The next target of the institution may be ETH, and DeFi is not far from ushering in regulation |
On January 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in 2020, the per capita disposable income of residents will reach 32,189 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.7% over the previous year, and an increase of 2.1% after deducting price factors, which is basically in sync with economic growth. Compared with 2010 , which more than doubled.
Under such a difficult situation in 2020, it is really not easy to increase the per capita disposable income. The data is actually quite good. If we look at the forecast of the "World Economic Outlook Report" released by the International Monetary Fund, my country should be the global leader in 2020. The only major economy to achieve positive growth.
Compared with 2010, this figure is quite interesting. Per capita disposable income has more than doubled. Per capita disposable income should correspond to per capita disposable consumption. The most intuitive impact on consumption is price, which is the most impressive to ordinary residents. It should also be prices, and ten years have passed, and most of the prices of people's basic necessities of life have more than doubled, such as the most common pork, and a little bigger such as housing prices. Of course, the most eye-catching one is our Bit It should have doubled tens of thousands of times from 2020 to 2021, and it can compete for "the highest increase in the second decade of the 21st century".
In ten years, the change is as fast as a blink of an eye. Ten years ago, Alipay and WeChat had not started to pay, but now, the digital renminbi is about to come out. In fact, there is no sense of disobedience if the banknotes are directly connected to the digital renminbi. There is not much difference in the use experience of the bitcoin that comes out to the public. If the digital renminbi comes out at the beginning, it is not necessary to "grab customers" with Alipay and WeChat now.
Of course, there are disadvantages as well as advantages. The disadvantage is that even if the digital renminbi is launched, at most it will be a tripartite rivalry with Alipay and WeChat, and it is difficult to achieve unity like banknotes. Lili, and then more and more users became familiar with electronic payment during the development, and entered the "cashless" society in advance.
The current digital renminbi can be improved on the basis of the original electronic payment, and it also saves a lot of education costs. It can even support "offline" payment functions, such as in the cabin of an airplane, on a fast-moving high-speed rail, in a basement, etc. Digital renminbi can still be used normally in places with no network or weak network. This is a privilege of "digital renminbi", which Alipay, WeChat and other payment methods cannot do.
After several years of development, under the influence of the 2020 epidemic, the digital renminbi has accelerated the pace of a cashless society. It has been tested in Shenzhen and Suzhou successively, and both have achieved great success. It is expected that it will not be long before it lands.
Going back to the currency circle, the protagonist of today's market is not Bitcoin. After all, the US market is closed today, and it is more appropriate to "self-help" in the hope that the external pull may fail at night.
According to the data, last week (January 11 to January 17), the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was 202 million US dollars, a decrease of 42% from the previous week.
The transaction volume has nearly halved in a week. Is this a big problem in the market? No, it’s just that two relatively extreme and opposite situations meet together, and the gap will appear to be particularly large. Note that it is the monthly Bitcoin futures. In the week of January 4th to January 11th, Bitcoin officially broke new highs At that time, the market was in an unprecedented prosperity, and last week Bitcoin was in a state of shock, almost two poles and poles, so there was such a big difference, so don't take it too seriously.
What should really pay attention is the $3.8 billion bitcoin options that will expire on January 29. In the past few weeks, as the price of bitcoin hit a record high, the open interest of bitcoin options reached $84, while On January 29, 45% of the amount expired, or $3.8 billion.
So how much impact do these 3.8 billion expiring options have on the Bitcoin market? In the past month, Bitcoin spot trading volume has averaged $12 billion, and $3.8 billion accounts for about 35% of its trading volume. However, not all options that expire have value, and call options above $46,000 are now being sold Considered worthless, as are puts below $28,000, 68% of calls are now effectively worthless. This means that only 39% of the $3.8 billion in contracts due to expire on January 29 are worth exploring.
Converted to the daily spot trading volume, it is only about 10%. It is a position that can be worried but not worried. It's only short-lived, at most it will have an impact on the same day or a few days, but not for a long time.
The market is still paying more attention to USDT today. Up to now, USDT has not issued currency for 7 days, and Bitcoin has not reached a new high for 9 days. Therefore, some small partners believe that the next time USDT is issued, Bitcoin will open again When it rises or even hits a new high.
