OKEx Investment Research｜Powell’s Speech Did Not Meet Market Expectations, Liquidity Shrinkage Expected to Hit Global Capital Markets
OKEx BTC/USDT Perpetual Contract: (marketing software AICoin)
OKEx BTC/USDT Perpetual Contract: (marketing software AICoin)
News: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at a forum held by the "Wall Street Journal" last night. The core point is that the original easing plan will still be maintained at this stage and will not be increased. As the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond has continued to rise recently, it has risen above 1.5%, and the market has intensified concerns about monetary tightening. They are all looking forward to Powell's release of more easing signals, but expectations have failed. Liquidity panic appeared in the world's major capital markets, and all fell. The mainstream view generally believes that there is still room for U.S. bond yields to rise, and market liquidity is expected to remain tense, suppressing asset prices.
Secondary market: In the early morning of this morning, the price of Bitcoin fell again below the 4-hour period MA60 moving average, while the moving average is still running in a downward direction, which means that the previous day’s breakout was a false breakthrough, and such a trend will have a certain impact on market confidence . As can be seen from the figure above, the 52150 line we have mentioned many times has become the high point of this round of rebound. This kind of price (the important rebound high point in the previous period) also needs to be focused in the future, and it will often show similar trends. . At the same time, this round of downtrend has destroyed the characteristics of higher lows since March 1, which is also a negative signal for bulls.
It is expected that the decline in currency prices will likely continue in the next two days, and there may be a rebound during the period, but it is unlikely that there will be a substantial increase. It is recommended to focus on the first-line resistance of 48400, which can be regarded as the short-term dividing line of strength and weakness, and do not easily participate in the rebound market before standing at this price again. The lower support can focus on the 44,000 line. If the currency price adjusts to this point, or even falls below it, it will easily lead to the formation of periodic lows.
Support: 45800--44000--42500
OKEx ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract:
OKEx ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract:
ETH has adjusted downwards following Bitcoin, and it has also destroyed the recently formed low point. At the same time, the double-line MACD, the kinetic energy indicator in the 4-hour period, crossed the zero axis again and entered the bearish advantage area. From the perspective of trading volume indicators, the trading volume in this round of decline did not appear to be significantly enlarged. Compared with the round of decline in late February, it has shrunk significantly. This shows that although there is a certain degree of panic in the market at this stage, it has decreased significantly in comparison. .
This shows that although the market is weakening again, it is not particularly pessimistic. There is no basis for a decline like that in late February, so there is no need to worry too much. However, the probability of short-term continuation of adjustment is still relatively large. Below, we can first focus on the area near the first-line support level of 1342. If there is a stop signal in this area, it is expected to form a staged bottom again. For the upper resistance, you can first pay attention to the 1540 line, and treat it as a short-term strength dividing line. Do not easily participate in the rebound before breaking through this price.
Support: 1432--1342--1250
Ouyi OKEx ATOM spot
Ouyi OKEx ATOM spot
ATOM's rebound stopped at the 22 line, and now it has fallen again below the 4-hour MA60 moving average, and the confidence of the bulls has suffered a significant blow. Judging from the trading volume, there is no obvious amplification phenomenon, indicating that the active selling in this round of decline is not large. Compared with the trend structure of Bitcoin and ETH, ATOM has not broken the recently formed low point upward movement feature. From this perspective, ATOM is still relatively strong, and the attention is relative. The near low point of ATOM is at the 18th line. If it falls below, it means that the low point will move up and the structure will be damaged. We need to pay attention to this potential risk.
Then the support level that needs to be focused on in the short term is 18. The short-term trend can be cautiously optimistic before it falls below. If it breaks below, the decline will continue. It is necessary to pay attention to the first-line support area close to 15.5, and the possibility of a sharp drop after touching this area If it reaches this area and there is a stop signal, it is likely to be a better opportunity to buy low.
Support: 18.00--16.80--15.50
Resistance: 19.10--20.40--22.10
