Review and Reflection on the Development of the Current Market

This round of the market has come to the present, and there are many aspects that are very different from my original concept.

Friends who have read my article a long time ago may remember that I estimated in the year before last and early last year (more precisely, before the outbreak of the new crown in February last year) that the peak value of Bitcoin in this round of market will be about 20,000 to 50,000. Ten thousand U.S. dollars.

At that time, I always thought that because we did not have ICO events like 2017 in these years, so the halving of Bitcoin alone in this round may have a very limited bull market effect, so I speculate that Bitcoin is about 20,000 to 50,000. 10,000 US dollars, while Ethereum can probably exceed 1,500 US dollars is very good.

However, what happened later surprised me because there were three explosive factors:One is the outbreak of the new crown, the other is the large-scale involvement of institutional investors and listed companies in Bitcoin; the third is the explosion of DeFi.

The outbreak of the new crown epidemic has once again opened the floodgates of the developed countries in the West led by the United States, and the currency flood is rolling in. In the past few days, all the media has focused on the new infrastructure plan of the President of the United States.This massive release of water has injected a steady stream of power into all assets, including digital currencies.

For the large-scale intervention of institutional investors and listed companies, just a year ago, I could not have imagined that it would be so fast and so fierce. I used to think that this trend might not come until the next Bitcoin halving in 4 years. But unexpectedly, even top institutions and top investors such as BlackRock, Bridgewater's Dario, Soros Family Fund, Oaktree Capital's Howard Marx, etc., the world's largest investment institution, have entered.

I couldn't even imagine the outbreak of DeFi. Because I have always believed that DeFi has some problems before, and it may not be able to explode into a brand new track. But the facts shocked me and forced me to change my way of thinking quickly.

Can the outbreak of DeFi be compared with the ICO of the year? So far, I am afraid that it cannot compare with ICO in terms of the number of people affected. Because back then, countless novice users could participate in ICO with one-click operation, and ICO had no threshold for novice users; but there are still many users who have not participated in DeFi at all, because its threshold is too high.But in the history of blockchain development, I think that the significance of DeFi is no less than that of ICO, because it has completely opened up a brand new and broad track.

The outbreak of the above three factors has completely reversed my previous forecast for the current market. Now Bitcoin has reached $60,000, and Ethereum has reached $2,000, which has long exceeded my expectations.

And judging from the current situation, just like a reader said in a message: "At present, there are no signs of a bear market in terms of news and technology."Therefore, this round of bull market will continue to move forward, and the real peak has not yet come. I even have a hunch that the future stories will only be more exciting and brilliant.

Looking back now and looking at my previous predictions for this round of market prices, first of all, I believed the old saying again: Man is not as good as God.

No matter how good we are, we can't predict the outbreak of the new crown. Without the outbreak of the new crown, we can't have this monstrous flood, flooding everywhere.

Furthermore, the development of the digital currency industry is really rapid. Before June last year, the circle was still filled with the upsurge of Bitcoin halving and Filecoin. Unexpectedly, the subsequent DeFi attracted almost all the attention and funds, and created a large number of funds in a very short period of time. star item.

As those of us who focus on the development of this industry, if we do not pay attention to the dynamics of the industry, we are very likely to lose valuable opportunities and even be completely eliminated.

We can think about it carefully: How many of those big Vs who became famous in the previous round of Bitcoin’s rise are still active in the current DeFi field? It really fits the poem:

Li Du's poems have been handed down thousands of times, but they are no longer new.

Talented people come out from generation to generation, each leading the way for hundreds of years.

The sudden riches in the past are now talked about by people, and the novelty has gradually disappeared. Now people have spread word of mouth about the miracle of the rise of the upstarts.

Finally, we must keep up with the situation and revise our outdated thinking and judgment in time, otherwise we may also lose precious opportunities.

I feel lucky about this. After seeing the effects of the above three factors, I no longer think that $50,000 is the upper limit of Bitcoin’s current round. Because of this change in thinking, I have been holding coins to date.