In fact, this is a bit reversed. USDT issuance is a lagging indicator. In fact, USDT will be issued when the currency price breaks through and USDT is not enough. When the currency price does not break through, the USDT in the market is enough. There will be no more additional issuances, so those who usually regard the additional issuance of USDT as a factor to promote the rise of currency prices should pay attention.
Speaking of USDT, there are still hidden risks at the moment, especially after the U.S. Department of the Treasury enacts a new stable currency bill. Once all the dust settles and the new government takes office, USDT may face the test of supervision as soon as possible.
Let's pay attention to the fundamentals again, and feel that although the external market is not working, there are still many voices of support for Bitcoin.
For example, at the Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver, former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said in an interview that as part of a basket of reserve currencies,Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies Could Replace the Dollar. Harper sees central bank digital currencies as somewhat inevitable, but could be affected by global monetary policy.
For example, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence H. Summers was asked in an interview whether there is a bubble in Bitcoin. In this regard, he said that he did not intend to predict the fluctuation of Bitcoin in the next six months. However, he believes that some institutions like Bitcoin, Bitcoin will continue to exist, andThe entire Bitcoin system will not collapse. Previously, the CEO of NYDIG also said that too large institutions are only interested in Bitcoin.
Today, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein refuted it. He said that although most institutional investors are most keen on investing in Bitcoin, Grayscale sees more and more investors trying to diversify their investments.For example, the Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust Fund and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund have attracted and distributed to many institutional investors, which has increased significantly compared to 18 months ago.
The meaning of Grayscale can be briefly summarized as that institutions are interested in Bitcoin, but not only in Bitcoin. Grayscale's BCH and ETH have grown significantly compared to 18 months ago, which he did not expect before, and institutions will allocate funds to assets other than Bitcoin.
According to the existing data of Grayscale’s holdings, Grayscale’s CEO expressed his optimism towards other assets. Among them, the most promising one is naturally ETH. The current market’s increasing holdings of ETH are increasing, and exchanges hold ETH. The ratio continues to drop and moves to offline wallets.The percentage of ETH held by exchanges is currently only 22.06%, compared to 26.33% five months ago.
For example, Pantera Capital, an encryption investment company, previously disclosed in an investor letter that the company has increased its holdings of Ethereum. Ethereum is undervalued relative to Bitcoin. Joey Krug, chief investment officer of Pantera Capital, pointed out that the growth of DeFi continues to have a positive impact on the price and fundamental value of ETH, because ETH is the base currency collateral of this new financial system.
Previously, giant whales purchased $3 billion in ETH in the past few weeks, accounting for nearly 20% of the exchange supply. This all proves that ETH will only attract more and more attention from investors.
Just imagine, the current price of Bitcoin is nearly 40,000, of course there is no lack of institutional buying, but there are doubts about whether some exchanges are too expensive and have limited potential, while ETH is worth it in terms of functionality and prospects. Institutional Holdings, Is Bitcoin Popular Now Because It's Money? No, but as an asset, and ETH can also participate as an asset. DeFi and ETH2.0 are still on an upward trend, which is where the capital of ETH value increases.
There is nothing wrong with being optimistic about the overall general direction, but you also need to pay attention to short-term risks.
JPMorgan strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the mass withdrawal of trend-following investors could hurt bitcoin unless the cryptocurrency "breaks" the $40,000 price level. Demand for bitcoin futures and the largest cryptocurrency trading fund, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, will provide clues about bitcoin's price outlook, they said."Flows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust will likely need to maintain a pace of $100 million per day for the next few days or weeks for such a price breakout to occur,Jr. strategists wrote in a report released on Friday (January 15).
Strategists at JPMorgan Chase believe that Bitcoin was in a similar situation at the end of November, except that the test was at $20,000 at the time. We have also mentioned this issue. The current market is very similar to the wave of shocks from the end of November to mid-December , but if the price of Bitcoin fails to break through $40,000, trend-following traders "may contribute to the pullback in the past week" and "the momentum signal will naturally weaken between now and the end of March."
