Poor policies have no long-term impact on the market, and the bull market will continue
Late yesterday, the regulatory authorities issued another announcement requiring financial payment institutions not to carry out businesses related to virtual currency, and in conjunction with this, the "Shanghai Securities News" issued an article, proposing that if the virtual currency is to be completely blocked, the relevant departments need to go deeper. Upgrade technology.
Many investors regard this news as a big negative for the market, but I think these news may indeed affect some investors in the short term, but from the perspective of the overall market, it has little effect. It can even be said that we don’t need to care too much .
So far, in this round of bull market, all the bad news we have seen from domestic regulators is nothing compared to the 94 policy in 2017. As soon as the policy was introduced that year, the domestic digital currency transactions were pulled from the bottom, which almost shattered the confidence of most investors. Only a small number of investors persisted and enjoyed the more crazy wave of gains later.
Why? I think an important reason is that in addition to domestic digital currency transactions, overseas markets have also been booming, so after the domestic capital entrance was cut off, overseas transactions were quickly replenished, so overall, even if it is such a big "bad" "It has little impact on the follow-up market.
Furthermore,
Furthermore,The two core driving forces of this round of bull market are the oversupply of the U.S. dollar and the release of currency, and the other is the aggressive entry of overseas institutions. Neither of these two factors is related to domestic investors and domestic transactions.
Among these two core driving forces, the most fundamental is the oversupply of the US dollar. If there is no oversupply of the US dollar, I estimate that the time for overseas institutions to enter the market may not be so early.
So what we have to keep an eye on is the oversupply of the dollar.
If there is any policy that can completely reverse the trend of this round of bull market, then I think it must be a policy related to reversing the excessive issuance of the dollar. But any policy that can reverse the excessive issuance of the dollar (such as the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, interest rate hike, etc.) will be a policy that changes the direction of the bull market, and policies that have little to do with this will only affect market sentiment in the short term at best, and It will not change the direction of the trend in the long run.
So that's why on the policy side, my focus is on the policies of the US government, especially the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury.
Although the introduction of this regulatory policy has no fundamental impact on the market, I estimate that it will have a greater impact on our retail investors, and it may be more difficult to deposit and withdraw funds.
In fact, when we step into this field for the first time, we should have such mental preparations in our minds: we are entering an uninhabited land, entering a new world from an old world, and the new world and the old world are the same. Two completely different ecologies. Exploring in the new world, we will reap unexpected gains, and at the same time experience unimaginable ordeals. For the vast majority of people, they must first go through many hardships before they can finally achieve a positive result.
The incomprehension of others, the strange eyes of outsiders, and various negative policies from the policy side all test and challenge us. If you want to be successful in this field, you must be mentally prepared to meet all such challenges. Without such psychological preparation, we will not be able to reach the other side of victory, let alone see a bright future.
