Ethereum: It will surpass Bitcoin and become the underlying architecture of the encrypted world

Yesterday, the developers of the Ethereum community published a topic that caused widespread discussion in the community. The developer said that Ethereum will terminate POW mining at the end of this year and turn to POS mining completely.

This topic quickly attracted the attention of the industry, among which the miners received the most attention. Because if Ethereum can really switch to POS before the end of the year, it means that the existing Ethereum mining machines will no longer be able to mine Ethereum.

In this regard, the big miner Jiang Zhuoer expressed his opinion: in the current situation, even if the Ethereum mining machine can be used for mining for only a few months, it is enough to pay back. And the mining machines that are greatly affected by this are mostly ASIC mining machines, while graphics card mining machines are relatively less affected.

I think it's more important to see the other implications of this on this topic:

First of all, the implied meaning of this sentence is that Ethereum’s complete shift to POS mining is destined to happen. This is not only the idea of ​​individual Ethereum developers, but also the opinion of the entire Ethereum core development team, including V God.

Some time ago, the public opposition of miners due to EIP-1559 has aroused the vigilance of the Ethereum community, which makes the Ethereum community more firm in its idea of ​​getting rid of the constraints of mining machine miners and completely moving towards POS. Therefore, there are not many opportunities left for mining machine miners.

Although Jiang Zhuoer’s analysis believes that miners have a great chance of returning their capital, I still don’t advocate participating in Ethereum mining machine mining at this time and engaging in such bloody business. Because under the general trend, going against the trend and acting with a fluke mentality far outweighs the opportunities.

Secondly, in my opinion, this passage also implies the judgment of the Ethereum developer (and possibly the Ethereum team) on the direction of the next bull market: the peak of the bull market for Ethereum may be around the end of this year. Therefore, choosing the time point at the high point of the Ethereum market and fully cutting into Ethereum 2.0 can bring the greatest benefits.

Ethereum is moving from the current 1.0 to the future 2.0. There are risks and uncertainties in both technical iterations and community operations. These risks and uncertainties are easily digested, tolerated, and even regarded as "good" in a bull market; while in a bear market, it will greatly damage team morale and affect project progress.

This estimate is roughly similar to mine, and I also expect this round of bull market to reach the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

Finally, can Ethereum really turn to POS at the end of the year? It seems unlikely to me. Because for the sophisticated machine of Ethereum, it takes time to accumulate and hone in order to carry out such a large technological change. It is more likely that the smooth transition will not be possible until 2022 or even later.

So why is this developer making such a point? I think to a large extent, it is speaking to the community, and it is also psychologically building the miners. I hope everyone will be mentally prepared for this.

In addition, a new trend is increasingly emerging:That is, Ethereum has gradually stepped out of the independent market. I think this is a sign, indicating that with the gradual maturity of the ecology on Ethereum, Ethereum is very likely to get rid of the shackles of the Bitcoin market, and form a resonance with its own ecology in terms of currency price, market value and market conditions.

Because the ultimate goal of Ethereum is not to become the second Bitcoin but to become the supporting platform and underlying structure of the entire encrypted world, the future market value of Ethereum is likely to exceed that of Bitcoin.