In fact, it is not necessary. No matter how fierce the market rises, it is very normal to have a correction in the short term. Even the bull market of the US stock market will occasionally take a nap, let alone Bitcoin, which broke through more than 10,000 US dollars as soon as the market opened this year. Currency, if you look at the monthly line, even after such a long correction, there is still an increase of more than 25%, so there is no need to worry too much in the long run.
Short-term shocks are not a bad thing. Only after the shocks can the original oversold indicators return to normal, and only after returning to normal can the next wave of market prices be brewed with more peace of mind.
Going back to the market, the rhythm after the opening of the market today is very familiar. It has been exactly the same rhythm since Saturday, and it can even be extended to last Thursday. Basically, it is a rhythm that goes straight up after the market opens, and then pulls back. , This is a typical weekend rhythm, that is to say, the market has been going like this since last Thursday, but last Thursday was affected by the grayscale work, and finally closed up, while the bulls in other periods were relatively weak.
Today it seems to be a little bit tougher. After the market opened up and turned back, a rebound positive line that started at 3:00 p.m. directly covered the previous decline, which means that it has bottomed out and rebounded within the day.
From the point of view of BOLL, today is a rebound formed after stepping back on the support of BOLL's middle rail, and it was the same yesterday. In addition to the support experience of the previous few times, the daily BOLL has played a very important role in supporting, generally supporting It is supported, and it may need to be shaken, but the middle rail of BOLL also comes with a rebound, which can be said to be the spiritual pillar of the bulls in the near future.
At the same time, what needs to be worried is that the negative decline will continue in the future. If the market is directly smashed, it may be strongly resisted by the bulls.
mainstream currency
mainstream currency
At present, the trend of other currencies is relatively average. Only ETH is worthy of attention. The current stability at $1,220 reflects the strength of the market. However, what is interesting is that when it fell in the first two days, ETH generally fell or even rose slightly, while Today, the rhythm of rebounding following the correction of Bitcoin is not as good as that of Bitcoin. What mainstream currencies need most at the moment is to confirm the direction and give confidence to BTC after a big rise. After BTC starts to fluctuate, there will be no financial pressure. Have a chance to explode.
In fact, there is nothing to say about mainstream currencies at the moment. There is a saying that is true, any currency will rise in a bull market, but the time period is different. Of course, it refers to the original valuable currency. Don't worry too much about, say, EOS and XRP.
ETH：Regardless of being dragged down, being able to continue to run above $1220 is enough to show that it is strong enough, and unlike BTC that has always tested the BOLL mid-rail support, ETH has not tried it again since January 11, and at most it is close to the BOLL mid-rail support. In this wave of rebound, ETH is the "leader" of mainstream currencies and even Bitcoin. If there is an opportunity for a callback, it can be properly seized. ETH must be indispensable for the future outbreak. We have previously It was said during the callback of ETH that if the price returns below $1,000, you can buy it boldly. At present, it is difficult to see 3-digit ETH again.
LTC：It has been criticized by the market recently, it is too disappointing, but I really have to cry out for LTC. In such a mainstream currency market, LTC has no chance to perform. The G point of the current market is not here. We said above that in the bull market All currencies will rise, but the rising time is different. This includes LTC. Cherish the current weak time and show it when you have the opportunity.
BCH：Previously, all node development teams of BCH jointly issued a statement: No protocol changes will be added to the new version of BCH in May this year. This means that it is impossible for BCH to fork during the bull market, and the probability is 0%. Is this considered to stabilize the morale of the army? Maybe the BCH team is too embarrassed to fork?
It is not strong in the short term. For currencies like BCH, you can consider a relatively unique way of playing. When the callback occurs, buy a coin with a small position, and then don’t worry about it or watch the market, unless a certain One day you heard someone in the market say that BCH has risen sharply, and when it is time to buy, you should quickly close your position.
Then operate repeatedly in this way. Only in this way can there be a chance to make money. After the market rises, don't think about taking it for the long term. The price/performance ratio is too low, so it is suitable for the swing market.
BSV：In the absence of BCH, it is difficult for BSV to have any special reaction. It is also a forked currency. BCH still has a development team working on it. Satoshi Omoto has disappeared for a year, and BSV has also drifted with the tide for a year, and there is still no hope for the time being.
