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Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.Hello everyone, I’m Pepe. Let me start by saying that I will be on vacation from next week. I still have a lot of personal affairs this year. I have to go home and move. There should be no update for the seven days of the Spring Festival. Let's see if I can update one or two more articles.
Although the currency circle is 007, 24 hours a day and 7 days a week without interruption, but during the holidays, we should rest and play well. There may be surprises when we come back. Like last year, I remember that the market was in the second half of the 7-day long holiday. It has been rising, making many friends who choose to wait and see temporarily due to "hard spring" feel green.
There is also this joke that appears every year. I think we have dropped from 41,000 to the lowest 28,000 this time. There is almost a 32% correction, and it is almost 20 days before the holiday, and we are already close to the nearest high point. After fluctuating for a month, the pancake touched the $40,000 mark again yesterday.
So does it mean that the so-called "spring disaster" has passed? So you can think about it.Now there are two directions at this position, one is failure to hit a new high, and it returns to the previous shock or downward, similar to the period from 2017 to early 2018:It seems that no matter whether it is a large cycle or a small cycle, it usually rebounds to a place close to the historical high after the end (occasionally it may reach a new high), but it is difficult to continue. Psychologically speaking, there will be many short-term profit-seekers here The position of buying food and drinks that escape and enter the market due to the inertia of the bull market.Is this the case? I think no one can really say. What we observe will always have a lag. From experience, one is to see if it can reach a new high, and the other is some support from the "consensus" of traders Whether it can be maintained, such as the 21-day moving average mentioned earlier:But at present, I am leaning towards the possibility of another direction. The big cake can still play a role in the future. After all, the new year and new hope are still the year of the ox. Many times before, our words were rational, and we can still release more optimism. ,Ha ha.Just kidding, why do you say that:One is on indicators. I posted an article "When will we "escape from the top"" before, and that article happened to be published on January 7, when it was the hottest time. One of the conclusions of that article is that at least compared to 2017 As far as the apex is concerned, we still have a long way to go in terms of indicators. Of course, even if the indicators can truly reflect the problem, we have not really "reached the top" now, and that does not mean that the next few months will definitely rise.
Those who are interested can observe several indicators in the content of the next article:When do we "escape the top"I saw another interesting indicator today, which shows the change data of the number of holders’ addresses:(This website was founded by a senior Bitcoin tycoon, and there are many data indicators on it, if you are interested, you can look it up)The above picture is called the Hodl-waves indicator. It may not be very clear. You can copy the above link to open it and compare it. The wavy lines in the picture mean that all currency holding addresses are divided according to the time interval from the latest move to the current time. The resulting quantity fluctuation curve (note: it only counts active addresses, that is, addresses with at least one transfer-out record).The time is marked at the bottom of the graph, ranging from 1 day, 1 week, 1 month to 5 years, 7 years. On the graph, the upper curve represents the number of addresses that have not moved for a longer time, and the lower the curve is, the shorter it is .Looking at the recent situation, the number of short-term active addresses is increasing, corresponding to the decrease in the number of addresses that have held positions for 2-3 years, which may indicate that there is a certain degree of change of hands in the current market chips.Changing hands is not necessarily a bad thing. You can compare it with the peak of 17 years. At the black vertical line in the above picture, the long-term chip change happened before the top, and in that cycle, the price collapse eventually turned into a long-term chip. Growth and short-term decline in on-chain activity.I also saw an article by Lianwen today. It should be about a small domestic capital earning a thousand times on Aave. I will put the link here:This Liuyi capital was sold between aave400-500U. No matter what the story is, whether they have the right vision or luck, the side also reflects the current decline. It may not be a bubble collapse or a problem with the fundamentals, it may be more There is an element of this take profit exit.And the current degree of profit withdrawal is limited, at least whether it is a big pie or a lot of copycats, such as aave, which recently collapsed for nearly 100 dollars, and is still near the daily track, and is in a strong area.Second, in the circle, especially the wave of defi has also released a lot of liquidity, and a lot of hot money has been generated "out of thin air". You can see a picture sent to me by an old man today:epilogue
It is a growth situation of the stable currency DAI in the past two years. Dai is generated by mortgaging eth. When the price of eth is higher, it means that more dai can be generated and flooded into the market. This is why the defi world can grow so hot and fast One factor lies, and there is no sign of any trend reversal for the time being.I used to be worried that this kind of growth would collapse, but it still seems to be sustainable, and I don’t know if there will be a long-term growth here, like last August, after a period of recovery, it can hit a new high.
