Looking at the growth of funds in the currency circle this year from the perspective of rising prices, ETH has broken through a record high |
We have been referring to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s release of water on the Bitcoin market before, but what we have mentioned before has always been the most intuitive level, that is, those institutions in the United States put the dollars that benefited from the release of water into the Bitcoin market, but in fact there is still a A more roundabout way to enter the currency circle, and it is a domestic currency circle.
A few days ago, the central bank stated at the press conference that as my country's economy continues to recover steadily and domestic consumer demand is gradually recovering, we believe that the core CPI is expected to continue to rise in the future. Overall, my country's price level is likely to maintain a moderate rise in 2021. Affected by the base of the same period last year, it is expected that the annual CPI increase will show a trend of first rising and then stabilizing.
You can clearly feel the price increase this year. Originally, it was only pork. Friends who have been to the vegetable market may know better. Many vegetables, green onions, shallots and peppers that are related to the basic livelihood of the people are all rising. Normal, but this is not an ordinary price increase, but a passive price increase, which we also call "imported inflation".
We still have to go back to the Federal Reserve to release water. In 2020, the United States will print about one-fifth of the entire currency issuance in a year. How to spend the money, except for some of the US stocks that we call investing in the Bitcoin market, more is still used. Change things, change things around the world, which led to global inflation, commodities, stock markets, and industrial products all began to rise, and the country with the best control of the epidemic is our country, not only the United States, but also the money printed by other countries. We import because we are also currently the country with the largest production capacity in the world.
But when we export more and import less, we have more money in our hands, mainly in the U.S. dollar, which increased by nearly 1 trillion U.S. dollars last year. So what to do, spend it, and spend money outside, this is the same logic as the dollar controls the world.
In general, how do we spend money externally? Imports, buying U.S. debt, and foreign investment, but imports have already been mentioned, which is caused by insufficient imports. As for buying U.S. debt and foreign investment, U.S. debt can be used as foreign exchange reserves, but in recent years, the country has been selling U.S. debt On the other hand, in the case of foreign investment in 2020, financial investment will keep up with the inflation of others, and non-financial investment will be more difficult to implement due to the impact of the epidemic.
So it can only be digested internally.
But if the internal digestion is not good, the extra 10,000 US dollars will easily cause national inflation, and only a few channels can be specified to guide it, but it is hard to die. After the epidemic last year, the people were once cautious in consumption. In general, the saving mentality is greater than the consumption mentality, so we can only guide a few points that must be consumed, and the investment market.
In terms of consumption, if you don't go out to eat, go to the movies, or go out to buy things, then you have to buy vegetables at home, so the prices of various vegetables that everyone can see with the naked eye have risen.
In terms of investment, there are mainly three markets, one is the stock market, the other is the real estate market, and the third is the cryptocurrency market.
In terms of the stock market, what can be pulled has already been pulled to the top. For example, Moutai, investors are not stupid. There are too many low-quality stocks with no value in the market that will not be considered.
Regarding the real estate market, the country has basically been controlling housing prices in the past two years. If most of the funds flow into the real estate market, the efforts made in the past two years will be in vain. Therefore, in 2020, you can see that major cities are introducing With the price limit policy, there are not many places where the housing market has risen. For example, Shenzhen and some cities have been left as diversion outlets. It can be seen that the housing market in Shenzhen is still booming this year.
In terms of the cryptocurrency market, it is more intuitive. Needless to say, Bitcoin spot has been exchanged from the primary market for US dollars by Wall Street institutions, mainly in terms of futures contracts.
At present, the three major exchanges in the world in terms of contracts are Binance, Huobi and OKEX. There was originally BitMEX, but BitMEX’s share has plummeted since the accident in October. Since OKEX resumed withdrawals in November, it has grown relatively fast. , everyone knows that the "origin" of these three major exchanges is domestic, and naturally they mainly deal with domestic users. Although Binance has always claimed that the main users are not in China, this kind of statement is probably only for regulatory purposes.
The trading volume in December 2020 was more than 5 times that of January 2020. Among the three major exchanges, Binance made the largest contribution to Bitcoin perpetual contracts, and HUObi has the fastest growth rate, and now occupies 22% of the market Share, these are the top two, and the third is ByBit, which is mainly foreign users, and the fourth is OKEX, which is still domestic users. The most famous foreign exchange is Coinbase, which mainly involves spot without involving futures.
