Opportunities and risks of Chia mining?

I talked about some of my views on Chia mining in my article a few days ago. Unexpectedly, the development of Chia mining in the past few days is so fast that it is almost unimaginable-it is so popular that the hard drives are out of stock.

According to the real reflection of the market, the hard disks are actually still in stock, but hard disk suppliers see such a large demand for mining and start to hold back the goods, which creates the illusion that the hard disks on the market are "out of stock".

I remember the year before last and last year, when Filecoin started to catch fire, there didn’t seem to be such a serious shortage of hard disks. At that time, as long as you had money, you could basically buy computing power or mining machines. This time Chia mining has become so popular, I think the main reason may be due to the bull market effect.

Will this phenomenon continue? From my current understanding, I can't see a reason to continue, or I will continue to observe for a while.

First of all, if it is purely functional, although Chia and Filecoin are both hard disk mining, the application scenarios of the two are really incomparable. Chia is much worse than Filecoin.

Secondly, from the perspective of consensus, can Chia develop into the second Bitcoin? I think that even if it can, it has to go through several rounds of bull-bear alternation like Bitcoin, and it can be proved by repeated phoenix-like rebirth. And now Chia has just walked a short distance in the bull market, so it is not clear whether it can survive the next few bulls and bears.

I even think that even if Chia can really become the second Bitcoin, we can draw such a conclusion by referring to the past price trend of Bitcoin: Even if Bitcoin falls from the top to the bottom of the mountain in a bear market, then Chia may also be the second Bitcoin. There is no escape from this rule. So even if you are really optimistic about Chia, there is really no need to intervene at this time. We just wait for the bear market and wait for it to fall to the bottom of the mountain before intervening calmly.

In Chia, I also saw an unavoidable problem with "mining coins" that I saw in "mining coins" such as Bitcoin and Filecoin: no matter how much the founder's original intention is to hope that everyone can participate fairly and conveniently, as long as Among them, commercial interests appeared. When this matter develops, it will definitely be the large-scale intervention of capital and the complete change of the mining structure, which will eventually cause ordinary players to leave the game sadly.

The original intention of Satoshi Nakamoto to create Bitcoin is that everyone can use ordinary computers to mine and participate. However, after the development of Bitcoin, ASIC mining machines appeared, and ordinary computers were completely excluded from the circle.

The original intention of Filecoin is to hope that everyone can contribute idle hard drives and make full use of the idle space in the world for valuable storage. But up to now, no miners will use idle hard drives, only high-end hard drives with stronger performance and larger storage capacity. Individual players can hardly compete with miners in mining. Even the Filecoin project party has given up support for individual miners and relied on large miners instead.

Similarly, Chia’s original intention is to hope that everyone can use idle hard disks to participate in mining, and change Bitcoin’s mining method of wasting energy and hardware. Now, there are almost no idle hard disks participating in mining, and they are all first-hand high-performance hard disks. To some extent, this has become a waste of hardware and energy, which has long gone against the original intention of the project founder. And if the project continues to develop and become the second Bitcoin, I am afraid that the professionalization of mining and the elimination of individual players will be unavoidable.

So I believe that even if there are new mining projects in the future, as long as the activities have commercial value, the outcome may not be the same.

Therefore, as ordinary investors, when we look at a new thing, if we are not lucky and miss the first soup, it is better to stop and think about it calmly. It is worth participating now. If we really want to participate in the long-term, think again I wonder if there will be a chance in the future.

Ask yourself these questions more, and our views on a matter will be much calmer and calmer.