Market analysis: Dismantling the rise logic of Bitcoin in detail, seeing through the essence of things
Industry news
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Industry news
1. Grayscale BTC Trust increased its holdings by 16,243.55 BCHs, an increase of 4.73%2. Grayscale CEO: Institutional investors are not only interested in Bitcoin, Grayscale’s BCH and ETH have grown significantly compared to 18 months ago, which he did not expect before, and institutions will allocate funds to Assets other than Bitcoin. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary: Institutions Like Bitcoin Bitcoin System Will Not Collapse
Ready to Collaborate with SEC and Biden Administration on Crypto InnovationAsset Manager CoinShares Launches Bitcoin ETP
5. British investment management company Ruffer Investment increased its bitcoin holdings by 90%.
BTC market analysis
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BTC market analysisBefore talking about the market, let’s talk about the news slowly. The founder of Grayscale released a message last night, claiming to be able to control the possible risks of changes in encrypted digital funds in the future. Judging from this news, it shows that the management method of encrypted digital funds may not need to be avoided by reducing positions, but more likely to be controlled through various hedging tools and derivatives.From another perspective, Grayscale’s attitude as a dead long position also shows its recognition that the future of encrypted digital currencies may still fluctuate violently. In addition, more and more well-known people have begun to suggest that central banks use Bitcoin as a reserve currency. Once this pattern or a certain big country starts to implement it, it means that the $100,000 BTC will be just around the corner.
The number is limited and will become less and less in the future, The big holders of BTC will become the targets of the government, which will only intensify the concentration of BTC and the way of competition will become more and more fierce. This is the most likely upside of BTC.All kinds of news flood the market every day, and we still adhere to the logical judgment we have insisted on for many years,
BTC, as digital gold, as a way of currency exchange between the virtual world and the real world, will be the anchor for settlement between the real world and the virtual world,
The attribute of this anchor determines its core value logic that it cannot disappear and its value gradually increases.
The value of the virtual world is still difficult to be recognized by the authorities, because as the aborigines of the 60s and 70s, they are not even the aboriginals of the Internet, so the value judgment of the virtual world is not accurate, and even their understanding is limited. Why? In these aspects, developed economies are faster than developing economies. The core of this comes from the fact that our Internet started after 2000, while other people’s Internet started around the 1980s. Others’ authorities are Internet users and participants. Therefore, other people's thinking in understanding is born and coupled, so the strength of promotion comes from the superposition of the understanding of this thing by the backbone of the whole society in the final analysis.
So we have seen various policies and innovations happening on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean, and we have seen that the top five currencies in the world for exchanging legal tender for Bitcoin are the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Korean won, euro, and Turkish lira. None ranked.
This is a problem with our innovation, not only in the high-tech field, but in the entire innovation field, we have no field of competition. Therefore, domestic blockchain projects like to go abroad to wear a coat and then return to China, so we must be cautious about our innovation and encourage our innovation.They all need time to wait, need an era to save. After seeing the sad reality, let's see how far is my pursuit of wealth and freedom?In long-term technology,
Look at the risk of downside shocks that may be formed on the weekly line, this is the most likely thing to happen in the medium cycle, and now this risk is brewing in the short cycle.The 4H cycle is not broken, and there is still a small band with a 4H cycle that can be operated.
ETH market analysis
The central axis of the 4H cycle stands at 1240, the bottom of BTC is confirmed, the short-term risk is lifted, and ETH may rise to around 1350 before the attack. Hold positions on the sidelines, waiting for profits to rise.
LTC/BCH/EOS market analysis
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BCH and LTC have the same shape and the same point of view, and they can be operated at an opportune time. The short-term is relatively certain, and there are still shocks on the daily line. Friends who like to speculate can bet on small positions, and can continue to hold positions in long-term positions, regardless of short-term shocks.
DOT/KSM market analysis
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1、 DOT/KSM market analysisDOT fell and broke through 16.37 last night, but it did not usher in the sharp drop we expected, nor did it increase in volume. This really surprised me. From a common sense, the breakdown at this position should have a large-scale decline to be cleaner. Then why is this position No?
2、The market chips are very firm, but the probability is low if there are many retail investors, at this time, we should look at the changes in the number of DOT positions. If the number of positions decreases significantly, it means that our second judgment appears. If the number of positions does not decrease significantly, it means that the market consensus is strong enough. This phenomenon exists in BTC and ETH. If a new consensus emerges, DOT is expected to become a mainstream currency with a strong consensus. At this time, it is necessary to use its Compare the number of positions with mainstream currencies to see if such a change has occurred.
High market concentration
, are still gathering in the hands of the main force, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the future, which requires us to judge and analyze.
