Editor's Note: This article comes from
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.Hello everyone, I'm Pepe. The current market has reached a stage where you don't need to analyze it, or even look at it. On the contrary, the yield will be better. I originally wanted to postpone it for another period, but at night we saw 1 The Ethereum at the beginning of Qian 4, let’s record it.The picture above is the monthly chart taken in the afternoon, but it’s okay. After three years, we have returned to the original peak, and this time it looks more "porcelain".
Looking at the overseas analysis of the rise of eth, it is mainly believed that defi is still growing, especially in terms of data, the value of fiat currency corresponding to the assets locked on the main platform of defi has exceeded 25 billion US dollars:Synchronized with the increase of ether, a new record was set!
However, I am still a little skeptical about this. The reason why the Total Value Locked (TVL, total locked value) is rising at this stage is more due to the rise in the price of btc and eth than the amount of locked positions.
Looking at the locked-up volume of eth, it has gradually declined in the past three months:(Of course, I am a little confused here. Recently, there is another news that the amount of eth in various exchanges is also declining. Where did all the eth go? Is it really being hoarded by big whales and small scattered?)In the short term, I personally feel that there may be more market fomo factors, especially in the current market atmosphere. On the one hand, there are overseas bigwigs "calling for orders", and the number of positions they need to increase at this level may not be small:In addition, the amount of transfers on the chain has reached the same level as the peak in 2017:This also reflects the improvement of the market from another level, and the number of traders and trading volume is increasing.According to BIT’s previous script and bull market thinking, the probability of breaking through a new high and then going up in the short term is still relatively high, and the K line is in a state of shock compared to the big pie, and there is still a distance from the 41950U high on January 8. , the ether is a stronger upward continuation state. It should be said that in the next paragraph, if the big pie can maintain the shock area, I think it is not unimaginable to see the 2000U and 2500U mentioned by many bloggers and analysts.In terms of risks, one is that on a monthly basis, eth has risen by more than 80% this month. It has only been 20 days, and there are still relatively many short-term profits; the other is the gas problem mentioned earlier, and the market value will double again. I think some people in the market are starting to think about 10,000 dollars, surpassing Bitcoin, etc. If it can be realized immediately, I am afraid that ether will really be unusable, and it will be an obstacle to market activities, defi ecology and popularity, so I will be biased I feel that the price increase is more on the short-term level.However, we can be more optimistic about the long-term fundamentals. First, as long as Ethereum maintains the current network effect, even if some basic problems are not resolved, there may not be a comparable platform for quite a long time. Its moat lies here whales, capital and resources.The second is that it seems that DeFi is still the continuation of the theme in 2021. It is possible that various dex and mortgage mining will appear in the future ecology, just like the emergence of various ICO projects in 2018, and the emergence of each small project also means With the demand for eth lock-up.Then there are the benefits of futures, eth2.0, and eip1559, so I won’t say too much here.The above are some of the situation about Ethereum today, and finally about this bull market, let me say a few more points:
