible results, so we can use these approximate inferences to guarantee Under the premise of your own basic life, boldly participate in this game.

Because such major changes often breed historic opportunities, the decline of old forces must be accompanied by the birth of new forces, and the key to becoming a member of new forces depends on whether you dare to bravely participate in the game in such a changing situation.