1.26 Mainstream currencies collectively plunged and fell, Bitcoin and Ethereum operation suggestions

In the middle and late this month, the spot price of Bitcoin fluctuated slightly in the range of 32,000 US dollars. Due to the gradual downward adjustment of the spot price of Bitcoin in the past, investors bought put options to seek price protection, and the medium- and short-term implied volatility surface of Bitcoin options has no obvious right-skewed trend. Regardless of the premium caliber or the contract caliber, the trading volume of the options market has declined significantly. Weak volatility has become the main feature of the current market. Compared with the sluggish price performance of Bitcoin, Ethereum has maintained a good spot price performance. Skewness indicators suggest that the market appears to be more optimistic about Ethereum’s future performance.

Bitcoin (BTC): Taking an "inverted hammer line" on the daily line indicates that the upper resistance is strong, especially after the currency price breaks down, it will be a slow process to recover the decline. Bitcoin as a whole is still running in a downward channel, BOLL is in a flat state, and the dead cross of the moving average MA5/MA10 suppresses its upward movement in the area of ​​32200/33800 US dollars respectively, while the lower part further explores after falling below the switching point of the moving average support resistance, the lower part Focus on the support of the $31,000/30,000 mark. The short-term KDJ technical indicators are moderately downward, and the downward momentum of MACD in the attached figure is heavy. It is expected that Bitcoin will maintain a weak adjustment.

In the four hours, it was seen that Bitcoin rose and fell back. After falling below the BOLL mid-rail support, the risk of falling back increased. BOLL is in a flat state, and the moving average MA5 hooks down and crosses MA10 to suppress its upward movement. In the short term, focus on the resistance of BOLL's middle track at $32,500, and below, focus on the support of BOLL's lower track at $30,950. The short-term KDJ technical indicators are moderately downward, and the downward momentum of the attached MACD is heavy. It is expected that Bitcoin will maintain a volatile downward trend.

To sum up: Bitcoin's rebound is under pressure, making its trend into a weak adjustment again. Compared with the current situation, this momentum will continue to drop, and the next integer mark of 30,000 US dollars is still our focus. Although the $30,000 mark is in jeopardy, as long as it does not break through, there is still a glimmer of hope for the bulls. If it breaks down, then we will change our thinking in time and look at the market for the second time. However, Mr. Tan is optimistic about the support of this position. As far as the current trend is concerned, the Asian-European market has continued to fall. If it stabilizes after the European market, there will be a possibility of counterattack. Therefore, the teacher’s suggestion for its operation is to sell high and sell low. If you are uncertain about the interpretation of technical market and news, or you have a set list, you can discuss it with Mr. Tan. Subscribe to the official account; Currency Circle Retail Alliance.

Short-term upper resistance level: 32500/33000 Short-term lower support level: 31000/30000

Suggestions for Bitcoin operation: fall back around 30600, stop loss at 29800, target 31500;

Today, we see that the option trading volume of Ethereum has also declined to a certain extent. However, combined with the performance of the spot price of Ethereum, it can be judged that the trading volume of Ethereum options will recover soon. Although Ethereum and Bitcoin have shown a good correlation in the past. But at the moment, they show relatively independent trends on the implied volatility surface. In the implied volatility surface of the same period, the skewness of Ethereum is more positive than that of Bitcoin. Compared with Bitcoin, the market seems to have more confidence in the price of Ethereum.

Although the implied volatility of Ethereum is at a high level, in a weakly volatile market environment, the implied volatility of Ethereum is likely to fall back. Due to the obvious upward trend of the spot price of Ethereum, compared with Bitcoin, investors need to pay more attention to the changes in the short-term implied volatility of Ethereum. By observing the implied volatility of Ethereum at-the-money options, it can be found that in the past week, there has been a certain correction in the implied volatility level of Ethereum. At the same time, its level of skewness has started to decline compared to the first two weeks of the year. Surprisingly, against the background of declining volatility, the spot price of Ethereum keeps hitting new highs, which shows that the spot price of Ethereum has risen very steadily.

Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum hit a new high the next day (line 1474.99), and plunged to (line 1291.58) in the early morning under pressure. Today, the Asian market rebounded, but the strength was weak, and the European market fell again to test the 1300 mark. The big rise and fall is the normal trend of Ethereum. The only constant is its bullish trend. It is normal for two consecutive days of big rise to have a callback. Don’t be frightened by the short-term big drop. The callback is also a good thing. Teacher Tan thinks The short-term callback is only for a better rise in the later period. After all, the technical aspect also needs to be adjusted and repaired. Our medium-term target of 1,500 US dollars remains unchanged.

Looking at the daily line, the next day, Ethereum rushed higher and fell back to the negative. Today, it continues to decline, but the overall trend is still maintained in the upward channel. BOLL is in a flat state. Ethereum has fallen from its high level and is under test. The moving average MA5/MA10 is still crossing the golden cross to give it support. In the short term, focus on the support around $1280, and the resistance around $1350 on the top. The short-cycle KDJ technical indicators are running moderately, and the downward momentum of the attached MACD is heavy. It is expected that Ethereum will maintain a high level of adjustment. In the short term, Ethereum tested the $1,300 mark for the third time. Although it broke, it did not actually break through. After all, the overnight low was still at $1,291.58. Don't blindly chase the rise and kill the fall, because the overall trend is still in the process of adjusting at a high level. For spot traders, every pullback is an opportunity for you to hoard coins or cover your positions.

Short-term upper resistance level: 1350/1380 Short-term lower support level: 1300/1280

Suggestions for the operation of Ethereum: It is much shorter to fall back around 1300, stop loss at 1293, and target 1315;