What stage is the bull market in?

Recently, Babbitt published an article "8 big data indicators tell you that it is not the apex of the bull market yet", which lists the relevant data of Bitcoin and Ethereum in 8 aspects. These data show that the current status of the two digital currency kings is still far behind when they were at the apex of the bull market in 2017 and 2018, so there is room for them to continue to rise in the future.

As long as Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in the market, other value coins will not fall, so I still have to be optimistic about the value currency chips in my hand, and don't rush to sell them.

Today I would like to share with you some of the views in this article.

1. Number of new addresses

The above two figures show the number of new addresses for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which reflect the number of new currency holders. The blue line is the number of newly added addresses. According to the data, the newly added addresses of Bitcoin have not yet exceeded the high levels of 2017 and 2018, while Ethereum has repeatedly broken through the high levels of the year. This is most likely due to DeFi. However, there are still a small number of people participating in DeFi, so I don't think there will be too many new users who actually enter the market to buy Ethereum.

2. On-chain transaction fees

The blue line in the figure above reflects the on-chain transaction fees of Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is obvious that the on-chain transaction fees of Bitcoin are far from the peak of the year, while the on-chain transaction fees of Ethereum are much higher. surpassed the peak of the year. This situation should be due to the fact that DeFi on Ethereum has pushed up on-chain transactions, and with the further rise in the price of Ethereum, the on-chain transaction fees on Ethereum will continue to rise.

Therefore, we may use Bitcoin to measure it to better explain the real situation:At present, retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale, at least they have not yet poured into Bitcoin on a large scale.

3. The open interest of the exchange

I think that's a pretty good indicator of the madness in the market. The red line in the figure is the amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum held by the exchange, and the black line is the price trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Interestingly, although the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have been rising all the way, the positions of these two coins on the exchange have been decreasing all the way, which shows that most of the currency holders did not sell because of the rising prices.

However, we often hear that many investors in the circle report that they did not hold the Bitcoin and Ethereum in their hands and threw them away early. How can this be explained? I think that although many retail investors have thrown away their chips, more people have caught these chips, and most of the holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum have not shipped yet.

In addition to the above three data, the article also lists data such as "exchange whale ratio", "miner smash index", "Bitcoin premium index", "USDT total market value", etc.They all show that there is still a certain gap between the current situation and the peak of the bull market that year.

The peak of the last bull market was at the beginning of 2018, and it has been 3 years since then. The overall digital currency market in the past three years must have been growing. In an overall incremental market, the data show that the current situation is not as good as the peak three years ago.Therefore, this market still has certain potential in the future.

In these years, especially last year, Ethereum has benefited from the explosive growth of DeFi, and many data have exceeded the peak value of the year, which makes some data of Ethereum somewhat misleading. Moreover, institutional investors, the biggest promoters of this round of bull market, currently mainly invest and target Bitcoin. Therefore, when looking at these data, I prefer to look at Bitcoin data, because it is purer without the interference of other data.

With the support of institutional investors, a series of Bitcoin data has not yet reached the peak of the year, which not only shows that institutional investors have not yet reached madness, but also shows that retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale.

The market is not crazy yet, so we don't need to be nervous, just continue to hold the chips and watch the battle.