The bull market has escaped the top, a key signal worth noting

The most work I have done during this period is to collect and analyze various information, summarize and reflect on my experience and lessons during the period from the start of regular investment in 2018 to the end of regular investment in 2020, instead of continuing to look for suitable investment targets , because I think that almost all valuable coins are priced quite high now, and I will not continue to buy at this stage.

There are also readers who always ask whether a certain token is worth continuing to hold. In fact, I have answered this question many times.So far, I have not sold any of the tokens I have invested in, because I think the bull market will continue, and it is still some distance away from the climax.

If we look at this issue from another angle, I can also suggest that if investors really have no confidence in the tokens they bought, they might as well follow their inner thoughts and operate according to their own ideas. But after the operation, it is best to take notes and write down your operations during the entire bull market. Then wait until the bull market has completely turned into a bear market, and then look back at your past operations, summarize which ones are right and which ones are wrong, especially review your mentality when performing those wrong operations, and find out the reasons. Sometimes the mistakes, regrets and regrets experienced by yourself can make you grow more.

In yesterday's article comments, two readers mentioned that the latest inflation rate in the United States reached 2.6%. It seems that our readers are very sensitive, and this is indeed a very critical data.

I once shared my guess on the follow-up trend of this round of bull market in the previous article,A very important factor affecting the follow-up trend of the bull market is when the Fed will raise interest rates.

Regarding interest rate hikes, in my impression, the Fed probably said these important things: it will probably not consider raising interest rates before 2023, it will tolerate an average inflation rate of 2% or more, and it will not consider raising interest rates until the economy fully recovers. interest.

Among these three sentences, I think the first sentence is to comfort the market, and the last two sentences are the key factors to consider whether it will raise interest rates.

The so-called "will tolerate the average inflation rate reaching or exceeding 2%" in the second sentence means that the average inflation rate must reach or exceed 2% for a period of time. Now this is the first time it has exceeded 2%, so according to this standard, I don't think the Fed will raise interest rates yet, and it will continue to observe.If the inflation rate in the United States continues to soar in the next few months, then we should be very careful. So we have to keep an eye on the inflation rate in the next few months.

The third sentence "will not consider raising interest rates until the economy fully recovers" I think is also the key point. I guess the Fed will take this factor into consideration with the second factor. So when will the U.S. economy fully recover?

Before discussing this issue, let's look at another important piece of information: the St. Louis Fed President said in an interview on Monday that if "when the vaccination rate reaches 75%, then we can discuss the issue of reducing QE." What does it mean?What it means is that the Fed chairman believes that when the vaccination rate reaches 75%, the US economy may recover quickly on the Kangzhuang Road.

According to the estimates of the well-known financial media Bloomberg, according to the current progress, the United States will probably reach this goal in August this year, while another well-known media Zerohedge estimates that it will reach this goal in June this year.

Combining all of the above information and what the Fed has said about raising interest rates, if we use the most aggressive estimates, the vaccination rate in the United States will reach 75% in June and the epidemic is gradually being brought under control, and the inflation rate will remain unchanged from now until June. If it continues to soar, then I think the Fed will not only consider shrinking its balance sheet, but may really consider raising interest rates.

And the most aggressive time point may be in August-October, possibly at the end of this year, and it is unlikely to be delayed until 2023.

And once the interest rate is raised, the bull-bear reversal of the market may come soon, and we will be ready to liquidate and exit on a large scale.