The bull market is headed, can you still buy now?

I estimate that many friends who ask this kind of question may have short positions or very few positions. They missed the opportunity to buy earlier or sold out their chips prematurely for various reasons. Now that the bull market is not over yet, I have some articles I also wrote about the expectations and longings for the second half of the bull market, so I always hope to seize some more opportunities in my heart.

I personally see whether a currency is worth buying or not mainly depends on two points: one is whether a currency has long-term investment value; the other is whether the price of this currency is low enough.

Whether a coin has long-term value is the fundamental premise for me to decide whether to buy a coin. Because I am not very good at judging the short-term trend of currency prices, I will not buy a currency because there may be room for short-term price fluctuations, but only because a currency has good fundamentals and long-term investment value.

The judgment on this is often particularly effective in bear markets. The bear market can especially test whether a coin is real gold or silver, while the bull market can often ascend to the sky, and pigs can fly, so false appearances are easy to appear in the bull market, which confuses people.

After judging whether a coin has long-term investment value, I will look at whether the price of a coin is low enough. The so-called low enough is a relative concept. I will judge from two angles:

One is to see if it is not much higher than its own lowest price, and the other is to judge whether it has fallen enough compared to its own highest price.Combining these two points is to judge whether its price has squeezed out the bubble now and whether there is enough room for growth in the future.

The judgment of this is also particularly easy in a bear market. In a bear market, the entire market atmosphere is sluggish and people are scattered. At this time, there is no excitement in the market, and people are especially easy to calm down and judge the price level through simple historical data.

So no matter how you look at it, judging these two factors is easier and more accurate in a bear market. Therefore, I only make major investments when I am in a bear market, and I buy a lot of coins that I am optimistic about.

In the bull market, I mainly wait and see:One is to wait and see how high the potential currency you are optimistic about can go, so as to judge the degree of market madness and the role of market sentiment in the process of currency price rise; In order to buy and hold in the next bear market.

Apart from waiting and watching, I seldom buy in a bull market, especially the coins I have already bought. I will hardly increase my position. I will only try to buy a few new projects that I particularly like. But even if I bought it, I used very little funds. After calculation, I might not even have one percent of it. It was purely for entertainment.

Take this bull market as an example. Basically, after December last year, I never increased my holdings. Only Filecoin continued to invest in the follow-up, and after Filecoin exceeded $30, I also stopped. .

Some friends will ask, why not buy when you are obviously optimistic about the follow-up development in the bull market? There are mainly two reasons for this:

One is what I have repeatedly mentioned. Even if the follow-up continues to be optimistic, the room for growth is getting smaller and smaller. If you continue to buy at this time, the profit space is getting smaller and smaller, and the risk is still increasing. The increase in risk will increase exponentially, so it is not worth buying at this time.

The second is to buy at this time, and the psychological pressure on investors will increase. Especially for investors who are new to the market, they often cannot resist this pressure and their mentality will be disrupted.

Just yesterday, the entire digital currency market experienced another general drop. According to the latest statistics, 300,000 people liquidated their positions, and the liquidation amount was close to 1.8 billion US dollars.

This is another blow to players who participate in leverage and contracts; it is also a blow to friends who can't stand loneliness and have recently entered the market to buy spot.

Let's imagine, if an investor was very optimistic about the second half of the bull market a few days ago, and bought it happily because of this, he was immediately hit by this blow. Under such circumstances, will his mentality still be rational and calm? If the mentality is no longer rational and calm, will the movements be deformed and more misoperations will occur?

In my opinion, such an adjustment is really normal, it is just noise in the process of market development, and does not affect the development of the market outlook at all, so we should continue to live and study, and ignore it at all.

Moreover, such subsequent adjustments will occur frequently, and each occurrence will hit a group of such investors.

So I can't say that the bull market has progressed so far, and you can't buy at all, but I want to emphasize that buying now will encounter various difficulties and embarrassing situations, which will bring great challenges to investors. Is it worthwhile to do so? Investors Think twice.