OKEx Investment Research｜Fed Rarely "Hawks", Bitcoin Continues to Rise Without Disturbance

Market Sentiment: According to the data from Feixiaohao, the rising volume of major virtual currencies accounted for 50.40% of the market in the 24 hours before the press release, which is almost the same as the 49.60% of the falling volume. Compared with the same period yesterday, the data has improved significantly, and the pessimism of the market has been restored.

OKEx BTC/USDT Perpetual Contract: (marketing software AICoin)

News: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in an interview with the media yesterday that the economic recovery is now faster than expected, and will consider starting to reduce the scale of bond purchases at some point in the future. This is the first time since Biden took office that the chairman of the Federal Reserve has made "hawkish" remarks. However, the market did not show excessive nervousness. On the contrary, the three major stock indexes in the US stock market fluctuated and rebounded. At the same time, Bitcoin also rebounded. With regard to this phenomenon of rising instead of falling after seeing bad news, mainstream institutions all believe that the short-term adjustment of the market has come to an end for the time being.

Secondary market: After Powell’s aggressive speech, Bitcoin fell slightly and rebounded, recovering 52,000 again (52,000 was the high point of the previous two rebounds). From the perspective of the kinetic energy indicator MACD, the recent downward momentum is significantly smaller than the downward kinetic energy of the MACD indicator corresponding to the downtrend that began on March 14. This phenomenon is a bottom divergence.

After falling below the key support of 52000 line, it quickly recovered. This form is a false downward breakthrough. Coupled with the bottom deviation of the MACD indicator, it shows that the market’s willingness to sell is not strong. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and rebound in the next two days . However, because the 4-hour moving average combination (MA30, MA60) is still in a short position, it is difficult to have a large rebound, and the resistance above 54700 is relatively large.

Support: 52000--49400--47700

Resistance: 54700--56700--58300

OKEx ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract:

Since ETH touched the 1542 line, it has been showing a rebounding trend. During the rebound, the trading volume did not appear to be significantly enlarged. At the same time, the 4-hour moving average combination (MA30, MA60) is still in a short position. The approximate price of the 60-day moving average in the picture is around 1662.

The above phenomenon means that there is not much room for a short-term rebound. You can first pay attention to the resistance near the 60-day moving average (1662), and pay attention to the strength of the fall after the price is blocked. It is expected that the probability of eventually returning above the 60-day moving average is too high.

Support: 1585--1542--1482

Resistance: 1662--1720--1805

Ouyi OKEx ATOM spot (the official account of the marketing department does not publish the content of this currency)

ATOM continued to linger around the 60-day moving average, and finally effectively played a supporting role to cause the currency price to stop falling and rebound. The fly in the ointment is that the trading volume has not been enlarged, which shows that at this stage it is more due to the exhaustion of selling orders, rather than a large number of active buying orders caused by intervention. However, looking at the overall situation, the upward trend has not been disrupted, so it is expected that with the stabilization and recovery, it will only be a matter of time before the volume increases, and we need to wait patiently.

It is recommended to focus on the 19-19.8 resistance area in the short term. With the current market sentiment, it is not easy to form an effective breakout in the short term, but as long as there is no obvious stagflation at the resistance level, the breakout of this area will not take too long.

Support: 17.00--16.20--15.10

Resistance: 19.00--19.80--21.00