Basically, it can be assumed by default that the main participants of the three major domestic exchanges are Chinese people, and such a large increase in contracts all indicates that domestic investors are investing more in them. This is only for Bitcoin. The mainstream coins and altcoins that are most involved in the group have not yet been counted, and it is expected to be quite an astonishing number.
Although the cryptocurrency market is not the mainstream of the domestic investment market, it will be the fastest and most convenient channel for ordinary people to come in with idle funds. There are only a few investment channels in China. Banks can’t run out of inflation, and real estate speculation. Now the high-pressure policy and liquidity are very weak. For futures speculation, the effective domestic futures account is roughly 1% of the stock market. Buying funds, the rate of return Stock trading is the most probable, but the long-term downturn in the stock market can easily dissuade investors. Once they come into contact with cryptocurrency investors, they may not be able to return to the stock market.
Moreover, the performance of Bitcoin this year, several media that are mainly concerned by domestic stockholders or investors have successively forwarded the news of the skyrocketing price of Bitcoin. It is obvious that the popularity rate has increased. According to the central bank, domestic prices will increase moderately in 2021, which means that imported inflation is being digested, and this part of funds will also flow into the cryptocurrency market in the same proportion.
Going back to the influential news in the market today, Grayscale not only bought Bitcoin last night, but the speech of the founder of Grayscale made it seem that he would continue to buy it, and he drew a big pie for the market.
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, launched a survey on Twitter: "Which of these companies do you think will have fund assets of 100 billion U.S. dollars?" The results show that 47.4% of them voted that Grayscale's assets will reach 100 billion U.S. dollars. Eric Balchunas also said that Grayscale needs the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to continue to deny the Bitcoin ETF, and if the SEC allows GBTC to be converted into an ETF while the ETF is approved, they may be liquidated. Grayscale founder and former CEO Barry Silbert responded on Twitter: "Greyscale accepts the challenge."
At present, the total fund holdings of Grayscale are 28 billion US dollars, and there is still 72 billion US dollars of buying and growth space from 1,000 US dollars. In addition to Grayscale, some traditional financial institutions also have the opportunity to work towards this goal.
DBS Bank, Singapore's largest commercial bank, has plans to start offering bitcoin trading services. Fidelity, the largest asset management company in the United States, has begun to provide custody services for Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley holds Bitcoin indirectly by buying 10% of MicroStrategy's stock. MicroStrategy is one of the companies with the largest number of Bitcoins in the world. So Morgan Stanley indirectly holds a large amount of Bitcoin. MassMutual insurance company, which has been in business for more than 150 years, has also begun to buy bitcoin.
In addition, the cake of the fund trust is really too big, and Huidu will always attract the jealousy of other institutions if he eats a lot by himself. As we have said before, Osprey Funds, a digital asset subsidiary of REX Shares, announced that it will be present "Osprey Bitcoin Trust (OBTC)" was launched in the foreign exchange market, charging a management fee of 0.49%, and Fidelity Digital Assets will provide custody services. The OBTC fee is only about a quarter of that of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). This is the first challenger of Grayscale, and I believe it will not be the last challenger.
Also, CoinShares, an investment firm focused on digital assets, is launching a Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP), which will be listed on the Swiss stock exchange SIX Swiss Exchange under the symbol "BITC" on January 19. BITC will be backed in kind, which means that the ETP will hold bitcoins, and each unit of the product will be backed by 0.001 bitcoins.
This also means that more and more traditional financial institutions are beginning to share this cake, but I don’t know if the strength of these competitors can cause Grayscale to step up and buy more encrypted digital currency more actively.
In addition to competition from traditional financial institutions, Grayscale may also face official competition.
Over the past few years, there has been a very strong demand for a Bitcoin ETF in the market. Issuers have been applying for the establishment of Bitcoin ETFs (see the figure below). But such applications have been rejected by the SEC. The main reason given by the SEC recently is that the issuer of the ETF cannot guarantee that the price of Bitcoin will not be manipulated by the market, and that Bitcoin currently does not have a suitable custody mechanism. Given the current enthusiasm for Bitcoin in the market, ETFs based on Bitcoin will definitely be welcomed by the market. The issuer of Bitcoin ETF will get very good business income.