XRP：There has not been any new capital inflow recently, and the market volatility is relatively small, so there is no need to spend energy to pay attention at present.
EOS：platform currency
platform currency
Platform coins performed well today, and most of them have the intention of rushing higher. The trend is between DeFi concept coins and mainstream coins. It is considered to be rising but not so strong. The bigger factor is that there are also mining projects on various platforms, which are affected by the outbreak of DeFi. benefits.
It is understandable that BNB has risen the most. Previously, Binance’s BSC “air for big cake” incident showed that the assets and customers on BSC should not be underestimated. , so this time the DeFi active BNB currency price seems to be rising again. In addition, those hoarding OKB in the near future can relax a little bit. Currently OKT is officially out for trading. Look at the performance of OKT’s trading in the past few days, and then decide how to choose, whether to switch to OKT or continue to cultivate OKB.
DeFi
DeFi may be crazy today. After YAMV3 rose by nearly 100% within a day, YAMV2 rose by more than 250% within 24 hours. Looking at the market, it is obvious that a horizontal line suddenly pulled up, and the signs of being pulled are obvious. The transaction volume of YAMV2 and YAMA3 is not large, one is only more than 2 million a day, and the other is more than 500 million. They belong to the kind of currency that is very easy to pull, and the reference value of this kind of proportion is not large.
What is really valuable is the overall rise. A total of 82 DeFi concept coins have been collected on Feixiaohao. Up to now, only 8 coins have fallen, and more than half of them have risen by more than 10%. Hot money is really meaty. Bogey, this also shows that the current DeFi market may be caught in irrational prosperity, and we should remain vigilant.
DeFi may usher in a different development in 2021. Decentralized finance is free enough, but it is also a hotbed of criminals. Previously, SEC officials said blindly that DeFi is beautiful and promising, but it should be regulated. This is basically It is the consensus on DeFi this year.
Polkadot
Polkadot
Like Polkadot’s current ecology, most of them are Chinese capital. In addition to DOT and Kusama, among the remaining 11 ecological projects found in the current Polkadot ecological project, including ANKR, ChainX, Jiyu, Celer, Darwinia/KTON, Eight projects, including Phala, MantraDAO, and Crust, all have Chinese capital behind them, which can be said to account for half of the current Polkadot eco-popular projects.
The popular Polkadot parachain slot auction now reminds people of the EOS super node election where demons danced wildly. Almost all currency circle institutions have announced to join the node election in order to gain popularity.
Why do so many people compare EOS and DOT? Because the current DOT is very similar to the original EOS. The characteristics of the current DOT, such as overseas well-known leaders, Chinese fanaticism, and slot auctions, have all appeared in EOS before. The biggest difference between them is that EOS was born in a bear market, while Polkadot was born in a bull market, which led to a very different start of the two.
If there is no growth, the bear market will deal a huge blow to the originally fragile ecology, but in the bull market, everyone will be more fault-tolerant. Even if the currency price falls or something goes wrong, the market will pull the price up.
In fact, most of Polkadot’s supporters in the market now care about the currency price, what is the Ethereum killer, what is the ten thousand chains unified or ten thousand chains parallel, they don’t care at all, they just hope that the currency price will rise now, and then they will play their own role in the end. Will not be the taker.
Still the same sentence, when the only thing that can be sold for a project is the currency price, then the current currency price will return to the original value range of the project sooner or later.
Filecoin
Recently, many friends have asked when Filecoin will rise, so let me tell you more, in fact, the most sad thing in the concept of filecoin is not the currency holders, but the investors who frantically bought mining machines and cloud computing power before it came out. I'm really sorry for his overwhelming publicity back then. The news at that time was not as bad as that of DOT now, right? Of course not referring to the connection between the two, but to this atmosphere.
From August to September 2020, all major currency circle websites were promoting the Filecoin computing power pool. Now it is calm, and there is no place to defend rights. A considerable part of selling mining machines and computing power came out of Filecoin It's time to run away. However, it is expected that there will still be opportunities for speculation in the future. It is a short-term speculation and a flash in the pan. If you want to get it, you can continue to get it.
