ETH sprints to a new high, the violent "DeFi season" is coming?

巴比特

特邀专栏作者

2021-01-19 18:17 (UTC+8)

This article is about 2467 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

Human psychology remains the same, but the assets of speculation have changed.

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Human psychology remains the same, but the assets of speculation have changed.

Editor's Note: This article comes fromBabbitt Information (ID: bitcoin8btc)Editor's Note: This article comes from

Babbitt Information (ID: bitcoin8btc)

Welcome to 2021, things are a little different now.

XRP was judged to be a security, EOS and SEC made a settlement, and the statement that "BCH is the real Bitcoin" has been ignored. Tron stopped operating a few months ago, and no one is discussing what DAG is. acyclic graph)...

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what does that mean?

Token landscape comparison in 2017 and 2021

Speculation on Layer 1 assets is largely non-existent (Polca's DOT is the only exception these days), and in Bankless 2021 predictions, I don't think there will be a new L1 blockchain to grab the market.

what does that mean?

In a bull market, thousands of new market participants will enter the market with capital, and all they want to do is "speculate".

They are starting to feel the FOMO sentiment, BTC has just risen from $5000 to $40000, and ETH is close to its previous all-time high (ATH). These two assets are the most accepted crypto assets in the current ecosystem, and they are relatively the least risky crypto investments.

Greed feeds a bull market, and people pull out their calculators and ask themselves:

"If I put all my money in BTC in March 2020, how much money would I have now?"

The answer is of course "increased by 8 times". Of course, most people may sell all the way, and most people will not copy to the end and so on.

What these new entrants want is something like an 8x increase in BTC, but when they see $40,000 in BTC, they subconsciously think that "another 10x increase in BTC" is unlikely.

So when these new players come into this market with capital, they look at the asset list by market cap list and guess which coin will give them a 10x return.

Cryptocurrency Bull Cycle

First, BTC will skyrocket, then ETH will keep up, and then new funds will flow into the altcoin market. Then, we'll have a -40% wash, and repeat. This is the case with the crypto market.

The general rule of thumb is how people perceive these markets to evolve. Earnings from BTC go to earnings from ETH, and then to altcoins.

And altcoins are assets with low market capitalization, and they are also the assets that are easiest to raise. In the bull market cycle, you can see that many altcoins will have 100 times the income. At this stage, you will find that a large number of people have made a lot of quick money on the paper, and then there will be a big purge, and the leverage and greed will be washed away, and then we start to wait for the price of BTC to rise, which shows that taking more It's okay to take multiple risks.

Binance Vs Uniswap

Binance emerged in 2017 as one of the fastest companies in the world to achieve unicorn status as the exchange quickly catered to retail demand and listed as many crypto assets as possible. Binance has risen rapidly due to serving "speculative needs", and it has become a Schelling point for token listing and liquidity promotion.

A key driver behind its traction is free access (Binance did not require KYC until 2019) and no deposit and withdrawal restrictions.

Binance perfectly captured the speculative demand in 2017, because in 2017, there was a lot of speculation about Layer 1, and people wanted to buy the next Bitcoin or Ethereum killer.

Uniswap

At the time, Bitcoin was in the midst of a civil war, and Ethereum was only a few years old, and not many believed they would succeed in the future.

As a result, the 2017 cycle saw a lot of L1 token speculation, which in turn required a centralized exchange to act as the cross-chain infrastructure.

Because without an intermediary, you cannot exchange BTC for ETH, these blockchains cannot communicate with each other, so you need an intermediary to provide services for you, and Binance is that middleman.

Uniswap is similar to the Binance role in 2017. It does not require KYC, nor does it require email and password to register. As long as you have an Ethereum wallet, you have a Uniswap account.

Uniswap requires no deposit and 20 minute confirmation time, if your money is on Ethereum, you can use Uniswap.

Even better, Uniswap does not centralize asset listing decisions on one team, nor does it require token project parties to pay huge listing fees, all of which are self-service.

In a similar way, Uniswap distributed its Universal Basic Income to more than 200,000 users. Uniswap has become a Schelling point for Ethereum asset transactions. We know that Uniswap has surpassed Coinbase in weekly transaction volume.EthereumCryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are revolutionary, but trading assets on centralized exchanges is not.

L1's speculative era is coming to an end, with Bitcoin and

Ethereum

Much success has been achieved, and now the age of application-layer speculation has arrived, and the winner has yet to be identified.

Even DeFi darling Uniswap faces a serious competitor, Sushiswap, whose token, sushi, has tripled in price over the past 14 days, while the platform’s trading volume is also high. It is impressive, which shows that the speculative potential of the DeFi protocol is huge.

"Altcoins" are out, the era of DeFi tokens is coming
Ryan hates the word "altcoin".
His point is that altcoins are "Bitcoin maximalists" who refuse to acknowledge the differences between different cryptoassets.
"If you continue to look at the crypto world through the lens of 'Bitcoin' and 'altcoins', you will be left behind.
It's 2020, not 2015.
Today there are:
”

1. Encrypted capital assets

2. Encrypted commodities

3. Cryptocurrency

Of course, I agree with that, it's the right way to look at the industry. I also hope that 2021 will bring us a better understanding of these asset classes.

but……

New players entering the cryptoasset space with capital, they don’t understand these distinctions, they don’t understand the situation like the readers of Bankless, they are not crypto natives, they are crypto newbies.

It's inevitable, but the industry will be flooded with new investors, lingering in the dark trying to find their way. These nuances are beyond the reach of most people, and for these reasons we will still be experiencing “alt season,” a term used to describe periods of people chasing 10x gains in low-cap coins.