At present, Gary Gensler, who is very likely to be the new chairman of the SEC, may greatly promote the approval of the Bitcoin ETF after he takes office. The company will have a very big impact. Therefore, what Grayscale should do at this time is to expand the trust scale as soon as possible, actively promote Bitcoin, and let everyone come to Grayscale to buy Bitcoin Fund Trust first, otherwise once the ETF is really launched , then the cost of competing for customers will be much greater, and the effect will be much less than before.
In addition, according to DeBank data, the issuance of the stablecoin USDC has exceeded 5 billion US dollars, and the current report is 5.13 billion US dollars, a record high. In addition, the number of USDC transfers within 24 hours reached 47,895, the transfer amount in 24 hours reached 2,017,610,111 US dollars, and the number of active addresses in 24 hours was 22,341. Stablecoins are fiat currencies used in the blockchain network. They are usually riveted with the price of the fiat currency, audited by a third party, and have real US dollars as reserves or complex algorithms to guarantee their prices. USDC is a compliant USD stablecoin jointly issued by Circle and Coinbase.
Going back to the market, affected by the increase in Grayscale’s holdings last night, it started to rise above 37,000 US dollars at the opening of the market today, but then it was the familiar diving market. After pulling back to around 36,000 US dollars, it rose again. It has already broken through intraday highs.
I don’t know if everyone is a little familiar with today’s market. In fact, it is exactly the same as yesterday’s trend, but there is a slight difference in time, so the current focus is only on whether there will be a temporary dive at night.
Everyone didn’t expect Grayscale to buy coins last night, because they all thought it was a holiday for the US stock market, so Grayscale would not go to work, and that’s why there was a dive in the evening, but after Grayscale began to increase its holdings, the market Rapid changes have taken place, but today the market has the expectation of grayscale buying coins. From the current point of view, there may be a correction in the middle, but the magnitude of the correction will not be as large as yesterday, and the bulls may eventually gain the upper hand.
From a technical point of view, the market has changed from the previous single-line downward to an upward channel, and it can be seen that the volatility has gradually decreased. Generally speaking, when the slope of the upward channel does not change, but the volatility becomes smaller, it means that there is a callback. Time is also starting to shrink, which also means that the bulls may be more determined.
mainstream currency
mainstream currency
Affected by Grayscale’s buying of coins, the performance of mainstream coins has been active today. Yesterday, the mainstream coins BCH and LTC rose the most, and both closed up more than 6%. Since the purchase of BCH exceeds 10,000 pieces, investors are interested in Its sentiment will be more intense, and today's increase was once close to 5%. It is conceivable that a large part of the current rise and fall of mainstream currencies comes from whether Grayscale buys or not.
ETH：Today’s protagonist is destined to be ETH. As of now, the daily increase of nearly 10% has hit a new high in the past two years, and it has directly broken through the historical high at night. Will the next position be at 2,000 US dollars? We have said before that Ethereum continues to be positive. Currently, the daily trading volume of Ethereum has reached 12.3 billion US dollars, while the daily trading volume of Bitcoin is only 9.3 billion US dollars, a difference of 3 billion US dollars. Notably, Ethereum’s daily transaction volume has been higher than Bitcoin’s since the end of June.
It seems that the benefits we mentioned yesterday seem to be gradually being realized, and Grayscale has not yet started buying coins. If Grayscale starts buying ETH in the future, it may further promote the market, so we can look forward to it.
LTC：Today's highest increase is almost 10%, breaking through 160 US dollars, plus yesterday's increase of 6%, the increase in these two days is quite impressive, and the two-day increase is about the same as ETH. If the highest increase is counted, it is considered a mainstream currency. This kind of thriving, so we have been evaluating the explosive power of LTC in the early stage is quite strong among the mainstream currencies. Don’t look at the deceptiveness that is so strong that it is half-dead. Further, it squeezed out LINK again and returned to the seventh place in market capitalization.
The main stimulus for LTC's rise is grayscale's purchase of coins, so you can look forward to it later. Like today's rise, there is roughly market expectation that Grayscale will buy LTC at night. Once the number of purchases in the later period reaches tens of thousands or even tens of thousands, LTC There will be further outbreaks.
