Institutions buy 500 million GBTC, CME will launch ETH futures
In the past two days, it can be said that the market has been refreshed. After Bitcoin broke through 34,000 US dollars yesterday, it broke through 36,000 US dollars again today. Ethereum also did not stop much after breaking through 1,400 US dollars. $1,500, the highest price reached around $1,570 today, all the way unimpeded.
Then we can see the good news that keeps coming out of the market, and the bad news before may be announced deliberately by someone, but when it comes to the bull market, everything is spring, and of course it may be the source of the news deliberately Showing weakness and hitting the market, there is such an interesting thing in the current market.
On January 21, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Wall Street giant Guggenheim Partners (Guggenheim Partners), said in a recent interview that Bitcoin may pull back all the way to $20,000. He believes that Bitcoin will not hit a new all-time high this year, which means that $42,000 is a long-term high.
On January 28, according to Bloomberg News, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Wall Street giant Guggenheim Partners (Guggenheim Partners), said that the investor base of Bitcoin is currently not enough to make its price rise to the expected valuation, and the current institutional investment The latter is not enough to sustain the price of Bitcoin above $30,000, but in the long run, Bitcoin is still a viable asset class.
Then on February 1, Bloqport tweeted that the document submitted by Guggenheim Partners to the SEC for the "purchase of US$500 million in GBTC" came into effect. Filed with the SEC on March 27.
Last night, a large number of Bitcoins from Coinbase recently flowed out, and 14,892 BTCs were transferred to anonymous wallet addresses, which means that nearly 500 million US dollars flowed into cold wallet addresses. The massive outflows certainly attracted a lot of attention, especially as the price of BTC appeared to be stuck below $35,000 for nearly three weeks. Many believe the bitcoins belong to Guggenheim Partners, which recently filed with the U.S. SEC to purchase bitcoins through Grayscale’s GBTC trust fund.
Today, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Wall Street giant Guggenheim Partners, said: "Bitcoin may eventually climb to $600,000, and there is still a lot of room to rise. We have been watching Bitcoin for nearly a decade." , but the current market size is not large enough to justify institutional money.”
The CEO of this institution, when the market was in a downturn some time ago, was very pessimistic about the market, and it would fall back to 20,000 US dollars, but it would not be able to rise to 30,000 US dollars, and then he secretly bought 500 million US dollars in bitcoin There is still a lot of room for growth, and there is a chance to break through 600,000 US dollars. This is very similar to ordinary investors. When they want to buy, they depreciate and buy directly when the price is low. It is very realistic to buy cheap chips, and then wait until you have finished buying, and then start to wave the flag.
Of course, this has a lot to do with media reports, and of course it does not specifically refer to the Guggenheim incident. It is possible that the interviewee only accepted one interview from the beginning to the end, and then the media will publish the interviewee's words separately, pessimistic remarks when the market is low, and positive remarks when the market is high, mainly for traffic, This happens all the time.
Going back to the news of ETH, there are actually many benefits of ETH. Whether it is DeFi or the current institutional optimism on it, we have analyzed it before, and the increase in ETH trust held by Grayscale last night clearly expresses the institution’s interest in ETH. Positive emotions, there is another point that cannot be ignored in the near future.
The world's largest derivatives exchange Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced that it will launch Ethereum futures on February 8, 2021. Some news about this is optimistic, while others are pessimistic about it.
The reason for the optimism is simple. After all, CME is the world's mainstream exchange, which can increase the activity of ETH transactions and bring more capital attention to the ETH market. This is also the most direct benefit. A more pessimistic view is to think of the Bitcoin futures in 2017. It can be seen that there is a similarity between CME’s launch of Bitcoin futures and CME futures, that is, they are both launched in a bull market.
If it is launched in a bull market, the biggest advantage is that there will be no shortage of participating investors, directly filling up the flow. After the launch of Bitcoin futures in 2017, the market began to plunge, starting a bear market that lasted for two years, and the current launch of ETH futures at a time when it is also a bull market means that it will have the same ending.
Regarding this point, today is different from the past, and the market environment is completely different. At that time, the launch of Bitcoin futures was only one of the factors. The card effect led to an avalanche of all currencies, and when the market was pushed up in 2020, the chaos of the altcoin dance basically did not happen. Even DeFi will digest it for a period of time after it explodes, and it will not last forever. Endless rise.
No matter how bad it is, even if the trading volume of ETH futures increases, it is still quite difficult to affect the bitcoin spot, and the volume is not at the same level. What's more, the development of ETH futures on other digital currency exchanges has been quite large in the past two years. Mature, even CME, has relatively limited influence on ETH futures. The first step is to let more investors understand ETH first, and then talk about influence after the volume of ETH increases.
Going back to the market, the market opened above $35,000 today, and then it went up all the way. The highest price reached above $36,800, which is close to $37,000. It is currently in a correction and is running around $36,000.
The main idea of most people in the current market is, according to this rhythm, is there any chance for the market to break through a new high this week?
Looking at the weekly line, the market once reached above $38,500 last week. If you look at the BOLL, it just touched the upper track of Boll, and then began to fall back. This week, without a big correction, it went straight up. And it has not touched the upper track of Boll. If it goes higher, the position of the upper track is just at 40,000 US dollars, which is a double pressure level for the market.
For the market, the Boll track is not a hard condition, the real hard condition is the market atmosphere. For example, some time ago, it has been running above the Boll track, mainly because the atmosphere was relatively strong at that time, but it seems that it is actually still there. It is recovering, so be cautious. There is about a 30% probability of hitting $40,000 this week, and only a 20% probability of setting a new record high. This is only a subjective judgment, and there is no objective quantitative standard.
Looking at the 4-hour line, it can be clearly seen that the current market has risen a level compared to the previous period. Of course, except for the occasional situation in the middle, it is currently possible to see whether it can continue to operate above 35,000 US dollars. For example, the current or For the pullback at night, $35,000 must be able to support it.
As for continuing to push higher, $38,000 is the first pressure level to pay attention to. During the period from January 15th to January 20th, there were two impacts on $38,000 and they failed to stand firm. It can be seen that this position still has a certain degree of pressure. Suppression, so the next step to raise this position is a more important pressure position.
ETH: broke through $1,400 yesterday, set a new record high, and broke through $1,500 again. The increase of more than 10% in a day made ETH break through many key pressure levels. What is rare is that it has not yet fallen after this surge. The two situations are very different. Of course, today’s market has not finished yet, and it depends on how the next two days will go. I hope this time there will be a good result, but even if it falls back, don’t worry too much. The recent performance of ETH has already improved. The saying "you can always trust ETH" is confirmed.
The intraday callback support level focuses on $1,450, and the upper pressure level first looks at $1,600.
LTC: The increase of more than 7% yesterday is good enough, but it is slightly inferior under the outbreak of ETH, but today it deserves everyone's attention. It has broken through $150, and the intraday support is focused on $145 and the pressure is placed at $160.
Other mainstream currencies are also relatively average. ETH and LTC are the currencies we have been strongly promoting. In fact, these two currencies have not let us down. We also reminded everyone several times when they fell back that they can hoard coins in batches. Then often when the market rises, many people will ask us if we can enter the market now. Our answer is of course we can, but the risks are quite different from when we actively recommend them. This also needs to be grasped by ourselves.
Platform currency: The performance of platform currency has been very good recently. BNB has broken through $50 and is currently in a small correction. Under normal circumstances, BNB’s trend is most similar to mainstream currencies, but platform currency will explode in due course when it is favorable.
It is a pity that HT has not been recommended to everyone in the near future. Currently, the performance of Huobi ecological HECO is very good, and it seems to have become the leading public chain in the exchange. Many positive developments in the middle have been suppressed. As long as HT starts to fall later, it can still be used. Pay attention and enter the market at the right time.
Before and after OKT came out, we also suggested that everyone should not hoard OKB for the time being. It turned out that it was greatly affected by OKT. It has been suppressed for a while, and it was better during this period. If you still want to hoard OKB, you might as well pay attention to OKT, at least When the rise resumes in the future, there is a high probability that the rise of OKT will be greater than that of OKB.
