OKEx Investment Research｜U.S. bond yields climbed and global stock markets plummeted, how can Bitcoin be alone?

特邀专栏作者

2021-03-04 18:13 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1460 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

Although the rise in U.S. bond yields has led to selling panic in the market, it is difficult to effectively reverse the current rebound in the short term, and the currency price is still expected to move upwards further.

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OKEx BTC/USDT Perpetual Contract: (marketing software AICoin)

News: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond once climbed to 1.491% yesterday. Concerns about rising inflation reappeared. Global stock markets all fell. Among them, the U.S. stock market fell sharply yesterday, and the Nasdaq 100 index fell by nearly 3%. The Nikkei and A-shares also fell sharply after the opening of the market. The Nikkei 225 closed down 2.13%, and the A-share ChiNext Index fell nearly 5%. Affected by this, the Bitcoin market is of course not immune to it. The round of market decline that started last night is closely related to this. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the trend of US bond yields. If it continues to rise, it will seriously suppress the overall performance of the capital market.

Secondary market: Affected by the rise in U.S. bond yields, the price of Bitcoin last night rose to 52,673 and then stagnated and fell back. Before the press release, it fell back to 49,000, and then rebounded. In fact, before the decline, the MACD indicator also gave a certain expectation of falling back, because at that time, the MACD indicator showed a top divergence phenomenon in the small-level chart, and this time the high point basically just touched the high point on February 25. This position It was no surprise that the first touch sparked a price pullback.

At present, it can be seen from the 1-hour cycle trend chart that there have been two pullbacks in this round of rebound since the beginning of the month, both of which stopped falling and rebounded at the 1-hour MA60 moving average. This signal needs to be paid attention to. At the same time, the upward movement of lows since the beginning of the month is intensifying.

From the perspective of overall performance, although the rise in U.S. bond yields has led to a sell-off panic in the market, it is difficult to effectively reverse the current rebound in the short term, and the currency price is still expected to move upwards. Next, we still need to pay attention to the MA60 moving average in the 1-hour period. As long as the moving average still maintains a clear upward trend, it is mainly to hold positions waiting to rise (referring to the short-term trend, and the upward momentum of the medium and long-term trend is more difficult to reverse). The upper resistance continues to pay attention to the 52150 line. If it touches again and still shows obvious resistance, short-term buyers consider leaving the market first to avoid risks.

Support: 49700--48500--47200

OKEx ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract:

Following Bitcoin, ETH surged to the 1660 line last night and then fell back. At present, it shows signs of stopping after stepping back to the 4-hour period MA60 moving average. Before this round of adjustments, ETH also experienced top divergence in small-level charts, which is an important factor that can explain the decline except for the news. From the perspective of trend structure, ETH is still relatively weaker than Bitcoin.

Although the performance of ETH is relatively weak, it has not destroyed the rebound structure, but the short-term trend needs to be followed closely. It is recommended to focus on the first-line support of 1537 first, which can be temporarily regarded as the dividing line of short-term strength and weakness. The upper resistance focuses on the 1660-1710 range, which is expected to be difficult to overcome in the short term.

Support: 1537--1500--1435

Ouyi OKEx ATOM spot

ATOM broke through the 4-hour MA60 for the second time yesterday and stepped back on the moving average slightly. Afterwards, it fluctuated and rose, and there was a short-term strong pull-up market. As of press time, the currency price showed stagflation at the 22 line, and did not hold high. We have mentioned the 22-line price many times recently. It is the area where important highs and lows overlap the most densely in the previous trend, and the later reference value is still very high.

Next, just focus on this price. It is best not to blindly chase the price before it breaks, so as to prevent buying the high point of the rebound in the stage. If there is a large-scale upward trend, it is hoped that the upward trend will continue further, and the high line can be seen. For the lower support, you can first pay attention to the 19.7 line, and if there are signs of stopping the decline near this price again, it may be a short-term low-buying opportunity.

Support: 20.40--19.70--18.60

Resistance: 21.30--22.10--24.30

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