How to judge the top of the bull market through market sentiment?
A reader left a message saying:
"I mentioned Bitcoin once in an ordinary life group, and then in the last week, three people in the group added me to WeChat and asked me where to buy Bitcoin. Is this a signal that the bull market has peaked? A lot of newcomers are running approach"
Seeing such a message, I am very pleased that some readers have begun to be wary of the market heat, instead of making investments based on feelings. It is very necessary for us to maintain such vigilance and sensitivity in the bull market, and to maintain a kind of awe of the market. .
When the bull market will peak is the focus of everyone's attention. As far as my personal experience is concerned, in addition to using some public data for analysis, sometimes I have to rely on some personal feelings and experiences. This feeling and experience may not be rational to some extent. Slowly build up after setbacks and workouts.
When they all start to pay attention to this market and enter this market, the last bit of heat left in the market will be squeezed out, and the bull market is almost close to the craziest.
As the bull market moves forward, newcomers will continue to enter the market along the way. Some are early and some are late. Those who enter the market early are the foresight, while those who enter the market late are the last to take over. Therefore, we have to use late entrants to judge whether the bull market has reached its peak.
So are the newcomers we saw entering the stadium early or late?
In my personal experience, there are three types of people:
1. People who are least likely to have time to pay attention to this kind of information.
2. People who are the least likely to be exposed to new things.
3. People who basically have no channels to receive new information.
So who are these three types of people?
Professionals working in high-end office buildings belong to the first category, because most of them are usually very busy and work overtime, and basically have no time to care about these things. 996 has exhausted them.
People who are old and don’t pay attention to new things at all belong to the second category. They may not care about the essence of things, but are interested in direct benefits. cared.
People who are completely insulated from information and have little connection with modern life belong to the third category. Their industries and daily life hardly have many channels to receive new information.
When these three types of people start to pay attention, it is enough to show that the heat has spread to all aspects of society, and the "money-making effect" of investment products has become an "iron-like" fact. At this time, no matter how ridiculous the new thing is, even if I have never heard of this new thing before, these are all unimportant. Just based on the fact that "it will definitely make money", the last group of people will rush in.
At this time, the top of the market is not far away.
What I want to emphasize here is that it is not to say that every time the climax of the digital currency bull market, all these three types of people will come in (in fact, this is impossible), or only these three types of people will come in, but that we must Pay special attention to those in society who are least impressed.
When they all start to pay attention to this market and enter this market, the last bit of heat left in the market will be squeezed out, and the bull market is almost close to the craziest.
One more thing to add is that these experiences are just some of the phenomena I have seen in the past bull markets of the stock market and digital currency, and are for your reference only.