BCH：The overall rally is only slightly inferior to that of LTC and BTC. According to the CEO of Grayscale a few days ago, the investors who favored ETH and BCH in the past year were very unexpected. It is expected to continue this year. We will pay attention to whether we can stand at 540 in the next few days US dollars, if you stand on it, you can look forward to 600 US dollars.
BSV：At present, it is a weak version of BCH, still struggling with $200. I originally thought that after the previous ups and downs, the market fluctuations would change, but it seems to be fine now, so let’s observe again.
XRP：Stimulated by Ripple CEO’s statement today that he is ready to cooperate with the SEC and the government on encryption technology innovation and the rise of mainstream currencies, today’s highest increase has reached 15%, but then a rapid correction of 10%, the market volatility began to increase, or Be cautious, at least you have to stand firm at $0.3.
EOS：platform currency
platform currency
Recently, platform currencies have their own advantages and disadvantages.
Due to the release of the 2020 annual report of BNB, both the spot and the contract rank first, and the rise of BNB increases all boats.
OKB is the launch of OKCHAI, but with the release of OKT, the status of OKB’s platform has also been challenged, so it is full of uncertainties.
HT broke through a record high today, that is, after rising by 8% yesterday, it rose by nearly 10% when it made another effort today. The recent outbreak is also related to DeFi. For example, HECO mining on the Huobi ecological chain will also generate demand for HT. At the same time, the trading volume of the currency continues to break new highs and the expansion of the contract market share has formed the fundamental support for the rise of HT prices.
DeFi
According to data from OKLink, as of 10 o'clock today, the total lock-up volume of DeFi protocols on Ethereum is about 35.36 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.49% month-on-month. Currently, the top three protocols with locked positions are Maker with USD 4.203 billion, WBTC with USD 4.111 billion and Uniswap V2 with USD 3.403 billion.
Let’s take a look at the recent DeFi data, especially for DEX, which can be used as an investment reference.
The current unit price of UNI is 9U, 215 million units have been in circulation, and 785 million units to be unlocked are worth 6.5 billion US dollars with a total value of 8.3 billion US dollars
The current unit price of CRV is 1.45U, 191 million units have been in circulation, and 3.111 billion units to be unlocked are worth 4.6 billion US dollars with a total value of 5 billion US dollars
The current unit price of 1INCH is 1.88U, 96 million units have been in circulation, and 1.403 billion units to be unlocked are worth 2.5 billion US dollars with a total value of 2.7 billion US dollars
The current unit price of BAL is 24U, 10.79 million pieces have been in circulation, and 89 million pieces to be unlocked are worth 1.7 billion U.S. dollars with a total value of 1.9 billion U.S. dollars
The current unit price of sushi is 7.17U, 127 million pieces have been in circulation, and 122 million pieces are waiting to be unlocked, worth 800 million U.S. dollars with a total value of 1.7 billion U.S. dollars
In the last 30 days, UNI accounted for about 40% of DEX trading volume, sushi accounted for about 23% of DEX trading volume, crv accounted for about 11% of DEX trading volume, 1inch accounted for about 8% of DEX trading volume, and bal accounted for about 2% of DEX trading volume.
In addition, today uni founder Hayden Adams, out of a total of 4 billion US dollars of funds, 500 million US dollars of funds have been attributed to the UNI community governance treasury. Hayden Adams asked the community for suggestions on how to use the $500 million in governance funds. In this regard, the suggestions Hayden Adams received included: providing Uniswap users with a second UNI short position, suggesting that Uniswap set up a venture capital company to invest in encryption projects, and suggesting Uniswap has accelerated the development of the second expansion solution, etc. However, Hayden Adams has not indicated his attitude towards the relevant suggestions.
The $500 million community governance fund is naturally helpful to the community’s research and development of UNISWAP, but the current concern is that the $500 million fund also needs to be cashed in through the sale of Uni, which will put a certain amount of selling pressure on the market. At present, it is not known whether it is a one-time distribution or a batch sale. If it is the latter, the pressure will be less.
Polkadot
Polkadot
Polkadot rebounded again after stepping back today. It has not fallen much from the high level, and it does not feel the pressure of funds at present, but it mainly depends on the situation of the second surge. If it does not break the previous high, it is very likely to proceed A wave of big pullbacks, in short, currency holders can take profits in batches.
