Ouyi OKEx Investment Research | Whether Bitcoin is extremely prosperous, what is the impact of the Fed's interest rate decision?

特邀专栏作者

2021-04-26 18:04 (UTC+8)

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According to relevant data, 68.06% of the main virtual currencies in the market rose 24 hours before the press release, which was significantly less than the 31.94% of the decline.

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According to relevant data, 68.06% of the main virtual currencies in the market rose 24 hours before the press release, which was significantly less than the 31.94% of the decline.

OKEx BTC/USDT Perpetual Contract:

News: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on the evening of this Thursday (April 29), and Powell will express his views on inflation and the current monetary policy. Since the Bank of Canada announced last Thursday that it will reduce the scale of bond purchases from the original 4 billion Canadian dollars per week to 3 billion Canadian dollars per week, the market’s concerns about the Fed’s similar remarks have been exacerbated. Once the Fed's recent consistent "dovish" remarks loosen, the capital market will inevitably come under pressure again. However, judging from the Fed's two recent statements, this probability is not high. Compared with inflation, Powell is more concerned about the sustainability of employment recovery, so it is difficult to reduce the scale of bond purchases before 2022.

Secondary market: As shown in the figure, Bitcoin has shown a clear rebound at the 120-day moving average. The largest rebound from last night to now is close to 13%, and it has led to a collective rebound in market sentiment. In the 4-hour chart, there was a bottom divergence structure on the eve of this rebound, and the trading volume showed signs of enlargement during the rebound. At the same time, the pattern of continuously decreasing rebound highs since 65,000 was broken. However, the current 4-hour moving average combination (MA30, MA60) is still in a short arrangement, and the price of the MA60 moving average is around 54300.

This round of rebound is more in line with the expectations of the day before yesterday. The currency price ushered in a rebound at the 120 moving average, and the rebound was stronger than expected. It is expected that the currency price will continue to rebound. For short-term support, we can focus on the 50500 line, which is regarded as the short-term strength and weakness dividing line. As long as this price does not break, the rebound is still in a strong state. For the upper resistance, first focus on the 54300 line, which is touched for the first time or triggers a drop in currency prices.

Support: 50500--49000--47000

Resistance: 53500--54300--57000

OKEx ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract:

ETH also followed Bitcoin in a strong rebound, and its trend structure is still stronger than Bitcoin, because ETH did not simultaneously hit a new low when Bitcoin hit a new low last night. On the whole, ETH is currently operating around the upward trend line and the 2555 range in the chart for most of the time.

At present, the rebound trend of the currency price has not shown signs of destruction, but it is close to the 2555 high point, and it is expected that it will be more difficult to see a sharp rise in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the first-line support of 2386 in the short term, as the short-term strength and weakness dividing line, and focus on 2555 for resistance.

Support: 2386--2330--2255

Resistance: 2555--2700--2800

Ouyi OKEx YFI spot (the official account of the marketing department does not publish the content of this currency)

The trend of YFI is basically the same as our analysis in the previous issue. The price of the currency ushered in a rebound at the upper edge of the intensive trading zone of 35800-38200. From the perspective of the strength of the rebound, it is relatively strong, but the trading volume has not been significantly enlarged. The phenomenon should be mainly due to the fact that there are not many active selling orders during the rebound process, and the market chips are relatively stable. At present, the currency price has signs of stagflation at the MA60 moving average of the 2-hour chart, but it is not obvious, and the active selling pressure is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the first-line support of 41600 in the short term, which can be regarded as the short-term strength and weakness dividing line, and the upper resistance should focus on the area around 44800, which is the resistance level of the trend line in the chart, and it is easy to usher in a callback when it is touched for the first time.